SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in August 2025 and Forecast for September

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in August 2025 and Forecast for September

Copper Cathode

In August, SMM's China copper cathode production decreased by 2,800 mt MoM, down 0.24%, but rose 15.59% YoY. Cumulative production from January-August increased by 978,800 mt YoY, up 12.30%.

The slight decline in August copper cathode production can be attributed to several factors: 1) Only three smelters underwent maintenance in August, affecting just 4,000 mt. 2) Two new smelters in east China continued ramping up output, though the pace was slightly slower than expected. 3) While the "Notice on Implementing Policies Related to Regulating Investment Promotion Activities" has been issued, its impact on scrap-derived anode and scrap-derived cathode production remains relatively small, as most such enterprises still maintain raw material inventories and have long-term contracts with downstream customers, making them reluctant to breach agreements. However, many plan to cut production starting September, as reflected in operating rates—the operating rate for smelters not using copper concentrates (relying on scrap or anodes) fell 0.4 percentage points MoM to 68.1% in August. 4) Sulphuric acid prices remained at yearly highs in August, effectively offsetting smelting losses, but began pulling back in mid-to-late August, showing signs of peaking. A sustained decline could dampen smelter production enthusiasm. 5) Copper concentrate TCs jumped initially and then pulled back. As of August 29, the weekly imported copper concentrate index stood at -$41.48/mt, down $3.8/mt from mid-August highs, with further declines expected.

In summary, the sample operating rate for China's copper cathode industry in August was 87.97%, down 0.21 percentage points MoM. By scale, large smelters' operating rate rose 0.21 percentage points to 91.33%, medium smelters' increased 0.66 percentage points to 86.28%, while small smelters' rate dropped 7.67 percentage points to 59.61%. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates stood at 92.1%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, while that of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode instead) was 68.1%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM.

In September, our survey indicates that five smelters will undergo maintenance, involving a smelting capacity of 1 million mt. The production loss due to maintenance is expected to increase by 14,000 mt MoM. Beyond routine maintenance, widespread production cuts (accounting for 60% of our survey sample) caused by tight copper anode supply are the primary reason for the significant production decline in September. This is also reflected in the sharp drop in the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode instead), which fell to 59.9%, down 8.3 percentage points MoM. We anticipate this situation may persist until year-end. The implementation of the NDRC Document No. 770 (2025) will determine the production of anode plates from scrap and profoundly impact copper cathode output.

Based on production schedules, SMM estimates that domestic copper cathode production in September will decline by 52,500 mt (down 4.48% MoM) but increase by 114,700 mt (up 11.42% YoY). Cumulative production from January to September is projected to rise by 1.0935 million mt (up 12.20% YoY). The sample operating rate for the copper cathode industry in September was 84.04%, down 3.93 percentage points MoM. Specifically, large smelters recorded an operating rate of 88.78% (down 2.56 percentage points MoM), medium smelters at 79.2% (down 7.08 percentage points MoM), and small smelters at 52.78% (down 6.83 percentage points MoM). The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 89%, down 3 percentage points MoM, while that of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode) was 59.9%, down 8.3 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect October production to continue declining, as six smelters are scheduled for maintenance, and copper anode supply will remain tight.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM. August marked the transition between off-peak and peak seasons, with some regions reporting early signs of demand recovery. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic smelters rebounded MoM, rising 1.3 percentage points to 75.07% this month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, domestic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased 10.38% YoY and 4.68% MoM to approximately 930,600 mt.

Capacity changes: By end-August, SMM estimated domestic existing aluminum capacity at around 45.79 million mt (SMM adjusted the figure in late April by eliminating double calculations after taking into account capacity replacement and old plant dismantling), with operating capacity at about 44 million mt. Domestic operating aluminum capacity edged up MoM in August, accompanied by a slight MoM increase in operating rates, primarily due to:

1) The commissioning of Phase II capacity replacement projects in Shandong-Yunnan;

2) Partial commissioning of earlier replacement projects in Guizhou;

3) Gradual pot restarts at technological transformation projects in Guangxi;

4) Limited production resumptions at idle capacity in Yunnan.

Production forecast: Entering September 2025, domestic operating aluminum capacity is expected to rise further marginally as replacement projects gradually commence operations, with pots that were started earlier achieving output. Daily average ingot production will grow. Regarding liquid aluminum ratios, with September approaching the traditional peak season, some companies reported plans to increase direct liquid aluminum sales in September, likely pushing the ratio slightly higher. Subsequent attention should focus on traditional seasonal demand realization, commissioning pace of replacement projects, and liquid aluminum ratio trends.

Alumina

SMM data showed China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.15% MoM and 7.16% YoY. As of August month-end, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity stood at around 110.32 million mt, with operating capacity up 1.15% MoM and operating rate at 82.6%.

August saw both increases and decreases in alumina operating capacity, with a net increase of approximately 1.04 million mt. On one hand, the average spot alumina price remained moderate, and daily cost-profit models showed theoretical industry profits exceeding 300 yuan/mt, maintaining strong production incentives. Some plants raised operating capacity, while newly commissioned projects further ramped up output. On the other hand, minor production cuts occurred at individual plants due to raw material issues. Northern facilities reduced calcination loads for the September 3 military parade, and southern plants conducted routine maintenance, collectively tempering output growth.

By region:

August witnessed severe regional divergence in spot alumina prices, with south China prices remaining relatively firm. This was partly due to ongoing maintenance at alumina facilities in the south, preventing sustained high operating rates. Southern annualized operating capacity fell by around 270,000 mt MoM, while northern capacity increased by approximately 1.3 million mt.

September outlook: Spot alumina prices remain in the doldrums, but most producers still operate above breakeven levels with limited output reduction plans. Only routine maintenance extending into early September and calcination load reductions for the military parade are confirmed. Metallurgical alumina operating capacity is expected to increase slightly to around 91.35 million mt/year in September.

Overseas aluminum

SMM data shows overseas aluminum production rose 2.9% YoY in August 2025, with monthly average operating rate flat MoM at 88.8% but up 0.5% YoY. Cumulative January-August 2025 production increased 2.9% YoY.

On August 7th, Century Aluminium in the US announced the restart of a 50,000 mt production line at its Mt. Holly facility in South Carolina, gradually increasing the plant's operating rate from the current 75% to full capacity. The production resumption plan, costing approximately $50 million, aims to achieve full production by June 30, 2026, marking the first time since 2015. Additionally, South 32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique, Africa, has yet to reach agreements with the government and energy supplier HCB. South 32 announced plans to place Mozal under care & maintenance by March 2026, resulting in a $372 million impairment charge. The company expects its equity production for FY26 (July 1, 2025 - June 30, 2026) to drop to around 240,000 mt (compared to 355,000 mt in FY25). The smelter has a total capacity of 580,000 mt and produced 511,000 mt in 2024.

