SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in July 2025 and Forecast for August

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in July 2025 and Forecast for August

Copper Cathode

In July, SMM's China copper cathode production surged by 39,400 mt MoM, representing a 3.47% increase, and up 14.21% YoY. The cumulative production from January to July increased by 820,800 mt YoY, marking an 11.82% increase.

The significant increase in July's copper cathode production can be attributed to the following reasons: 1) The capacity utilization rate of newly commissioned smelters was rapidly rising, and production exceeded expectations; 2) Smelters that previously reduced production due to environmental protection inspections have resumed normal operations in July; 3) The sustained high prices of sulphuric acid in various regions in July effectively offset smelting losses. However, there are also unfavorable factors. Affected by the increasingly tight supply of blister copper and copper anode, some smelters have begun to experience small-scale production cuts, and we expect this situation to continue into August. There has been a slight increase in copper concentrate TCs recently, as of July 25, the imported copper concentrate index (weekly) had risen to -$42.63/mt, up $2.18/mt from June 27. However, the copper concentrate inventory at ports has fallen to a new low for the year, with our statistics showing that the current port inventory is only 560,900 mt, which will be unfavorable for smelters to continue expanding production in the future.

In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in July was 88.19%, up 2.43 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.12%, up 3.6 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 85.62%, up 0.75 percentage points MoM; and the operating rate of small smelters was 67.28%, down 2.09 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92.3%, up 3.2 percentage points MoM; while the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode instead) was 68.5%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM.

As we entered August, our statistics showed that only one smelter had a maintenance plan, and the decline in production due to maintenance was relatively small. However, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and blister copper and copper anode, the number of smelters that had to cut production due to raw material shortages in August increased compared to July. Nevertheless, influenced by the completion of maintenance and the continuous ramp-up of newly commissioned smelters in east China, we believe that the domestic copper cathode production in August only saw a slight decline.

Based on the production schedules of various smelters, SMM forecasts that domestic copper cathode production in August will decrease by 6,000 mt MoM, a decline of 0.51%, and increase by 154,800 mt YoY, a rise of 15.27%. The cumulative production from January to August will increase by 975,600 mt YoY, a rise of 12.26%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in August was 87.81%, down 0.38 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 90.71%, down 0.41 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 85.49%, down 0.13 percentage points MoM; and the operating rate of small smelters was 66.33%, down 0.94 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode) was 67.5%, down 1 percentage point MoM. We forecast that production in September will continue to decline, as the number of smelters with maintenance plans increases to five, involving a capacity of 900,000 mt.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. The operating aluminum capacity in China increased slightly MoM in July, mainly due to the start-up of the aluminum Phase II replacement project in Shandong-Yunnan. Due to the strong off-season atmosphere in the end-use market, alloy production in various regions decreased significantly. As a result, the proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters in July declined significantly, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum sliding 2.06 percentage points MoM to 73.77%. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, it is estimated that the domestic casting aluminum ingot volume in July decreased by 9.34% YoY and increased by 11.89% MoM to approximately 976,300 mt.

Capacity Changes: As of the end of July, SMM statistics showed that the existing aluminum capacity in China was approximately 45.69 million mt ((SMM adjusted the figure in late April by eliminating double calculations after taking into account capacity replacement and old plant dismantling). The operating aluminum capacity in China was around 43.9 million mt. Due to the commissioning of capacity replacement projects, the industry's operating rate increased slightly MoM. Additionally, a small batch of capacity that underwent technological transformation in Chongqing resumed production.

Production Forecast: Entering August 2025, the operating aluminum capacity in China remained at high levels. The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan commenced production and achieved output, leading to a rebound in the industry's operating rate. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, currently, only a few enterprises have indicated that they will continue to increase casting ingot production in August, mainly due to weak end-use demand, lower processing fees for alloyed products, and enterprises' pessimistic expectations for August demand, leading to expectations of further production cuts. This has forced aluminum plants to increase casting ingot production. It is expected that the proportion of liquid aluminum will remain at low levels, with limited downside room. Subsequent attention should still be paid to changes in end-use demand and the trend of the proportion of liquid aluminum.

Alumina

According to SMM data, in July 2025 (31 days), China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 5.40% MoM and 6.65% YoY. As of the end of July, the existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity in China was approximately 110.32 million mt, with the actual operating capacity increasing by 2.00% MoM and an operating rate of 81.6%.

Bolstered by policy news such as "anti-rat race competition" and "capacity reduction" in the macro context, alumina futures strengthened. The most-traded contract reached a peak of 3,577 yuan/mt within the month, opening the arbitrage window between futures and spot. Spot traders actively inquired and purchased, leading to a tightening of spot supply. Holders refused to budge on prices, and spot alumina prices followed suit. Alumina refinery profitability improved again during the month. Except for a few routine maintenance activities, no news of production cuts or maintenance was heard. Operating capacity increased by 1.77 million mt MoM.

By Region:

In July, alumina capacity in south China saw both increases and decreases. A few alumina refineries conducted routine maintenance, but the impact on alumina production was relatively small. Additionally, some alumina refineries began reducing their operating capacity from June and did not recover in July, leading to a slight decrease in production. Apart from this, due to firm alumina prices and moderate profitability, the operating capacity of a few alumina refineries increased. Overall, the operating capacity in south China decreased by 20,000 mt MoM.

In July, driven by profitability, the operating capacity of alumina in north China increased significantly, up 1.78 million mt MoM.

Forecast for Next Month: As we enter August, spot alumina prices are currently fluctuating at highs, and alumina refineries are enjoying moderate profitability. There is no strong intention for production cuts or maintenance, with only a few companies expected to carry out routine maintenance, which will have a limited impact on production. In August, the operating capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide is expected to increase slightly, reaching around 90.56 million mt/year.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminum production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% YoY. The monthly average operating rate was 88.5%, down 0.8% MoM, but still up slightly by 0.2% YoY.

During the month, Alcoa and its energy partner Ignis announced that after the massive power outage in April, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain has begun restarting in batches, with the goal of restoring its nominal capacity of 228,000 mt by mid-2026. Due to the delay in production resumption, Alcoa expects a profit loss of $9-110 million for this smelter in 2025.

SMM also learned that after three years of production resumptions in batches, the capacity utilization rate of the Alumar smelter in Brazil has risen to 92% (approximately 411,000 mt/year), and it is currently striving to reach full capacity. In Africa, South32 stated that it has not yet reached an agreement with energy supplier HCB on the power agreement beyond 2026, and there is a risk of partial shutdown for the Mozal smelter with a capacity of 580,000 mt/year. Negotiations are still ongoing; if no viable alternative solution can be found, South32 does not rule out the possibility of reducing its stake in Mozal.

Power issues are also troubling Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter in Australia. The smelter is currently negotiating with the Australian federal and New South Wales governments on power contracts for 2026–2029 and federal production tax credits, but no agreement has been reached yet. Tomago, located about 125 kilometers north of Sydney, consumes about 10% of New South Wales' power and produces 590,000 mt of aluminum annually. In addition to Rio Tinto, its shareholders also include CSR and Hydro Aluminum.

In Asia, after the completion of shakedown test for the aluminum expansion production line at BALCO in India, it is expected to have started ramping up production in July.

Overall, the overseas aluminum supply remained stable in July, but the medium and long-term outlook for some smelters remains uncertain. Looking ahead to August, with BALCO continuing to ramp up production, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by approximately 3% YoY, and the operating rate is expected to rebound to 88.8%.

Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 7.1% YoY in July 2025. The average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.4%, up 0.5% MoM and 3.5% YoY. The increase in production in the month mainly came from Indonesia: PT Bintan Indonesia Alumina commenced feeding at its Phase III project (1 million mt/year) in June and produced its first batch of alumina in July. It is expected to reach full capacity by the end of the year and then will immediately commence construction of Phase IV. Meanwhile, Vedanta Lanjigarh's alumina refinery in India has fully commissioned its 1.5 million mt/year expansion capacity, with production reaching 587,000 mt in Q2 2025, up 9% QoQ. MIND ID also increased the operating load of the SGAR alumina project from 80% to 90%.

In addition, Rio Tinto's Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia has been undergoing maintenance since Q2, resulting in a 14.6% MoM decline in production. This impact is expected to continue until the end of Q3.

Looking ahead to August, driven by the continued ramp-up of Nanshan's Phase III and Lanjigarh, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 7.2% YoY. Due to capacity expansion, the average operating rate is expected to drop back slightly to 81.1%.

Primary lead

In July 2025, nationwide primary lead production decreased, dropping by 1.49 percentage points MoM and increasing by 5.43 percentage points YoY. The cumulative primary lead production from January to July 2025 increased by 9.05 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that unexpected maintenance occurred at primary lead smelters in Central China in July, and these enterprises had relatively large production capacities, dragging down primary lead production in the month below expectations and resulting in a MoM decline. On the one hand, the supply of lead concentrates was tight, and treatment charges (TCs) have been declining for two consecutive months. The latest SMM monthly TC for imported ore pb60 ranged from -$70/dmt to -$50/dmt, marking a decline for two consecutive months. Deals of -$150/dmt to -$100/dmt have even emerged in the market. On the other hand, in mid-to-late July, the center of lead price movements shifted downward, reducing the production enthusiasm of primary lead smelters. Some enterprises chose to actively reduce output or delay the recovery progress after maintenance amid tight raw material supply. Consequently, the monthly production recorded a negative growth on a MoM basis.

Looking ahead to August, primary lead smelters are expected to gradually resume production after completing maintenance, including medium-to-large enterprises in central, southwest, east, and north China. Meanwhile, the new capacity of large enterprises in central China is about to come online, potentially bringing additional production. Even if primary lead smelters in north and northeast China enter routine maintenance, the upward trend in primary lead production in August remains unchanged. Additionally, during the process of production resumption or new capacity commissioning by primary lead enterprises, the raw material supply gap may widen again. Coupled with the weakening of lead prices at the end of July, which dampened the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, SMM conservatively estimates that primary lead production in August will increase by approximately 4.5 percentage points MoM.

Secondary Lead

In July 2025, secondary lead production increased as scheduled, rising by 10.93% MoM and 3.13% YoY. Secondary refined lead production rose by 13.96% MoM and 1.28% YoY.

In July, lead prices first rose and then fell. Early in the month, the most-traded SHFE lead 2509 contract reached a high of 17,340 yuan/mt, while scrap battery prices saw limited increases, improving the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters. Large secondary lead smelter A in north China, which had idle capacity due to multiple factors earlier, resumed production in early July. Large secondary lead smelter B in north China completed maintenance and resumed production in late July. Small-to-medium secondary lead smelter C in north China resumed production in late June and maintained stable production in July. A large-to-medium-sized secondary lead smelter (A) in east China resumed production after maintenance in late July. The above-mentioned enterprises made significant contributions to the production of secondary lead in July.

By the end of July, the most-traded SHFE lead contract fell below the 16,800 yuan/mt mark, dampening the production enthusiasm of some smelters and even weakening expectations for an improvement in lead consumption in August. A large secondary lead smelter in north-west China plans to halt production recently due to multiple factors such as market downturn, raw material shortages, and water usage restrictions, which is the main reduction in August. Additionally, enterprises that resumed production in July in east and north China are expected to maintain stable production in August. A smelter in southwest China, which delayed the commissioning of its new capacity in June due to equipment issue, resumed normal production at the end of July. Its contribution to lead production is mainly reflected in August. Overall, secondary lead production in August may still maintain an upward trend.

Refined Zinc

According to SMM, China's refined zinc production in July 2025 increased by 3% MoM and approximately 23% YoY, with YTD production through July up over 4% YoY, exceeding expectations. Among them, domestic zinc alloy production in July increased MoM. Entering July, domestic smelter production increased. Routine maintenance was reported in Shaanxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and other regions, while smelters in Yunnan, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Guangxi, and Qinghai completed maintenance. Additionally, maintenance delays at some smelters in Inner Mongolia, coupled with the continued release of new capacity in Henan and Yunnan, led to a significant increase in overall production.

SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 to increase by nearly 3% MoM and over 27% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of over 7% expected from January to August. In August, except for maintenance at some smelters in Hunan, production at other smelters will be stable or continue to increase. Smelters in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Qinghai will complete maintenance, while new capacity will continue to be released in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Henan, with overall production potentially reaching a new high.

Refined Tin

According to SMM's processed data based on market survey, in July 2025, China's refined tin production rebounded by 15.42% MoM compared to the previous month, while only increasing by 0.09% YoY. The rebound in production was mainly influenced by multiple factors, including the resumption of production by some enterprises and the clearing of intermediate products. A regional breakdown is as follows:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of tin concentrates in physical content reached 11,911 mt in June 2025, showing a slight MoM decline. This reduction was due to a decrease in imports from African and Oceanian countries: imports from Nigeria, Bolivia, Australia, and other countries saw a significant drop compared to May, but the overall import volume remained relatively stable. The long-term gap caused by the mining ban in Myanmar has not yet been fully filled. Although the mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have recently been approved, the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar will still take a considerable amount of time due to the impact of the rainy season and the preparation work for resuming production.

Yunnan region: Raw material shortages remain severe:

Smelters’ inventories of raw materials are generally below 30 days, competition for tin ore procurement has intensified, processing costs for low-grade ores have surged, and with the rise in electricity costs, enterprises' willingness to produce has declined. Some enterprises are preparing to halt production for maintenance and clear intermediate products from various smelting processes, resulting in a slight MoM increase in production.

Jiangxi region: Disruption in the scrap supply chain:

The scrap tin recycling system is under pressure, with the circulation of secondary materials in the market decreasing by over 30%. The undersupply of crude tin directly leads to difficulties in increasing refined production. Some secondary tin enterprises have completed maintenance and are gradually resuming production, with overall production in the region rebounding this month.

Other regions: Dual raw material shortages:

The supply of both tin concentrates and scrap tin is weak, with operating rates remaining below 70% of planned capacity for an extended period. Some enterprises plan to halt production for maintenance, further suppressing production. Based on SMM's estimates, refined tin production is expected to decline by 2.51% MoM in August. Driving factors: Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi are expected to halt production for maintenance.

Refined nickel

In July 2025, SMM's refined nickel production increased by 3% MoM from June, up 14% YoY, with YTD production through July up 27% YoY. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. In July, top-tier enterprises maintained a stable production pace, with a few smelters increasing their output, driving a slight increase in overall refined nickel production. In terms of prices, the average spot price of refined nickel in July was 122,237 yuan/mt, up 680 yuan/mt MoM from June, mainly driven by the domestic macro sentiment against "rat race" competition, with spot prices following suit with a slight increase. The average premiums for Jinchuan nickel in July were 2,100 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt MoM from June. The premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel in China remained stable within the -100 yuan to 300 yuan/mt range. Spot trading remained sluggish throughout July, with overall trading volume decreasing by 10%-20% MoM compared to June, mainly due to entering the off-season for consumption, with downstream purchases only meeting immediate needs. Additionally, in July, driven by macro sentiment, nickel prices fluctuated sharply, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

It is expected that refined nickel production will increase by 1% MoM in August, with production plans of various smelters remaining stable and new capacity additions still pending.