Alcoa announced that the delayed production resumption due to the nationwide blackout in spring resumed progress in August. The company previously aimed to gradually complete the restart and increase operating load by mid-2026.

Looking ahead to September, PT. Kemajuan Aluminium Industry in Indonesia is expected to start production at the beginning of the month, with the first batch of products to be produced in October. Additionally, Vedanta's Balco aluminum smelter in India is gradually ramping up output. Overseas aluminum operating rates are projected at 88.7% in September, down 0.2% MoM but up 0.4% YoY.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production rose 7.2% YoY in August 2025. The average operating rate of overseas alumina producers increased to 81.6%, up 0.5% MoM and 1.5% YoY. By the end of August, cumulative production in 2025 had risen 3.8% YoY. The monthly increase was primarily driven by Indonesia: PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), a subsidiary of Nanshan Holding, began feeding raw materials for its Phase III (1 million mt/year) in June and produced its first batch of alumina in July. Full capacity is expected by year-end, after which the Phase IV commissioning plan will commence immediately. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Borneo Alumindo alumina refinery commenced construction of its second-phase "coal-to-gas" energy facility on August 11, aiming to reduce costs and enhance operational stability.

In the Americas, Century Aluminum announced it will invest up to $30 million in its Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica by 2026 to lower energy consumption and increase the operating rate from 80% to 100%. The plant has a total capacity of 1.4 million mt.

Looking ahead to September, global metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to rise 7.4% YoY, with the operating rate reaching 82.1%, up 0.5% MoM and 2.3% YoY.

Primary Lead

China's primary lead production edged up in August 2025, increasing 0.32 percentage points MoM and 2.92 percentage points YoY. Cumulative primary lead output from January to August rose 8.23 percentage points YoY.

According to sources, medium-to-large primary lead smelters in central, northern, and east China gradually resumed operations after maintenance in August, contributing to an expected supply increase. However, some smelters in northern, northeastern, and southern China recorded unexpected output declines due to maintenance and ore undersupply, resulting in smaller-than-expected production increase for the month.

For September, primary lead smelters face more maintenance schedules, particularly at large facilities in central China planning shutdowns this month, which may become the key factor dragging down output. Meanwhile, production resumptions at smelters in northeastern and northern China after maintenance will partially offset the decline. SMM expects September primary lead output to drop 1.3 percentage points MoM.

Additionally, robust demand for lead concentrates in August-September kept smelters in fierce competition for feedstock, driving lead concentrate TCs downward. SMM's September imported ore pb60 monthly TC settled at -110~(-70) $/dmt, down $30/dmt MoM, with more transactions occurring around -150 $/dmt. This also implies higher lead smelting costs and shrinking profits, which have dampened production enthusiasm among lead smelters. Some smelters with planned maintenance have indicated they currently maintain a certain inventory of crude lead, meaning the impact on primary lead production will be limited even if the smelting system undergoes maintenance.

Secondary Lead

In August 2025, secondary lead production growth fell short of expectations, rising 0.71% MoM and up 7.73% YoY. Secondary refined lead production declined 3.54% MoM but increased 1.98% YoY.

The slight increase in secondary lead production in August was mainly due to the resumption of production at a secondary crude lead smelter in central China after maintenance and the unstable output at another secondary crude lead smelter in east China following its restart. The minor decline in secondary refined lead production was attributed to: (1) Reductions or halts in production at most smelters in east and north China due to tight raw material supply and severe losses, as well as a shutdown at a secondary lead smelter in south-west China due to equipment failure mid-month. The total reduction exceeded 40,000 mt. (2) Incremental output from a large smelter in Inner Mongolia and a medium-sized smelter in Anhui, both of which resumed production in late July and ramped up normally in August. Additionally, a newly built large secondary lead capacity in south-west China officially came online in late July, contributing incremental output in August. A large smelter in Jiangxi also reported restored production to normal levels in August due to improved raw material arrivals. The combined incremental output exceeded 30,000 mt.

Entering September, large smelters in east and north China still plan to reduce or halt production, primarily due to weak confidence in end-use consumption and bearish views on lead prices, with only a few undergoing routine maintenance. Coupled with tight scrap battery supply in north China during the September 3 military parade, smelters' raw material restocking may be delayed until mid-September, further limiting production. SMM estimates secondary refined lead production in September will decrease by approximately 40,000 mt MoM.

Refined Zinc

In August 2025, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased over 3% MoM and around 28% YoY. Cumulative production from January to August rose more than 7% YoY, exceeding expectations. In August, domestic zinc alloy production increased MoM. Entering August, production at domestic smelters rose, with production resumptions from maintenance being the main focus in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hunan, and Guangxi, in addition to routine maintenance in Hunan and Gansu. Meanwhile, new capacity continued to be released in Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Yunnan, driving overall production to a new high.

SMM expects China's refined zinc production in September 2025 to decline by over 2% MoM but increase by over 22% YoY, with cumulative production from January to September 2025 projected to rise by over 9% YoY. In September, smelter maintenance will mainly occur in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan, while some secondary zinc producers may reduce output due to rising raw material prices and tight supply. However, production increases in Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Hubei will partially offset the decline, leading to an overall downward adjustment in output.

Refined Tin

According to SMM's market-based processing data, China's refined tin production in August 2025 fell by 3.45% MoM and 0.5% YoY. The decline was primarily due to maintenance-related shutdowns at some enterprises, with regional breakdowns as follows:

Customs data shows that China imported 10,278 mt of tin concentrates (physical content) in July 2025, down slightly MoM. Imports from Africa (DRC and Nigeria) decreased due to prolonged shipping cycles and geopolitical disruptions such as stalled power agreement negotiations in the DRC. Imports from Myanmar remained sluggish as the rainy season hindered production resumptions despite mining license approvals, compounded by Thailand's land transport ban (prohibiting transit shipments), making short-term supply improvements unlikely.

Yunnan: Raw material shortages remain severe, with smelter inventories generally below 30 days. One company has largely completed maintenance and is preparing to resume production, expecting tin ingot output next month. However, as another smelter plans maintenance in September, overall tin ingot production in Yunnan may continue to decline.

Jiangxi region:

Scrap supply chain disruption: The tin scrap recycling system was under pressure, with secondary material circulation volume dropping over 30%. The undersupply of crude tin directly constrained refined production growth. Most smelters maintained normal operations.

Other regions:

Dual raw material shortage: Both tin concentrates and tin scrap supplies remained weak, keeping operating rates persistently below 70% of planned capacity. Some smelters scheduled maintenance, further suppressing output, with operating rates at certain facilities already hitting yearly lows.