NPI

In July 2025, NPI production nationwide increased by 2.11% MoM in physical content, but decreased by 8.10% MoM in metal content. In July, nickel ore prices in the Philippines fell to a certain extent, while with the macro sentiment driving the recovery of stainless steel finished product prices, NPI prices rose. Domestic NPI smelters still faced losses, albeit at a smaller rate. To cope with losses, most high-grade NPI smelters continued to operate at low capacity, with the metal content of domestic high-grade NPI production decreasing by 7.87% MoM. On the other hand, in July, downstream stainless steel production increased, driven by the recovery of 200-series stainless steel production, the physical content and metal content of domestic low-grade NPI production both increased MoM. The average grade of NPI also decreased by 0.4% MoM in July.

Looking ahead, it is expected that with the approaching September-October peak season and driven by increased production from downstream stainless steel enterprises, the physical content and metal content of domestic NPI production will both stabilize and slightly rebound. SMM forecasts that the physical content of NPI production nationwide will increase by 1.73% MoM and the metal content will increase by 1.09% MoM in August 2025. Additionally, under the combined effects of smelters maintaining low operating rates and a certain recovery in consumption, SMM expects the price center of high-grade NPI to continue rising in August.

Indonesian NPI

In July 2025, the physical content of Indonesian NPI production fell by approximately 0.07% MoM, and the metal content fell by approximately 1.7% MoM. Entering July, the losses at Indonesian smelters had not significantly eased, with previously halted production lines yet to resume. Some Indonesian smelters continued to operate at low loads. Under downward pressure on profits and grades, both the physical content and metal content of Indonesian NPI fell in July.

It is expected that in August 2025, the physical content of Indonesian NPI will rise by 0.60% MoM, and the metal content will rise by 16.35% MoM. As the peak consumption season approaches and smelter losses gradually improve, SMM expects the operating rate of Indonesian smelters to recover to a certain extent.

Nickel sulphate

According to SMM data, domestic nickel sulphate production was 29,100 mt in metal content (equivalent to 132,200 mt in physical content) in July, up 17.30% MoM and 4.77% YoY. On the demand side, benefiting from the recovery in orders from precursor enterprises and the release of stockpiling demand, nickel salt consumption has steadily increased. On the supply side, due to the release of new capacity by some manufacturers and the increased stockpiling of nickel sulphate inventory by integrated enterprises, market supply has shown a significant increase.

Looking ahead to August, affected by tight raw material supply, some nickel salt producers plan to continue production cuts or halt production for maintenance, expecting nickel sulphate supply to contract. SMM forecasts that in August, nationwide nickel sulphate production will pull back to 28,300 mt in metal content (128,900 mt in physical content), down 2.53% MoM and 10.89% YoY.

Battery-grade manganese sulphate

In July 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate increased significantly MoM and also achieved a certain increase YoY. On the supply side, manganese salt factories maintained an active production schedule in the month. Affected by destocking in June, some orders were transferred to July for execution, directly leading to a significant increase in monthly supply, with a prominent MoM increase. At the same time, manganese sulphate producers steadily advanced the delivery of long-term contracts. Demand side, there are structural characteristics: driven by favorable factors, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market has seen an increase in restocking. Coupled with the approaching peak season of September-October, enterprises' stockpiling demand has been released, leading to a rise in the delivery of long-term contracts for high-purity manganese sulphate and boosting market vitality. However, spot orders remain low, and there is no sign of stockpiling.

​It is expected that in August 2025, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market will continue to maintain a stable growth trend, which is expected to drive the production of manganese salt plants to achieve MoM growth again and maintain a certain growth rate YoY.

EMD

In July 2025, the production of EMD showed a positive trend, with a slight MoM increase and a considerable YoY increase.​ Specifically, the performance of different types of products varied: the production of MnO2 used for carbon-zinc battery and alkaline manganese battery both showed an upward trend. This is mainly attributed to the stable downstream primary battery market, with new orders emerging continuously. At the same time, influenced by macro policies, the market quotes for MnO2 have risen slightly. These two factors have jointly driven enterprises to increase their production schedules, promoting an increase in the production of these two types of products.​ However, the performance of MnO2 used for LMO battery is relatively weaker. Due to the fierce competition in downstream LMO market, most enterprises have switched to using more cost-effective Mn3O4 to control costs, leading to a decline in demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery and making it difficult to achieve an increase in production schedules.​

Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations have been adjusted. Given that the primary battery market is likely to remain in the traditional off-season, MnO2 producers will mostly focus on destocking as their main goal, making it difficult for production to continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the total production of EMD in August will show a slight downward trend.

Mn3O4

In July 2025, the production of Mn3O4 showed a steady growth trend, with a slight MoM increase and maintaining a certain growth rate YoY.​ In terms of product grades, market performance shows differentiated characteristics: the increase in battery-grade Mn3O4 is relatively significant. This is mainly attributed to two key factors. Firstly, the LMO market was highly active in July, leading to an increased demand for battery-grade Mn3O4. This significantly boosted the production enthusiasm of relevant enterprises, driving up planned production. Secondly, the LMFP market is currently in the development stage, and Mn3O4 is still chosen as the manganese source in its production process, which also brings certain positive impacts to the battery-grade Mn3O4 market. In contrast, electronic-grade Mn3O4 maintained a stable operation, with relatively small fluctuations in overall supply, primarily focusing on maintaining stable production and fulfilling existing orders.

Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations are positive. With the LMO market expected to experience a slight recovery again, it will further drive up the demand for battery-grade Mn3O4 and lead to an increase in its planned production. Overall, it is anticipated that the total production of Mn3O4 in August will continue to show an upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production saw a significant increase in July 2025, with a MoM growth rate of 7.52% and a YoY increase of 1.92%. Among them, the production in Inner Mongolia increased by 5.37% MoM; while in southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, the production increased by 18.53% MoM. The environmental protection checks in northern Inner Mongolia officially concluded, and many producers that had previously limited production have now resumed normal operations. In southern regions like Sichuan, producers took advantage of the electricity price advantages during the rainy season to increase their ferrochrome production. Additionally, steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome in July exceeded expectations and remained flat, having fluctuated at highs for three consecutive months. This has to a certain extent guaranteed the profit margins of ferrochrome producers, boosting their production enthusiasm. As a result, there has been a significant increase in ferrochrome production, reaching a peak in 2025. Meanwhile, overseas ferrochrome plants are still shut down on a large scale, reducing the total import volume of ferrochrome. The supply of ferrochrome remained tight in the first half of 2025. Coupled with the slight recovery in the downstream stainless steel market, the implementation of production cut plans fell short of expectations, leading to a relatively increased demand for ferrochrome. Ferrochrome producers actively increased production to bridge the supply-demand gap.

Looking ahead to August 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to continue rising slightly. On July 23 and 25, TISCO and Tsingshan successively announced the tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement in August at 7,645 yuan/mt (50% metal content) and 7,995 yuan/mt (50% metal content), respectively, representing a MoM decrease of 200 yuan and 100 yuan. The decline in tender prices was better than expected, boosting market confidence in the ferrochrome sector and maintaining production enthusiasm at a relatively high level. Additionally, stimulated by macro tailwinds such as the national anti-"rat race" competition policies and major infrastructure projects, the downstream stainless steel market strengthened, with futures and spot prices rising, market activity gradually recovering, and expectations for production cuts weakening, potentially increasing demand for ferrochrome. Meanwhile, there has been no news of overseas ferrochrome plants resuming production, and the import supply gap needs to be filled by domestic producers, which is expected to further drive up ferrochrome production.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM survey data, nationwide stainless steel production in July 2025 decreased by 1.21% MoM and increased slightly by 0.21% YoY. By series, 200-series production decreased by 1.97% MoM; 300-series production decreased by 0.03% MoM; 400-series production decreased by 3.45% MoM.

In July, although overall stainless steel production continued to decline, the decrease did not reach previous expectations. Despite the continuous pullback in stainless steel production recently, it remained at a relatively high level. Affected by the off-season, market demand failed to match the previous supply, leading to sluggish transactions and decline in prices. Stainless steel inventories across steel mills, traders and social warehouses were all at high levels. Severe losses significantly dented steel mills' willingness to produce. News of production cuts spread frequently at the beginning of the month. However, with the continuous production cuts by stainless steel mills and the continuous stimulation of macro tailwinds, the SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, with spot prices rising accordingly, and losses of steel mills improving. Additionally, stainless steel mills adopted a strategy of stable pricing and active shipping in the spot market in July, leading to a significant recovery in stainless steel transactions, alleviating inventory pressure. As a result, production cuts by steel mills weakened.

In terms of the performance of each series, 300-series stainless steel production remained largely stable in July, while 200-series and 400-series stainless steel production both declined further. Driven by the strength in the SS futures market, the prices of 300-series stainless steel have followed suit, increasing the arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices for traders and boosting market activity. Despite the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI prices, stainless steel mill losses have eased somewhat. Due to increased production by steel mills in the earlier period, the supply of 400-series stainless steel saw big supply surplus, leading to consecutive price drops during the month. Coupled with tight supply of high-carbon ferrochrome, which makes it difficult to reduce costs, stainless steel mills have reduced their planned production. The prices of 200-series stainless steel had been declining continuously in the earlier period, resulting in significant losses for stainless steel mills. Production schedules for 200-series stainless steel have pulled back during the month. However, with the recent price increase of 200-series stainless steel, the losses have eased, and it is expected that the production of 200-series stainless steel will increase in August.

Looking ahead to August, it is anticipated that stainless steel production will stop falling and rebound. Driven by the recent favorable macroeconomic policies, stainless steel prices have risen from their earlier lows, and losses for stainless steel mills have improved. As prices strengthen, market confidence is gradually recovering, and transactions are showing signs of recovery. After active shipments in July, the inventory pressure on stainless steel mills has significantly eased, boosting production enthusiasm. Additionally, as the traditional consumption off-season is about to end, the market is optimistic about the demand recovery during the "September-October peak season". Coupled with the implementation of the recent "anti-rat race" competition policy and increased infrastructure investment by the government, stainless steel is expected to achieve a steady rebound in August, driven by both favorable policies and demand expectations.

EMM

In July 2025, EMM production exhibited a dual decline, with a decrease both MoM and YoY. Both supply and demand fell. Downstream steel mills were in the traditional off-season, with sustained weak demand, and there were widespread production cuts in July. This directly affected upstream EMM plants, which became more cautious in their production attitudes and actively narrowed their production schedules, primarily to ensure the delivery of existing long-term contracts. Meanwhile, the short production cycle of EMM makes enterprises generally reluctant to stockpile. Coupled with the fact that some manganese plants that halted production for maintenance have not yet resumed operations, this has further exacerbated the tight market supply, ultimately resulting in a weak supply and demand situation.

Looking ahead to August 2025, the market is expected to undergo a mild adjustment: downstream demand for stainless steel is anticipated to recover slightly, and with the recent strong sentiment of refusing to budge on prices in the market, there is an expectation for further price increases. Driven by the potential expansion of profit margins, enterprises' production enthusiasm may be boosted. Overall, it is projected that the total production of EMM in August will experience a MoM increase, albeit with a relatively limited growth rate.​

SiMn alloy

In July 2025, China's total production of SiMn alloy increased significantly, with a slight MoM increase and a YoY decline. From the perspective of regional production changes, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions experienced relatively significant growth rates, while Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, and other regions maintained relatively stable production saw slight MoM increase.

The main reasons for the MoM increase in July production are as follows: Firstly, Inner Mongolia, leveraging its stable cost advantages, maintained a high operating rate, leading to an increase in production. In Ningxia, due to a reduction in electricity costs in July, production costs were effectively controlled, resulting in an increase in production. Southern regions like Yunnan benefited from preferential electricity policies during the rainy season, leading to a decrease in production costs and stable growth in SiMn production. Secondly, the overall performance of the SiMn futures market in July was moderate, with the latter half of the month showing a trend of fluctuating at highs. Both futures and spot prices showed upward movements, gradually repairing the profits of SiMn alloy factories. The market sentiment warmed up, thereby increasing the production enthusiasm of factories. Additionally, HBIS Group set the price of SiMn at 5,850 yuan/mt in July, which was higher than expected, driving the market sentiment of SiMn and prompting an increase in SiMn production.

Looking ahead to August 2025, the production of SiMn alloy is expected to continue to increase slightly. On the one hand, cost advantages still exist, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia maintaining their cost advantages, and regions like Yunnan still in the preferential electricity period during the rainy season. Most SiMn alloy factories have indicated no intention to cut production. On the other hand, the driving effect of market confidence is significant. Influenced by the positive performance of the SiMn futures market in July, factories in both the north and south have plans to slightly increase production. Additionally, stimulated by macro tailwinds such as the national anti-"rat race" competition policies, the downstream stainless steel market has strengthened, with market activity gradually recovering. Expectations for production cuts have weakened, and the market demand for SiMn alloy may increase.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM communications with market players, silicon metal production in July 2025 increased by 3.2% YoY but decreased by 30.6%. The cumulative silicon metal production from January to July 2025 decreased by 20.0% YoY.

In July, silicon metal production in the south and north diverged. In the north, affected by large-scale production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, there was a significant impact on monthly production, with Xinjiang's July production decreasing by nearly 27,000 mt MoM. A small amount of capacity maintenance in Gansu also led to a decrease in monthly production. In the south, Yunnan and Sichuan continued to drive production increases during the rainy season, with the combined production in Sichuan and Yunnan up around 36,000 mt MoM.

Currently, silicon metal producers that are in operation are concentrated in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu, while those in Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Fujian are basically shut down. In August, it is expected that silicon metal production in Sichuan and Yunnan will continue to increase, with production schedules expected to rise further. The resumption of production at large plants in Xinjiang is progressing slowly, and the supply increase may fall short of expectations. Based on the production schedule, silicon metal production is expected to increase to around 360,000-370,000 mt.

Polysilicon

In July, domestic polysilicon production rose 5.2% MoM from June. The increase was mainly due to the resumption and ramp-up of production capacity in Yunnan. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase significantly to around 130,000 mt. Yunnan will further ramp up production, while Sichuan and Qinghai will bring increments due to release of new capacity and production resumption. During the rainy season, some polysilicon bases have commenced operations one after another, and the recovery of polysilicon prices has further stimulated enterprises' production passion.

PV Module

In July, various module enterprises slightly increased their production, with production increasing by approximately 1.6% MoM. Recently, module prices jumped initially and then pulled back, which had a certain impact on enterprises' production enthusiasm. Distributed demand has marginally improved, but the total volume is still at a low level. State-owned enterprises still take wait-and-see stance and try to push for lower prices when buying centralized modules. By size and technology type, the production schedule and shipments of large-sized modules, led by HJT, have been relatively good. Overall, it is expected that August's production will fall slightly MoM.