Based on SMM calculations, September refined tin production is expected to drop 29.89% MoM. Key drivers: Maintenance shutdowns at some smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi.

Refined nickel

In August 2025, SMM's refined nickel production rose 7% MoM and 21% YoY, with cumulative growth reaching 26% YoY. Domestic refined nickel smelters operated at 66% capacity. Top-tier enterprises boosted operating rates while other smelters maintained stable output, driving overall production higher. Price-wise, the August average spot price for #1 refined nickel stood at 121,945 yuan/mt, down 292 yuan/mt MoM, showing weak fluctuations. In spot markets, Jinchuan nickel's average premium reached 2,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt MoM, reflecting strong producer reluctance to budge on prices. Mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums/discounts remained relatively stable in the -100-300 yuan/mt range. Demand-side, August stayed in downstream consumption off-season, with alloy/electroplating plants showing weak procurement interest—only stockpiling essentials during futures price dips. Spot trading volume showed little change from July. With the approaching September-October peak season, downstream orders are expected to recover, demand to rebound, and spot market activity to intensify.

September refined nickel output is projected to increase 4% MoM, with new refined nickel projects gradually coming online sustaining production growth.

NPI

China's August NPI production rose 4.89% MoM in physical content terms and 11.77% MoM in metal content terms. China's NPI physical content and metal content both increased MoM in August. NPI prices continued to rebound during the month, with production exceeding expectations. Supply side, Philippine nickel ore prices saw a slight correction in August, but core costs such as auxiliary materials and electricity prices kept rising, keeping NPI cost lines firm and providing bottom support for NPI prices. Demand side, macro sentiment coupled with peak season expectations stabilized stainless steel futures, while downstream consumption gradually recovered as the peak season approached, with stainless steel inventory continuing destocking. Overall, supported by both supply and demand factors, NPI prices kept recovering, smelter profitability improved moderately, and downstream purchases increased, leading to higher NPI physical content and metal content in August.

Looking ahead, with the September-October peak season approaching, SMM expects stainless steel production to grow further in September, driving China's NPI physical content up 4.22% MoM and metal content up 3.92% MoM. Supported by recovering demand and firm cost lines, SMM forecasts further NPI price increases in September.

Indonesian NPI

Indonesia's NPI production in physical content rose 1.15% MoM in August 2025, while production in metal content increased 2.60% MoM. As NPI prices rose during the month, Indonesian smelters saw improved profitability and higher output. Driven by economic benefits and downstream demand, NPI grades also increased MoM, resulting in higher physical and metal content.

SMM projects Indonesia's NPI production in physical content to grow 1.10% MoM and production in metal content to rise 1.27% MoM in September 2025. With the peak season arriving and losses gradually easing, SMM expects Indonesian smelters' operating rates to continue recovering.

Nickel sulphate

According to SMM data, China's nickel sulphate production is estimated at approximately 30,500 mt in metal content (or 138,500 mt in physical content) in August 2025, up 4.80% MoM but down 4.19% YoY. Demand side, approaching the September-October peak season for auto sales, new orders at some precursor plants increased in August, driving higher demand for nickel sulphate. Supply side, production ramped up at some plants, while integrated enterprises stockpiled nickel sulphate, leading to increased nickel sulphate supply in the market.

Looking ahead to September, nickel raw materials supply is expected to remain tight, but precursor plants' demand for nickel sulphate will further rise. Nickel sulphate supply is projected to grow slightly. SMM estimates nickel sulphate production will increase to approximately 31,700 mt in metal content by September, with physical output expected at 144,100 mt, up 4.02% MoM but down 2.23% YoY.

Battery-grade manganese sulphate

In August 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production rose significantly MoM and also achieved YoY growth. Supply side, manganese salt plants actively maintained production schedules this month, coupled with stockpiling demand ahead of the September-October peak season, boosting long-term contract fulfillment and revitalizing market activity. This directly drove a notable MoM increase in supply, with manufacturers steadily delivering long-term contracts. However, spot orders remained sluggish without inventory hoarding, as most manganese salt plants adopted a produce-based-on-sales approach, while ternary cathode precursor plants mainly made just-in-time procurement.

For September, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to sustain stable growth, further boosting manganese salt plant output. High-purity manganese sulphate production is projected to rise MoM again while maintaining YoY growth momentum.

EMD

In August 2025, EMD production showed a "slight MoM decline but YoY increase." Key reasons: primary battery market was in the traditional off-season, with MnO2 manufacturers focusing on existing order deliveries amid limited new orders. High temperatures also disrupted battery production stability, prompting destocking as the primary goal and hindering output growth. Meanwhile, fierce competition in the LMO market led many firms to switch to cost-effective Mn3O4, reducing demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery and preventing production schedule increases. Looking ahead to September, driven by the traditional September-October peak season and multiple macro tailwinds in the manganese market, corporate production schedules are expected to further increase, with potential new orders emerging. Overall, EMD production in September is projected to show an upward trend.

Mn3O4

In August 2025, Mn3O4 production exhibited a trend of "slight MoM decline but positive YoY growth." By product grade, both electronic-grade and battery-grade Mn3O4 output decreased. The reasons are as follows: First, the LMO market experienced significant volatility in August, leading downstream buyers to adopt a cautious approach toward battery-grade Mn3O4 procurement. Mn3O4 producers focused on maintaining normal operations without additional inventory buildup. Second, although the LMFP market is in its development phase and still relies on Mn3O4 as a manganese source, its slow growth rate has limited support for the battery-grade Mn3O4 market. Additionally, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market entered its traditional off-season, with producers prioritizing stable output levels and fulfilling existing orders amid weak demand. Looking ahead to September, market sentiment is optimistic. As the LMO market may recover slightly, it will further boost demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, driving higher planned production. Overall, Mn3O4 output in September is expected to maintain an upward trajectory, with YoY growth remaining positive.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production continued to rise in August 2025, up 1% MoM and 1.76% YoY. In northern Inner Mongolia, some producers conducted maintenance with output cuts, leading to a 1.07% MoM decline. Meanwhile, southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi leveraged the rainy season for concentrated production, resulting in an 8.7% MoM increase due to resumed and expanded operations.

Steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome dipped by 100-200 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in August, aligning with earlier bearish expectations. However, macro tailwinds supported gradual stainless steel price increases, boosting ferrochrome demand and contributing to stable market conditions. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices had already completed their decline ahead of schedule, prompting ferrochrome producers to increase purchases and stockpiling, thereby reducing production cost pressures. Additionally, the persistently low domestic ferrochrome production coupled with significant production cuts overseas has sustained a supply gap, stimulating active production among domestic ferrochrome producers and maintaining high operating rates.