Solar Cell

In July, the battery market remained stable with an upward trend. The global production of solar cells in our survey sample was 58.19GW, up 3% MoM from June. This was mainly due to the impact of international trade policies, which led overseas customers to step up stockpiling, driving a significant increase in demand and providing strong support for orders in the second half of July. By size, the proportion of large-sized solar cells in the production schedule continued to rise to meet requirements for higher single-watt power generation efficiency/cost.

PV Film

In July, the total production schedule of the PV film industry fell by 2.57% MoM. The main reason was that the production schedule of modules on the demand side fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in demand, which in turn caused the overall operating rate of PV film producers to drop and PV film production to decline. In August, the production schedule of modules continued to show a downward trend, with demand remaining weak. It is expected that PV film production will continue to fall in August.

PV-grade EVA

In July, the production schedule of PV-grade EVA rose by 5.59% MoM. This was mainly due to the completion of maintenance at some petrochemical enterprises and the conversion of production to PV-grade EVA at some petrochemical plants. According to SMM, demand is expected to continue to decline in August, and the overall operating rate of downstream PV film enterprises is low. However, due to the end of the maintenance cycle at some petrochemical enterprises and expectations for production scheduling of PV-grade EVA, it is expected that the production of PV-grade EVA will show an upward trend in August.

PV Glass

In July, domestic PV glass production began to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.69% MoM from June. In July, the number of production days for domestic PV glass increased by 1 day, and capacity in operation increased after the technological transformation of some kilns. However, the number of kilns undergoing cold maintenance increased in July, resulting in an overall decline in production. In terms of August's supply, due to the impact of an increase in kilns undergoing production cuts in PV glass in the early stage, glass enterprises still expect production cuts in August, with an estimated nearly 1.81% drop in operating rates MoM from July.

DMC

In July, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 4.5% MoM and 1.2% YoY from June. In July, affected by sudden accidents and maintenance at dimethyldichlorosilane plants in Shandong, as well as production cuts at dimethyldichlorosilane plants in south-west China, the overall operating capacity decreased, leading to a decline in silicone production. Regarding subsequent production, although some dimethyldichlorosilane enterprises in China will still have a relatively low operating load in August, the overall impact will be limited. It is estimated that silicone DMC production in August will increase by 5.5% MoM from July.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM survey data, China's primary magnesium production in July 2025 decreased by 4.50% MoM and increased by 1.82% YoY, with the operating rate dropping to 61.86%.

After two consecutive months of increase, primary magnesium production in July showed a slight decline, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. The high temperature in production workshops made it difficult for employees to work, leading to an increase in leave frequency and an extension of the smelting cycle, resulting in a slight decrease in production at nearly 70% of primary magnesium smelters nationwide. 2. Primary magnesium smelters in the main production areas conducted normal maintenance of shutdown equipment. According to SMM statistics, a total of four smelters underwent shutdown maintenance in July. 3. Concentrated rainfall in the main production areas in late July led to a short-term decrease in daily production at some magnesium plants in the main production areas. However, it is worth noting that three primary magnesium smelters resumed production and produced magnesium ingots in July, which had an impact on the increase in primary magnesium production. Overall, the decrease in primary magnesium production was greater than the increase, resulting in a downward trend in China's primary magnesium production nationwide.

According to SMM survey, currently, five primary magnesium smelters in the main production areas have feedback that they plan to conduct maintenance and shutdown in August. In addition, three primary magnesium smelters that underwent maintenance in July are expected to resume production in August, and the specific resumption times for other previously shutdown primary magnesium smelters are undetermined. SMM will continue to track this situation. Overall, it is estimated that the production of primary magnesium smelters in China will decrease slightly in August.

Magnesium Alloy

According to SMM survey data, China's magnesium alloy production in July 2025 decreased by 2.69% MoM and increased by 2.83% YoY, with the magnesium alloy operating rate dropping to 57.44%.

In July, magnesium alloy production maintained a downward trend. The current decline in magnesium alloy production is mainly due to the spontaneous reduction in operating rates by magnesium alloy producers triggered by weak demand. The main reasons for the decline in magnesium alloy production are as follows: Firstly, with the change in seasonal factors, the market has shown characteristics of the off-season, and procurement volumes have recently pulled back. Secondly, the magnesium alloy market has recently entered a fatigue period after a concentrated rush to export, with overseas orders for magnesium alloy declining. Affected by this, some magnesium alloy producers have reduced their operating rates.

Looking ahead to August, as mainstream producers continue to intensify their market promotion efforts, the cost-effectiveness advantage of magnesium alloy materials is gradually gaining widespread recognition within the industry. This trend has prompted some die-casting enterprises to start adjusting their production processes and gradually replacing aluminum alloy with magnesium alloy. Although this material substitution has not yet generated large-scale orders, it has driven an overall mild increase in market demand for magnesium alloy, which will bring about a certain degree of production growth expectations. Considering the current changes in the supply-demand pattern of the market, the industry generally expects that magnesium alloy production will remain stable in August.

Magnesium powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production fluctuated rangebound in July 2025, with a 1.02% increase MoM.

The phenomenon of market differentiation is evident in the industry, with the overall market facing dual pressures from both domestic and external demand. The domestic consumer market continues to be sluggish, and the shrinking procurement demand from international steel enterprises has also led to a continuous decline in export orders for several months. However, some small and medium-sized producers have actively reduced their capacity utilization rates, while leading producers have increased their operating levels by leveraging their concentrated order advantages.

The State Taxation Administration's Announcement No. 17 of 2025 (issued on July 7, 2025) has made significant revisions to the "Monthly (Quarterly) Prepayment Tax Declaration Form for Corporate Income Tax (Category A)", with the seventh provision regarding agency export declarations being seen by the industry as a key measure to end the "export under others' names" model. This provision will officially come into effect on October 1, 2025, marking the beginning of a strong regulatory era for the long-standing chaos of "export under others' names" in the foreign trade sector. Affected by this, there may be a rush to export magnesium powder in the August and September. Looking ahead to August, the magnesium powder industry is likely to see a slight increase in production.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in July 2025 decreased by 1.06% MoM.

In the month, titanium dioxide producers continued to maintain production cuts to cope with the continuous shrinkage of market demand. By actively regulating capacity, they effectively alleviated inventory pressure, and some producers that had previously suspended production planned to gradually resume production next month. Currently, production mainly ensures the fulfillment of long-term contracts for core long-established customers. Producers generally control their inventory at a reasonable level of about one month, basically achieving a dynamic balance between production and sales. It is worth noting that some large enterprises have initiated routine maintenance plans this month, further contracting market supply. On the demand side, the overall performance of the coating industry continues to fall short of expectations. Coupled with the impact of the traditional summer off-season factor, terminal purchase willingness is generally sluggish. The market generally expects that the timing of market recovery may be postponed until September.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in July 2025 increased by 2.61% MoM.

In the month, the sponge titanium market showed a steady production trend, but due to the continuous rise in prices, the industry's capacity still showed an expansion trend this year. Currently, it is the traditional summer off-season for demand, with downstream procurement slowing down. The market supply-demand pattern is gradually shifting towards oversupply. According to the latest SMM survey, in response to the industry's anti-"rat race" competition policy guidance, some mainstream producers have planned to implement a 30% production cut in Q3. It is expected that market supply will significantly contract in August. Currently, the overall inventory level of the industry continues to rise. This proactive production cut is expected to accelerate the inventory digestion process and create favorable conditions for subsequent price stabilization and recovery.

Light Rare Earths

In July, the production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy increased slightly MoM. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide mainly came from the further increase in the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises, with the increase mainly concentrated in Shandong and Jiangxi provinces. The main increase in Pr-Nd alloy came from the implementation of production increase plans by some metal enterprises. According to SMM, influenced by the positive order situation for Pr-Nd alloy, the operating rate of metal plants has increased. With the growth in downstream orders, the operating rate of leading metal plants has improved, though some small and medium-sized plants have slightly reduced their production due to poor order conditions. Meanwhile, in Sichuan, due to the impact of high temperatures, some metal enterprises have correspondingly halted furnaces and cut production. Overall, the total production of Pr-Nd alloy in July increased by 1.64% MoM, and the production of Pr-Nd oxide increased by 5% MoM. Looking ahead to August, with the growth in order volumes received by downstream magnetic material plants, it is expected that the supply of rare earth raw materials will be tight, providing some support for the price trend of Pr-Nd.

Medium-heavy rare earth

The growth in the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides in July was mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, stimulated by the continuous improvement in rare earth oxide prices, scrap recycling enterprises significantly increased their operating rates, boosting market supply. The prices of medium-heavy rare earth products such as dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide increased significantly in July, improving the profit expectations of scrap recycling enterprises and driving them to increase scrap procurement and processing, thereby directly boosting the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. On the other hand, although the monthly sales of ion-adsorption rare earth ore were poor, raw ore separation enterprises, still holding a certain amount of inventory, did not significantly reduce their operating rates. Under the combined effects of the above situations, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides continued to increase MoM.

NdFeB

In July 2025, the production of NdFeB magnetic materials in China increased by 7.15% MoM. Restricted by the rapid rise in the prices of Pr-Nd oxide and metal in the month, the price of NdFeB showed a short-term upward trend in July, stimulating the stockpiling trend of downstream enterprises in the short term. From market feedback, although there was a general increase in inquiry volumes from downstream clients, actual trading volumes did not correspondingly increase, showing a certain degree of "more inquiries, fewer purchases" phenomenon.

There are three reasons for this. Firstly, wait-and-see sentiment dominates: As the month-end approaches, although some end-user clients have begun to plan for stockpiling in the next period, faced with the continuously rising prices of Pr-Nd raw materials and the slightly following price increases of magnetic materials, they generally hold a strong wait-and-see attitude, with relatively conservative purchasing behavior and no significant release of urgent demand. This directly led to no significant surge in the overall delivery volume of magnetic materials in July.

Secondly, it was due to the differentiation in order structure: newly added overseas orders exhibited a pronounced concentration effect at the top, primarily flowing to large magnetic material enterprises, which limited the new overseas orders that medium- and small-sized magnetic material enterprises could secure.

Thirdly, price fluctuations suppressed procurement: Given the significant increase in the recent price fluctuations of Pr-Nd raw materials, some domestic end-users (especially medium- and small-sized enterprises) have suspended or significantly slowed down their procurement pace of magnetic materials based on risk control considerations, instead prioritizing the digestion of existing inventory. This strategy has led to low enthusiasm for inquiries, ultimately resulting in a slight MoM increase in magnetic material production in July. However, in the long run, sustained support from end-use demand, the approaching end of the traditional off-season, coupled with factors such as new energy enterprises striving for volume growth in H2, the recovery in demand for consumer goods like air conditioners and mobile phones during the summer vacation, have jointly boosted the domestic magnetic material market demand, ultimately driving up overall transaction activity.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. The total domestic molybdenum concentrate production from January to July increased by 4.8% YoY.

In July, molybdenum concentrate enterprises in Henan and Heilongjiang provinces, which had undergone maintenance earlier, resumed production fully, leading to a MoM increase in production. Additionally, a mine in Jilin province expanded production in July, resulting in an increase in output compared to the previous period. At the end of July, a mine in Inner Mongolia halted production due to a sudden accident, affecting part of the molybdenum concentrate output, but the overall impact was limited. Subsequent attention is still needed on the recovery of enterprise operations. In July, due to stable production and sales in the upstream and downstream sectors, molybdenum concentrate inventory within the industry remained low. Coupled with the sudden production halt of a copper-molybdenum mine enterprise in Inner Mongolia at the end of the month, concerns over molybdenum concentrate supply intensified, leading to a rapid increase in tender prices from mainstream mines at the month-end. The mainstream transaction prices for 45%-50% molybdenum concentrate reached 4,330-4,365 yuan/mtu, stimulating the willingness to sell of other molybdenum concentrate enterprises.

Entering August, the profitability of China's molybdenum concentrate industry is objective, and enterprises' willingness to voluntarily halt production for maintenance has decreased. However, considering that a certain copper-molybdenum mine in Inner Mongolia may find it difficult to resume production in the short term, affecting part of the molybdenum concentrate supply in August, it is expected that the total domestic molybdenum concentrate production in August may show a slight decrease.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 2.8% MoM and increased by 12.5% YoY.

In July, the domestic ferromolybdenum market price fluctuated at highs. The demand from downstream sectors such as stainless steel remained stable, with steel tender volumes exceeding 13,000 mt, and market transactions were active. However, the molybdenum concentrate market also fluctuated at highs, exerting significant cost pressure on ferromolybdenum. Most enterprises were operating at a loss, with insufficient willingness to take orders at low prices. Some enterprises reduced their production capacity, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates.

Entering August, the production schedule for domestic stainless steel and other molybdenum-containing steel products remained largely stable MoM. Downstream demand for molybdenum was relatively stable. However, due to low inventory levels of raw materials (ore) at ferromolybdenum plants and a significant increase in ore prices at month-end, some enterprises' purchase willingness declined, and there might be passive production cuts due to insufficient raw material inventory. It is expected that domestic ferromolybdenum production will have difficulty growing in August.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM statistics, China's APT production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 6% MoM and increased by 3.8% YoY.

In July, the domestic tungsten concentrate market surged significantly. The APT industry faced poor profitability, leading some enterprises to suspend taking spot orders and focus more on shipments under long-term contracts. Industry operating rates declined due to profitability issues. Additionally, some APT enterprises in Jiangxi and other regions underwent maintenance during the month, further tightening market production.

In August, the tungsten concentrate market remains tight, with difficulties in restocking. It is expected that tungsten concentrate prices will not experience a significant correction. The APT industry faces challenges in improving profitability, and enterprises have low enthusiasm for operating. It is anticipated that production will remain largely stable.

Silver

In July 2025, silver production continued its upward trend, increasing by approximately 1.4% MoM from June. Smelters that underwent maintenance in June resumed operations as scheduled in July. The production recovery and increase at a large-scale smelter in Guangxi after maintenance contributed significantly to the production growth. A smelter in Hunan increased its silver production in July due to adjustments in raw material grade. Additionally, by-product silver production from copper, lead, and zinc smelters in Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions increased marginally. The reduction in production was mainly due to the impact of maintenance at lead smelters. Partial maintenance at a lead smelter in Henan led to a decline in the supply of silver anode slime raw materials, resulting in a slight downward adjustment in silver production in July. Another lead smelter experienced a decline in silver production due to the extension of maintenance and shutdown of the precious and rare metal production line during the regular maintenance in June-July, which continued into early July.

Entering August, despite the increase brought about by the resumption of production at smelters—the smelter in Henan that underwent maintenance earlier is expected to resume and increase production, and the precious and rare metal workshop of the lead smelter in Inner Mongolia that resumed regular maintenance in July will gradually return to full production in August, with a slight increase in production expected—the smelter that saw a slight increase in production in July may not be able to maintain stable output in August. The risk of silver prices jumping initially and then pulling back has made smelters cautious in purchasing high-grade silver-bearing raw materials during the stockpiling process, fearing a price drop. SMM expects that refined silver production in August may decline slightly by 0.68%.