Looking ahead to September 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to continue rising. On August 25, Tsingshan announced its September high-carbon ferrochrome tender price at 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 300 yuan MoM from August, exceeding the market's mainstream bullish expectation of 100-200 yuan. This significantly boosted market confidence, with retail ferrochrome prices rising in tandem, expanding producers' profit margins and sustaining high production enthusiasm. Many have plans to increase output. In northern Inner Mongolia, producers that had halted furnaces for maintenance resumed normal operations, while southern plants leveraged the rainy season's electricity price advantages to control production costs, concentrating production in September and further driving ferrochrome output growth. Moreover, South Africa's major chrome producer Glencore-Merafe repeatedly stated it has no plans to resume ferrochrome production within 2025, indicating overseas output will remain low and imported supply will continue declining. Concurrently, as the September-October peak season begins, downstream stainless steel market recovery has become evident, with high planned production boosting ferrochrome procurement demand. Under these dual positive factors, domestic ferrochrome producers are actively increasing output to fill the supply gap.

Stainless Steel

SMM survey data shows China's stainless steel production in August 2025 rose 3.62% MoM and 2.23% YoY. By series, 200-series output increased 8.97% MoM, 300-series rose 2.44% MoM, while 400-series declined 0.5% MoM.

Overall stainless steel production in August showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding, though slightly below early-month expectations. With the approaching September-October traditional peak season, output is trending upward. Supported by sustained favorable macro policies, stainless steel market confidence gradually recovered this month, with purchasing transactions improving compared to previous periods. Meanwhile, stainless steel social inventories continued to deplete during the month, with overall inventory levels pulling back to early-year levels, significantly easing destocking pressure. Additionally, as stainless steel prices gradually strengthened, losses of steel mills improved somewhat. Mills' raw material purchase demand progressively increased during the month, with production enthusiasm also rebounding.

Looking ahead to September, stainless steel production is expected to rise further. With the arrival of the traditional September-October peak season, although downstream end-user consumption recovery fell short of expectations, as extreme heat and rainstorms gradually subsided, infrastructure and property demand is gradually increasing. Market demand is anticipated to be in the process of recovery. Steel mills generally maintain strong confidence, with notably heightened raw material procurement activity recently. Prices of key inputs like nickel, chromium, and molybdenum have continued to strengthen. Furthermore, the continuous MoM decline in stainless steel inventories during July-August has alleviated mills' inventory pressure. Coupled with expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September and domestic quantitative easing policies, the market broadly holds bullish views on commodity prices. Stainless steel prices are projected to maintain their upward trajectory in September, supported by both improving supply-demand patterns and macro tailwinds. However, caution is warranted regarding potential constraints on price upside from slower-than-expected end-user consumption recovery.

EMM

In August 2025, EMM production increased MoM. The primary drivers were: rebounding stainless steel production downstream, coupled with sustained macro policy support, which gradually restored market confidence in stainless steel this month. Purchase transactions improved compared to previous periods, consequently driving EMM procurement demand higher and prompting manganese plants to adjust production schedules upward. Additionally, a few previously idled plants resumed operations in August, slightly boosting market activity. Looking ahead to September, with the traditional September-October peak season approaching, although downstream end-user consumption recovery remains below expectations, as extreme weather subsides, infrastructure and property demand is gradually being released. Market demand is expected to be in the process of recovery. Overall, EMM production in September is expected to increase MoM.

SiMn alloy

In August 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production showed a notable increase, rising both YoY and MoM. Regionally, the growth mainly came from south China, with Yunnan recording the highest output increase, while Guangxi and Guizhou also saw slight MoM growth. Northern regions also reported varying degrees of production growth.

The MoM production increase in August was driven by two factors. First, the SiMn market sentiment remained positive, boosting factory operating enthusiasm. At the end of July, the national "anti-rat race" policy was introduced, discouraging excessive price competition in the industry. This strengthened bullish expectations for SiMn prices, driving futures prices higher. In early-mid August, the initial positive impact of the policy continued, with SiMn alloy prices fluctuating at highs, further boosting producer confidence. Operating enthusiasm rose in both northern and southern markets, particularly in Yunnan, where factories benefited from rainy season electricity discounts, leveraging cost advantages to maintain active production. Second, HBIS's August tender price and volume both increased MoM, enhancing delivery enthusiasm and market activity. Additionally, many SiMn alloy producers in north and south China engaged in high-price hedging in early August, effectively locking in profits while easing future delivery pressure. These multiple factors contributed to the production growth.

Looking ahead to September 2025, SiMn alloy production is likely to continue rising. On one hand, cost advantages in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia will persist, while Yunnan remains in the rainy season discount period, with most factories expressing no intention to cut production. On the other hand, the September-October peak season will drive stronger rigid demand for SiMn alloy. Moreover, ahead of the National Day holiday, steel mills may restock early, further boosting production.

Silicon wafer

In August, silicon wafer producers slightly raised output, with production up 6.24% MoM. In the month, the PV "anti-rat race" conference was held in Beijing. Following the polysilicon price hike, top-tier silicon wafer producers began raising quotes and actively purchasing raw materials, boosting market sentiment. By size, 18X and 210 generally outperformed 210R in shipments, a fact corroborated by the differentiated price increases across battery sizes. Based on these developments, silicon wafer output is expected to continue rising in September.

Polysilicon

Domestic polysilicon production in August increased approximately 22.29% MoM from July. The notable growth was driven by seasonal production releases during the rainy season, with Yunnan and Sichuan reaching relative output peaks, lifting overall output. September output was initially projected to rise further, but industry self-regulation may lead to a MoM decline, primarily due to reduced production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market exchanges, silicon metal production in August 2025 increased 14% MoM but decreased 19% YoY. From January to August 2025, cumulative silicon metal production fell 20% YoY.

The significant MoM increase in August was mainly driven by higher operating rates in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Xinjiang alone contributed nearly 20,000 mt of monthly production growth, primarily due to production resumptions at some top-tier enterprises. Yunnan and Sichuan saw seasonal operating rate increases during the rainy season. Additionally, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia recorded minor production increments.

September's total silicon metal output is expected to rise further. First, furnaces added in August will reflect output in September, coupled with anticipated production expansions by leading enterprises. Second, production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season are likely to occur by late October or early November, leaving minimal supply-side reductions in September. Silicon metal production is projected to grow around 5% MoM in September.

PV Module

Module producers raised their August production schedules, with output up 3.75% MoM. Recent module demand softened as overseas stockpiling concluded, and domestic distributed demand dipped. However, rising module costs signal a clear upward price trend ahead. Manufacturers increased output to build lower-cost inventory. August module schedules are expected to edge up further, with a projected 2.45% MoM rise in operating rates.