Silver Nitrate

In July 2025, the MoM increase in silver nitrate production was approximately 10%. Apart from the impact of a lower production base in June, solar cell production in mid-to-late July was better than expected. Some medium-to-large solar cell enterprises mentioned an expansion in silver paste procurement needs due to concentrated order delivery, boosting the production of some silver powder and silver nitrate manufacturers. Silver nitrate plant orders varied greatly in July. Some plants experienced a decline in production due to processing fees approaching losses or customers demanding extended payment terms, leading them to voluntarily abandon orders. However, downstream consumption showed an overall improvement compared to June, with silver nitrate production maintaining positive growth. Entering August, silver nitrate enterprises have mixed expectations for order performance, with silver nitrate production in August expected to remain stable or decline slightly compared to July.

Please note that the MoM growth of SMM data for July production expanded due to capacity expansion in our survey sample. Before the adjustment, silver nitrate production in June was 680 mt, and in July it was 759 mt, with an MoM increase of 11.62%. After the sample adjustment, silver nitrate production in June was 820 mt, and in July it was 909 mt, with an MoM increase of 10.85%.

(The June production data in the database remains at 680 mt, while the July production is adjusted to 909 mt based on sample adjustments. Due to the fact that historical June data will not be synchronously modified, the MoM increase in July production in the SMM database is amplified.)

Antimony ingot

According to SMM's assessment, in July 2025, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) production declined significantly by over 20% MoM, reaching approximately 24.5% compared to the previous month. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers assessed by SMM, 17 producers halted production, an increase of 2 from the previous month; 14 producers experienced production cuts, a decrease of 1 from the previous month; and 2 producers maintained normal production levels, a decrease of 1 from the previous month. In terms of antimony ingot production, after overall production fell below 5,000 mt in June, it continued to decline sharply to below 4,000 mt in July. Following a significant drop in June production, antimony production in July dropped again. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon. Currently, overseas ore sources still cannot enter the domestic market in large quantities, and the progress of domestic mine shutdowns is accelerating. The current situation of high antimony ore prices and limited supply is evident in some major mining areas in both northern and southern China. Market participants indicated that a large number of producers entered maintenance and shutdown periods starting in June, limiting production. In July, more than half of the producers were in shutdown status. With raw materials becoming increasingly scarce in the future, it is expected that more producers will halt or cut production. Market participants predict that the possibility of a rebound and increase in China's antimony ingot production in August 2025 compared to July is relatively small, and it is more likely to remain stable or even continue to decline slightly.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) nationwide. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveyed a total of 33 antimony ingot producers, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, the production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China in July 2025 declined slightly by around 2.3% MoM compared to the previous month. After experiencing significant fluctuations in production for several consecutive months, the production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China has rebounded slightly from June but has once again pulled back slightly, prompting many market participants to marvel at the ever-changing market dynamics. However, many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as traditionally, July-August is the off-season for orders from PV glass factories. The reduction in production by many manufacturers in July is also related to the decrease in orders, and it remains uncertain whether this situation will persist into August. From a detailed data perspective, among SMM's 13 survey respondents, 3 manufacturers were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in July, while 4 sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers experienced a certain increase in production, but 3 manufacturers also saw a significant decline in production. Consequently, this has led to a slight decrease in the overall production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China in July. Market participants anticipate that the possibility of a significant decline in the national production of sodium pyroantimonate in August compared to July is relatively small, with a greater likelihood of it remaining flat or continuing to decline slightly.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing its assessment of the national production of sodium pyroantimonate. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 6 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, the production of refined bismuth in China in July 2025 declined slightly by around 1.4% MoM compared to the national production of refined bismuth in June. After experiencing a sudden and significant decline in bismuth production in May, the production has maintained a downward trend for two consecutive months, which was within the expectations of many market participants. Market participants indicate that due to the ongoing tight supply of raw materials and recent environmental protection concerns, it is reasonable for manufacturers' production to stagnate or even continue to decline. From the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many bismuth raw materials have been sold at high prices, with the transaction price of a recent batch of bismuth concentrate even approaching the price of finished products, indicating fierce competition for raw materials in the market. From the production perspective of producers, some producers are still undergoing equipment maintenance, and many producers are showing a stable or slightly declining trend in production. As a result, the overall domestic production still declined compared to June, but the decline was no longer significant compared to the previous month. Looking at the detailed data, none of the 24 surveyed producers by SMM saw a significant increase in production in July, but 2 producers resumed production after completing maintenance. There were 4 producers with a significant decrease in production, while the production of the remaining producers remained relatively unchanged. Many market participants predict that the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide in August will be difficult to alleviate. Producers are currently competing fiercely for production raw materials such as bismuth concentrate, and it is highly likely that production will continue to be affected. The possibility of refined bismuth production remaining stable or continuing to drop back slightly is high, while the possibility of another significant decline is relatively small.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its nationwide refined bismuth production assessment. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, the total number of surveyed refined bismuth producers by SMM is 24, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In July 2025, the domestic monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded the 80,000 mt mark for the first time, with a 4% MoM increase and a significant 26% YoY increase. The main driving force behind the production growth was the emergence of hedging opportunities in the futures market, stimulating lithium chemical enterprises who operated at low capacity earlier to resume production one after another, leading to a significant rebound in the overall supply capacity of the industry.

Break down by raw material: Spodumene-derived production increased significantly, while lepidolite and salt lake-derived production dropped back slightly.

Lithium carbonate derived from spodumene: The total production in July increased by 14% MoM. On the one hand, some first- and second-tier lithium chemical plants resumed production, contributing to the increase; on the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants increased their operating rates under the stimulation of futures hedging profits, driving production growth.

Lithium carbonate derived from lepidolite: The total production decreased by 8% MoM. The mining license issues in Jiangxi province have raised market concerns, but the relevant mines are still maintaining normal production. A leading lithium chemical plant was affected by production line maintenance, resulting in July production not reaching the previous peak, leading to a certain pullback in overall lepidolite-derived lithium production.

Lithium carbonate derived from salt lake: Total production decreased by 2% MoM, mainly due to production reductions and suspensions at some salt lake enterprises caused by mining issues, while other enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.

Lithium carbonate from recycling: Total production increased by 10% MoM in July, primarily benefiting from the rise in lithium carbonate prices, which boosted the production enthusiasm of recycling enterprises. However, the overall production volume remained relatively weak.

Outlook for August: Uncertainties still exist for Jiangxi mines, but overall production is expected to maintain growth.

The lithium carbonate market in August still faces uncertainties regarding mining policies in the Jiangxi region. If extreme situations occur (such as mine suspensions), relevant lithium chemical plants can still rely on inventories and spot purchases to maintain a small amount of production. Additionally, supported by hedging profits in the spodumene-derived lithium carbonate sector and the expectation of some flexible production lines continuing to ramp up, the total lithium carbonate production in August is expected to still have growth potential. Subsequent attention should be paid to the specific implementation of mining policies in the Jiangxi region.

Lithium hydroxide

According to SMM data, domestic lithium hydroxide production in July increased slightly MoM but decreased by 22% YoY. In the smelting sector, ternary cathode material orders were slightly better than expected, with downstream and end-users picking up more cargoes. Some manufacturers produced based on sales, leading to an increase in output. Coupled with new production capacity being in the ramp-up stage, smelting sector production increased by 2% MoM. In the causticisation sector, due to a slight recovery in orders at some enterprises, output increased by 8% MoM.