Solar Cell

Solar cell production rose 1.4% MoM in August. Export policies spurred overseas orders, with producers prioritizing deliveries amid strong domestic demand for large-format high-efficiency wafers. The market remained in tight supply-demand balance, with minimal inventory buildup.

PV Film

PV film industry production schedules climbed 6.24% MoM in August. The primary reason was a slight increase in module production schedules in August, with some film manufacturers experiencing higher operating rates. Module production schedules in September continue to show an upward trend, and overall film production is expected to increase slightly.

PV-grade EVA

PV-grade EVA production schedules rose 15.91% MoM in August. This was mainly due to the completion of maintenance at some petrochemical enterprises. According to SMM, module production schedules in September are expected to increase slightly, with overall film manufacturer operating rates likely to rise. Some petrochemical enterprises have received PV orders or shifted production to PV-grade materials, coupled with the completion of maintenance at other petrochemical enterprises, leading to an anticipated upward trend in PV-grade material production in September.

PV glass

Domestic PV glass production declined again in August, down 1.26% MoM from July. The number of production days remained unchanged, with the drop primarily attributed to the impact of earlier cold repairs and idled capacity, reducing domestic operating capacity. However, no additional furnaces underwent cold repairs in August, and nearly 1,500 mt/day of furnace capacity resumed production, resulting in higher-than-expected output. Supply side, September will see fewer production days, leading to an overall decline in glass output. However, with higher prices expected to boost production willingness, the decrease is likely to be limited, estimated at a 1.35% MoM drop in operating rates from August.

DMC

Domestic silicone DMC production rose 11.7% MoM and 2.8% YoY in August. Previously idled units in Zhejiang resumed normal operations, while other regions maintained relatively high dimethyldichlorosilane plant utilization rates. Although some plants initiated maintenance plans and reduced loads by month-end, the impact was relatively small for the entire month, leading to a significant production increase. Looking ahead, lower operating rates at some dimethyldichlorosilane plants and maintenance activities in September are expected to result in a slight MoM decline of about 2.4% in silicone production.

Magnesium ingots

SMM data shows China's primary magnesium output fell 1.50% MoM in August 2025, with operating rates declining to 60.95%.

In August, primary magnesium smelters in major producing regions remained under routine maintenance. Currently, six smelters underwent maintenance in August, with two large-capacity facilities included. Notably, two primary magnesium smelters that began maintenance in late July resumed production in August, while two others that restarted in July operated normally. One smelter that had been idle for two years recommissioned production at month-end. These developments would have boosted output, but persistent high temperatures continued to impair smelting efficiency. The production increase from resumed operations was outweighed by efficiency losses, resulting in an overall downward trend in primary magnesium output for August.

In September, previously idled smelters gradually resumed operations, with one facility scheduled for mid-to-late September restart to augment magnesium ingot supply. However, one smelter awaiting new equipment for retrofitting partially offset this growth. Overall, primary magnesium production is expected to increase 6.5% MoM in September. SMM will continue monitoring smelter operations.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows China's magnesium alloy production decreased 2.15% MoM but increased 4.72% YoY in August 2025, with operating rates declining to 58.68%.

High temperatures slowed commissioning progress at top-tier enterprises, though August output still recorded modest growth. The primary driver was new national EV standards imposing dual weight and plastic restrictions, prompting leading two-wheeler manufacturers like Yadea, Aima, and Luyuan to adopt magnesium alloys for lightweighting. One Guangdong-based die-casting manufacturer reported receiving orders for 20,000 sets of magnesium alloy components this month. Consequently, August alloy demand showed marked YoY improvement, with strong order performance driving upward production trends.

Looking ahead to September, magnesium alloys' market competitiveness is accelerating. As major producers intensify promotional efforts, their core cost-performance advantages are gaining industry-wide recognition. This positive development is driving tangible shifts in production strategies—some die-casters have begun process adjustments to progressively replace traditional aluminum with magnesium alloys. Although the current material substitution process has not yet generated large-scale orders and market demand remains in a gradual release phase, it has successfully driven a mild upward trend in overall magnesium alloy demand, laying the foundation for subsequent production growth and forming clear expectations. Supported by the earlier demand recovery and stable production-side preparations, magnesium alloy production is expected to show an upward trend in September.

Magnesium powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in August 2025 fell 10.41%, with the operating rate declining to 43.83%.

The magnesium powder market exhibited significant divergence in August. Affected by policy factors, producers showed opposite production trends, with some facing dual pressure from weak domestic and international demand. The sluggish domestic consumer market and shrinking procurement demand from global steel companies led to a decline in export orders, prompting some producers to voluntarily reduce capacity utilization rates. In contrast, others reported strong order performance, with their magnesium powder production showing an upward trend. However, the increased production from some producers was outweighed by the reductions, resulting in an overall downward trend in magnesium powder production for August.

Titanium dioxide

SMM data shows China's titanium dioxide production in August 2025 decreased 2.10% MoM.

The titanium dioxide market continued its production cut strategy this month. By mid-August, nearly 30 titanium dioxide producers collectively issued price adjustment notices, raising prices across all product grades. Domestic prices increased by an average of 500 yuan/mt, while export prices rose by an average of $50/mt. The earlier production cuts have gradually shown results, with effective inventory clearance across producers. Coupled with steady demand recovery downstream, the previous downward trend in the titanium dioxide market has been successfully halted. Looking ahead to September, as rigid demand gradually returns, titanium dioxide prices are expected to enter a steady upward trajectory. Current market performance shows sulfuric acid-process titanium dioxide prices have already taken the lead with a modest increase of about 200 yuan/mt, while chloride-process titanium dioxide prices remain in a low consolidation phase due to unresolved inventory pressure.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in August 2025 fell 9.39% MoM.

This month, some sponge titanium producers actively responded to the national "anti-rat race" policy by implementing production cuts, with planned reduction rates reaching 30% to proactively control market capacity. Another key factor was the downstream sector's inability to absorb the surplus supply after previous significant capacity expansions, pushing market prices into a downward trend. SMM survey data showed the actual production cuts were slightly smaller than announced plans, mainly due to multi-faceted cost-side adjustments requiring time for full implementation. Notably, the price decline showed signs of stabilization this month. Considering current market conditions, sponge titanium prices are expected to remain low in September.

Light Rare Earths

In August, Pr-Nd oxide production continued growing MoM, with major increments concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi, driven by higher operating rates at scrap recycling facilities. Some separation plants reported production impacts from reduced US ore imports, though increased monazite and domestic ore usage prevented significant operating rate declines. Long-term, raw ore output of rare earth oxides may contract starting Q4.

Pr-Nd alloy production dipped slightly MoM in August due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan. Inner Mongolia's output decline stemmed from reduced toll processing orders and ongoing plant renovations, while Sichuan saw temporary halts from production plan adjustments. Looking ahead to September, with the NdFeB industry entering peak season, stable metal enterprise orders suggest Pr-Nd alloy production may stabilize.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In August, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides continued to grow, primarily driven by the higher operating rates of scrap recycling enterprises, leading to a significant increase in rare earth oxide output from the recycling sector. However, production from raw ore producers showed no notable changes.

Recently, trading activity in the ion-adsorption ore market has been sluggish, with separation enterprises inclined to consume existing raw material inventories rather than actively procure. Additionally, some raw ore separation enterprises indicated plans to halt production starting in Q4, which may reduce the future circulation of medium-heavy rare earth oxides in the market. Downstream demand suggests that after the peak season ends, the demand for rare earth raw materials in Q4 may decline correspondingly, so a severe shortage of medium-heavy rare earth oxides is unlikely.

NdFeB

China's NdFeB magnetic material production in August 2025 showed a MoM decline, mainly due to the following factors: First, the prices of core raw materials for NdFeB - Pr-Nd oxide and alloy - remained high throughout July-August, dampening magnetic material enterprises' purchase willingness. The sharp price surge in the latter half of August further forced enterprises with insufficient raw material inventories to suspend order-taking and actively control order volumes to mitigate cost risks. Second, end-use demand weakened overall, with white goods such as air conditioners entering the traditional off-season after summer, and the waning effects of consumption-boosting policies. Meanwhile, the consumer electronics sector (e.g., smartphones and earphones) remained sluggish due to the conclusion of subsidy policies and the end of the back-to-school stockpiling cycle, prompting enterprises to adopt cautious procurement strategies, particularly for low-end magnetic material orders. Third, the NEV September-October peak season stockpiling cycle neared its end, slowing procurement across the industry chain. Compounded by heightened overseas trade barriers and accelerated technological substitution in certain sectors (e.g., ferrite replacing NdFeB in some low-end products, or enterprises modifying formulations to reduce Pr-Nd alloy usage), NdFeB demand was further suppressed. Lastly, macro policies such as export controls raised enterprise costs, while medium-heavy rare earth restrictions prompted downstream enterprises to adjust formulations, collectively reducing reliance on Pr-Nd materials. Coupled with accumulated social inventories of motors and end-use goods and strong market wait-and-see sentiment, these factors collectively exacerbated the production decline.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in August 2025 fell 8% MoM and 10.8% YoY. From January to August 2025, total molybdenum concentrate output dropped 0.3% YoY.

By province, August's domestic molybdenum concentrate mainly came from Shaanxi, Henan, and Heilongjiang. A mine in Henan undergoing technological transformation had relatively low output, resulting in a MoM decline of 1,090 mt in metal content for Henan. Inner Mongolia also saw reduced production MoM due to a mine not resuming operations. Other regions showed relatively small output fluctuations. Both YoY and MoM declines in August were attributed to mine suspensions, technological upgrades, and lower ore grades. With prolonged molybdenum resource extraction, market supply tightened during the month. Supported by rising demand from downstream sectors like ferromolybdenum, domestic molybdenum concentrate prices rose, with 45%-50% grade transactions reaching 4,530-4,560 yuan/mtu by month-end, up 5.8% from early August.

Entering September, the Henan mine's technological transformation may require more time, while other regions have limited capacity expansions. Domestic molybdenum concentrate operating rates are unlikely to rebound, with production expected to remain flat MoM. Future attention should focus on maintenance schedules and shipments from major mines.

Ferromolybdenum

SMM data shows China's ferromolybdenum output rose 4.08% MoM and 12.5% YoY in August 2025. Cumulative January-August production grew 9.9% YoY.

Strong downstream demand and rising steel tender prices improved industry profitability in August, boosting operating rates by 2 percentage points MoM to around 60%. Some producers still faced low operating rates due to molybdenum concentrate shortages. By province, Shaanxi saw an 800 mt MoM production increase, while Liaoning maintained stable output and Henan recorded slight growth.

Entering September, China's molybdenum-containing steel production, including stainless steel, is expected to maintain growth. In late August, domestic steel mills collectively entered the market, with ferromolybdenum procurement reaching 13,000 mt for the month, most of which requires delivery in September. September ferromolybdenum production is projected to increase slightly.

Ammonium paratungstate (APT)

SMM data shows China's APT production in August 2025 fell 10% MoM and 8% YoY, indicating significant industry contraction.

In August, domestic tungsten concentrate prices surged 33.6% monthly amid tight ore supply and scarcity, causing restocking difficulties for some APT producers and reduced operating rates. Some enterprises faced substantial cost pressure and opted for maintenance. By province, Jiangxi saw multiple plant shutdowns, reducing output by approximately 1,000 mt MoM, while Fujian and Hunan maintained stable production levels with order-based operations.

Entering September, tight tungsten concentrate supply persists with constrained market liquidity. APT producers continue facing high-cost pressures and raw material procurement challenges, limiting operational recovery. Meanwhile, end-user sectors like cemented carbide may see demand improvement during the September-October peak season, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the tungsten market. Subsequent monitoring should focus on domestic mining quota policies and mine shipment updates.

Silver

August 2025 silver output rose 0.43% MoM, balancing reduced production from routine maintenance at copper smelters in Yunnan and Gansu against increased output from restarted lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Henan. Other output changes included temporary reductions at a Shandong smelter (later restored by month-end) and minor increases from a new production line in Hunan. Entering September, autumn maintenance intensifies, with potential minor impacts on silver ingot production from lead smelter maintenance in Henan and copper smelter maintenance in Anhui/Inner Mongolia. Additionally, a Hunan lead smelter reported tight silver-lead ore supply, potentially causing slight September output declines. SMM forecasts refined silver production may drop 3% MoM in September.

Silver Nitrate

In August 2025, silver nitrate production increased 3.96% MoM, continuing its upward trend, despite some producers reporting sluggish downstream consumption orders from August to September, though better than early Q2. Additionally, a newly built silver nitrate capacity in Hunan, which had not been operating normally previously, saw a slight production increase in August. According to market sources, silver nitrate RC quotes stabilized overall by month-end, with multiple enterprises reporting minor losses amid low-price competition, suggesting limited price declines in September. Entering September, one producer stated it had already exceeded its cumulative planned production target for H1 (January-August), thus anticipating a potential 50% drop in operating rates during Q4. Silver nitrate producers are expected to maintain stable operations in September, with output likely to continue its slight accumulation trend.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversions, antimony cathode, etc.) rose approximately 22.5% MoM in August 2025. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers tracked by SMM, 13 remained idle (down 4 MoM), 18 reduced output (up 4 MoM), and 2 maintained normal production (unchanged MoM). After July’s total production fell below 4,000 mt, August output rebounded above this level. Many market participants viewed this as normal, though the 4,000 mt range remains far below typical operating levels. Imported ore supplies still cannot enter the domestic market in large volumes, with industry insiders expecting minimal fluctuations in national antimony ingot production in September 2025 compared to August, potentially stabilizing or showing slight variations.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has published its assessed national antimony ingot production (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversions, antimony cathode, etc.). Benefiting from SMM’s high coverage rate in the antimony sector, the survey encompasses 33 producers across 8 provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium pyroantimonate

According to SMM estimates, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate production in August 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 8.93% MoM. After months of significant production fluctuations, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate output rebounded in June but pulled back for two consecutive months in July and August, leading many market participants to lament the seasonal demand weakness during summer. Industry observers consider this normal, as July-August traditionally marks the off-season for PV glass producers' orders, coupled with overall weak antimony prices, making the production decline reasonable. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 13 surveyed producers, 4 were in shutdown or trial operation in August, while 1 producer reported some output growth. However, most manufacturers maintained stable or reduced production, resulting in a slight overall output decline. Market participants expect minimal likelihood of further MoM production drops in September, with output likely to stabilize or rebound slightly as the market exits the off-season.

Note: SMM began publishing national sodium pyroantimonate production assessments in July 2023. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey covers 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers across 6 provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and 99% capacity coverage.

Refined bismuth

SMM estimates show China's refined bismuth production in August 2025 rose about 14% MoM. Following a sudden sharp decline in May, bismuth output maintained a downward trend for two consecutive months before rebounding in August, as anticipated by many market participants. They noted that the recent month-long continuous price decline reflects supply pressure from increased availability, though the 14% rebound remains relatively small. With overall bismuth raw material supply still tight, production is expected to remain at low levels. From detailed data, among SMM's 24 surveyed producers, three saw significant production increases in August, while none experienced notable declines, with the rest showing relatively small changes. Many market participants expect that tight raw material supply for domestic bismuth producers will remain difficult to alleviate in September, with production likely to continue being constrained. Refined bismuth output is expected to remain stable or rise slightly, while the possibility of another significant drop is relatively small.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its national refined bismuth production assessment. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey covers 24 producers across eight provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In August 2025, China's monthly lithium carbonate production hit a new record, surpassing the 85,000 mt mark, up 5% MoM and surging 39% YoY. The growth was still primarily driven by spodumene-derived output, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical plants in full swing. Meanwhile, sustained downstream demand also boosted overall industry supply capacity.

By raw material: Spodumene-derived output saw significant growth, while lepidolite-derived output posted a clear pullback.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production rose 19% MoM. On one hand, strong downstream demand prompted some flexible production lines to shift to lithium carbonate, contributing to the increase. On the other, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates due to futures hedging profits, further driving output growth.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production fell 24% MoM. A leading mine in Jiangxi halted operations due to licensing issues, with its affiliated lithium chemical plant maintaining minimal output in August using ore inventory and spot orders. However, production dropped significantly compared to previous high operating rates. Other lepidolite-based lithium chemical producers maintained relatively stable operations. Overall, affected by leading mines and their associated lithium chemical plants, lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate output showed a significant decline.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 12% MoM, mainly due to production cuts and suspensions at some salt lake enterprises caused by extraction issues, while other enterprises maintained stable operations under favorable weather conditions.

Recycled lithium carbonate: Total production in August rose 14% MoM, primarily benefiting from higher lithium carbonate prices, which boosted recyclers' production enthusiasm, though the overall output scale remained limited.

In September, the lithium carbonate market still faces policy uncertainty regarding mines in Jiangxi. However, as the deadline for submitting relevant reports has not yet passed, these mines currently maintain normal production. Additionally, new production lines are expected to commence operations in both spodumene and salt lake segments, coupled with downstream demand entering the traditional peak season, sustaining positive market expectations. Lithium carbonate total production in September is projected to retain growth potential. SMM will continue closely monitoring the implementation of mine policies in Jiangxi.

Lithium hydroxide

SMM data shows China's lithium hydroxide production in August fell 13% MoM and 31% YoY. The decline stemmed from two factors: smelting side, a major producer's mid-month production line maintenance led to a roughly 12% MoM output drop; causticisation side, though some enterprises achieved significant output increases due to robust mid-month orders, this failed to offset the gap caused by scheduled maintenance at other plants, resulting in an overall marked decrease.

For September, as previously idled lithium chemical plants gradually resume production and some enterprises flexibly adjust production schedules based on orders on hand, lithium hydroxide output is expected to grow 12% MoM, though remaining 21% lower YoY.

Cobalt sulphate

In August 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production decreased 1.56% MoM but increased 6.26% YoY.

By raw material source, cobalt intermediate products accounted for approximately 55%, MHP materials 18%, and recycled materials 27%. Due to the extension of the DRC export ban, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise, while smelters' inventory of cobalt intermediate raw materials gradually declined, with recycled materials and MHP partially substituting for cobalt intermediates. However, the payable indicators for MHP and recycled materials have recently seen significant increases, reducing companies' willingness to procure these materials for production, thereby weakening the substitution effect.

Supply side, cobalt sulphate production costs remained inverted in August. Some cobalt sulphate smelters chose to further reduce production or switch to more economically viable cobalt products like cobalt chloride and Co3O4 due to weak production economics or raw material shortages. After several months of adjustments, cobalt sulphate producers' production schedules have stabilized, with limited further downside room.

Demand side, downstream sectors gradually began stockpiling for the peak season in August. Orders from ternary and Co3O4 producers improved, prompting some companies with low raw material inventories to initiate market purchases.

By September, small and medium-sized cobalt sulphate producers are expected to have limited room for further production cuts, while integrated cobalt sulphate producers with ternary and Co3O4 capacity may see slight production increases due to improved downstream demand. Cobalt sulphate production schedules are projected to rise 2.67% MoM in September.

Co3O4

In August 2025, Co3O4 production increased 13% MoM and 38% YoY. The growth was primarily driven by higher production schedules from LCO cathode manufacturers, as battery cell manufacturers actively raised capacity utilization rates to meet peak-season demand in consumer electronics, boosting procurement demand for Co3O4. In September, with resilient end-use demand, Co3O4 output is expected to maintain growth, projected at around 5% MoM, though actual production may be influenced by cobalt salt price fluctuations and corporate inventory strategies.

Ternary cathode precursor

In August 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production showed notable growth, up 8.55% MoM and 11.30% YoY. From the product series structure perspective, the 6-series products remained the mainstream in the domestic market, accounting for 42.43%. Benefiting from the demand boost during the September-October peak season in the domestic NEV market, the share of 6-series materials has remained high in recent months. The 5-series materials accounted for 15.06%, showing relative stability. High-nickel products saw a slight increase this month, with the 8-series and 9-series accounting for 28.17% and 11.07%, respectively. Demand side, August was mainly driven by stockpiling for the traditional peak season, with most producers reporting order increases, though the growth remained concentrated in the NEV market. The consumer market showed overall stable demand but limited growth. Currently, with nickel and cobalt raw material prices at high levels and downstream cathode material manufacturers having limited tolerance for price hikes, precursor producers faced significant cost pressure, leading to cautious order-taking behavior, with actual order volumes potentially falling short of market demand. Looking ahead to September, demand is expected to remain at August levels. However, due to potential tight raw material supply and continued price increases, some producers may rely on inventory consumption to fulfill orders, leading to a projected narrowing in production schedule growth. On the other hand, demand in September is expected to receive some support from pre-holiday stockpiling for the National Day holiday. Overall, production in September is projected to increase by 3.89% MoM and 12.93% YoY.

Ternary cathode material

In August 2025, domestic ternary cathode material production increased by 6.99% MoM but still declined by 5.07% YoY. The overall industry operating rate continued to rebound, reaching 48%. In terms of product structure, 5-series materials accounted for 15.63%, remaining stable, while 6-series materials rose to 37.49%, further gaining market share under the demand boost from the September-October peak season in the domestic NEV market, squeezing some high-nickel products' market share. High-nickel products saw a slight decline, with 8-series materials accounting for 28.94% and 9-series materials for 15.67%. In the NEV market, to prepare for the traditional peak season, most producers reported order rebounds, though significant growth remained concentrated among suppliers to leading battery cell manufacturers. Consumer market, July already saw strong growth, so end-use demand did not increase significantly, with production performance basically flat. September is expected to maintain the current strong demand level. However, as producers ramped up production rapidly in August, some September demand was already stockpiled in advance. Coupled with high raw material costs for nickel, cobalt, and lithium, with prices expected to continue rising, and tight supply anticipated, some producers may comprehensively assess cost factors when taking downstream orders, resulting in actual orders potentially falling short of demand. Overall, September production is projected to decline slightly by 1.51% MoM and drop 1.78% YoY.

Iron phosphate

Domestic iron phosphate production in August showed significant growth, up 5% MoM and surging 59% YoY, indicating a clear expansion trend. The key drivers of this growth lie in demand boost and capacity release: On one hand, integrated LFP producers had ample orders, directly boosting internal iron phosphate production for self-use, becoming a major support for output growth. On the other hand, some iron phosphate producers actively scaled up output to match capacity expansion plans, further driving total industry production higher. Additionally, fluctuating lithium carbonate prices in August prompted downstream LFP producers to accelerate stockpiling, indirectly boosting iron phosphate demand. However, as integrated LFP producers continue to expand their market share, demand for iron phosphate in non-integrated segments is shrinking. Against this backdrop, industry iron phosphate capacity remains on an expansion path, while overall market demand growth is relatively limited. This subtle shift in the supply-demand relationship is forcing iron phosphate producers to adjust pricing strategies or enhance product competitiveness to secure downstream orders and maintain market share. Cost side, iron phosphate producers faced dual pressures in August: Industrial-grade MAP entered the traditional off-season, with prices declining significantly, providing some cost relief. However, rising ferrous sulphate prices significantly increased iron source procurement costs, squeezing profit margins. Looking ahead to September, with further release of downstream demand, the traditional peak season for the iron phosphate industry is approaching, market confidence is gradually recovering, and most iron phosphate companies hold optimistic expectations for the September market. From a production forecast perspective, domestic iron phosphate output is expected to maintain growth in September, with a MoM increase of around 4% and a YoY rise of up to 40%. The industry as a whole is poised to sustain favorable operating conditions.

LFP

In August, China's LFP material production rose approximately 8.8% MoM and 50% YoY, with an industry operating rate of around 62%. LFP manufacturers generally performed well during the month, maintaining high production enthusiasm, particularly among leading first-tier material producers, which operated at overcapacity due to robust orders from both the NEV and ESS sectors. Demand diverged among top-tier battery cell manufacturers, while second- and third-tier cell producers saw overall positive demand. Driven by the traditional auto sales peak season of "September-October peak season," cell manufacturers actively ramped up production and stockpiling, leading to increased orders for material suppliers. The ESS sector also demonstrated strong performance in August, with the latest survey indicating no reduction trends among ESS cell manufacturers, reflecting high industry vitality. Looking ahead to September, propelled by the "September-October peak season," the industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, with an anticipated growth rate exceeding 5%.

LCO

In August 2025, LCO production showed significant growth, up 19% MoM and 55% YoY. This was primarily driven by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics, with concentrated new model releases in Q3, coupled with summer sales promotions and back-to-school stockpiling demand, effectively stimulating downstream battery companies' purchase willingness for LCO cathodes. With sustained end-use consumption momentum, LCO output is projected to continue its upward trend in September, with an estimated MoM increase of 8%. Downstream order demand remains robust, and overall industry operating rates stay at high levels.

LMO

In August 2025, LMO production exhibited a "MoM decline but YoY growth" trend. During the month, the price of raw material lithium carbonate fluctuated frequently, and LMO producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Market quotations closely followed lithium carbonate price adjustments, with both shipments and production being relatively cautious. In the first ten days, due to a significant rise in LMO prices, battery cell manufacturers, concerned about future price hikes, engaged in advance stockpiling. However, as lithium carbonate prices rebounded and then slightly declined, battery cell manufacturers returned to a wait-and-see stance, leading to reduced orders. Coupled with the off-season in the downstream battery market and sluggish demand, LMO producers tightened their production schedules, resulting in a decline in market supply in August. Looking ahead to September, the LMO market is expected to gradually exit the off-season, with market activity likely to improve and inquiries steadily increasing. This will further boost producers' enthusiasm for production. Driven by these factors, LMO supply in September is projected to achieve MoM growth, with the YoY growth rate continuing to expand.

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey involves professional analysts conducting monthly tracking of Chinese metal producers through phone interviews and field surveys, subsequently issuing China metal production reports.

The survey ensures baseline sample coverage while continuously expanding it, with samples reasonably selected and distributed considering factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature to ensure representativeness across all sub-items.

Results are officially released monthly via SMM's website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn) at month-end.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.