Looking ahead to August, due to limited market expectations, some lithium chemical plants plan to switch flexible production lines to produce lithium carbonate, and smelting sector production is expected to drop back slightly. Meanwhile, due to planned production suspensions at some causticisation enterprises, causticisation sector production will also decrease. Overall, total lithium hydroxide production in August is expected to decrease by 5% MoM and 24% YoY.

Cobalt sulphate

In July 2025, SMM's cobalt sulphate production decreased by 9.56% MoM and increased by 1.01% YoY.

From the perspective of raw material structure, cobalt intermediate products accounted for approximately 53%, MHP about 18%, and recycled materials roughly 29%. Due to the extension of the DRC's export ban, cobalt intermediate product prices have continued to rise, and smelters' inventories of cobalt intermediate product have gradually decreased. Currently, recycled materials and MHP are gradually squeezing out cobalt intermediate products.

In terms of supply, the spot price of cobalt sulphate showed an overall upward trend in July. However, due to the larger increase in cobalt intermediate product prices, the losses of cobalt sulphate smelters further expanded. Some cobalt sulphate smelters, due to weak production economics or shortages of raw material, still chose to reduce cobalt sulphate production and switch to producing other cobalt products with better economics.

From the demand side, July was still in the off-season for consumption. Orders from downstream ternary and Co3O4 enterprises did not show significant improvement. They chose to wait and see the market, mainly digesting inventories. A few enterprises with shorter days of raw material inventories focused on just-in-time procurement, with demand remaining relatively stable.

It is expected that by August, the issue of tight cobalt intermediate product supply will become more pronounced. Smelters' production schedules will become more cautious. Some enterprises with relatively limited inventories will continue to choose to reduce cobalt sulphate production or even halt production. It is expected that cobalt sulphate production schedules in August will decrease by 3.57% MoM.

Co3O4

In July 2025, Co3O4 production dropped back slightly by 2% MoM, but still achieved a significant growth of 25% YoY. On the supply side, producers faced pressure from tightening raw material supplies, leading some factories to gradually take measures to halt or reduce production. In response to price fluctuations and raw material shortages, enterprises have increased the proportion of toll processing, which has now exceeded 50%. On the demand side, growth in downstream application areas has driven the procurement of Co3O4.

Looking ahead to August, it is expected that the tight raw material supply situation will further intensify. Against this backdrop, the proportion of toll processing and long-term agreement orders for Co3O4 enterprises will continue to increase, while demand in the spot market will continue to be squeezed. Constrained by the shortage of raw materials and adjustments in production modes, the overall production schedules of Co3O4 enterprises are expected to tighten further. Based on comprehensive analysis, the overall market supply in August may continue its downward trend, with an anticipated MoM decline expanding to around 7%.

Ternary cathode precursor

In July 2025, SMM's production of ternary cathode precursors showed a steady growth trend, with a MoM increase of 5.71% and a YoY increase of 5.52%. From the perspective of product series structure, the market landscape remained stable, with the 5-series precursor accounting for 15.65%, the 6-series product maintaining a dominant position with a 42.89% share, and the 8-series and 9-series occupying market shares of 27.39% and 9.96%, respectively. In the power battery application sector, the 6-series product continued to be the mainstream choice in the domestic NEV market, while overseas NEV markets remained dominated by high-nickel products. Notably, the demand for 9-series products has recently shown an upward trend, slightly squeezing the market share of 8-series materials. In the consumer electronics market, with increased attention to high-nickel products, the market share of 5-series products has slightly declined. Currently, the growth trend of ternary cathode precursor production is positive, with the main driving factors including: firstly, after the industry-wide destocking by producers in June due to the semi-annual period, the industry entered a phased restocking cycle in July; secondly, in anticipation of the traditional automotive market's "September-October peak season," precursor producers initiated early stockpiling; thirdly, the market's bullish expectations on the prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prompted some downstream cathode material producers to adopt early procurement strategies, resulting in a front-load orders effect.

Looking ahead to August, although the traditional peak season is approaching, the production growth rate is expected to slow down, with an anticipated MoM increase of 5.4%, as some orders have been front-loaded to July.

Ternary cathode material

In July 2025, SMM's production of ternary cathode materials continued its growth trend, with a MoM increase of 5.75% and a significant YoY increase of 16.65%. The industry's overall operating rate rebounded to 45%, slightly higher than that in June. From the product structure perspective, the 5-series material accounted for 15.05%, while the 6-series material maintained its lead with a 36.61% share. The 8-series and 9-series materials held 29.06% and 17.37% market shares, respectively. As the mainstream product in China's power battery market, the 6-series material continues to expand its market share, while overseas markets remain dominated by high-nickel products, with notably growing demand for 9-series material, partially substituting the 8-series. In the power battery sector, ternary cathode material orders are concentrated among leading producers. With the approaching September-October peak season for auto sales, cathode material producers have initiated stockpiling. In the consumer electronics market, anticipating rising raw material prices, some battery cell manufacturers adopted early procurement strategies. This front-load order effect effectively boosted cathode material demand. Additionally, the demand gap left by manufacturers exiting the market due to recent power bank recalls prompted others to accelerate market expansion, further stimulating order growth.

Looking ahead to August, as some front-load orders were already fulfilled in July, ternary cathode material production growth is expected to slow moderately, with a projected MoM increase of 3.07%.

Iron phosphate

Domestic iron phosphate production rose 9% MoM and surged 70% YoY in July. Supply side, output growth was significant: integrated producers saw notable increases in iron phosphate production, while capacity expansions at some companies also contributed. However, concentrated releases of new capacity squeezed shipments from existing producers, causing some to underperform. Demand side, LFP demand rose sharply, with buyers favoring cost-effective, high-quality iron phosphate at lower prices. Market expectations for iron phosphate prices weakened, but quality requirements continued to rise. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP prices pulled back significantly from June levels amid the off-season, while ferrous sulphate prices kept climbing, substantially increasing iron source cost pressure for iron phosphate producers.

In August, with the continuous release of new capacity, iron phosphate production is expected to continue growing, projected to increase 3% MoM and 56% YoY.

LFP

In July, China's LFP cathode material production rose approximately 1.86% MoM and 36% YoY, with an industry operating rate around 58%. July marked the traditional off-season for auto sales, resulting in subdued overall demand from downstream battery cell manufacturers. Leading LFP material producers maintained relatively stable operating rates, while some second- and third-tier ones reduced output, primarily due to product price adjustments and downstream demand fluctuations. By application segment, LFP material producers saw declining orders from the NEV market. This was partly caused by production line upgrades at a major cell manufacturer, which disrupted normal operations and reduced corresponding cathode material orders. Additionally, weak NEV sales—with August being the traditional auto sales off-season—led to lower power battery cell production in July. However, LFP orders from ESS sector performed well. The US postponed its reciprocal tariff hike by 90 days, keeping downstream cell manufacturers' US orders active. Meanwhile, supportive policies in Eastern Europe and other overseas markets boosted household ESS installations. Domestically, ESS projects continued to benefit from local government policies, driving demand growth and contributing to the slight MoM increase in LFP cathode material production. Looking ahead to August, the NEV market will see early stockpiling for the September-October peak season, while the ESS market will maintain steady growth. LFP cathode material producers are expected to accelerate production accordingly.

LCO

In July 2025, LCO production showed significant growth, up 7% MoM and 30% YoY. Demand side, the 3C consumer market expanded, with major brands entering a concentrated new product launch season starting September, coinciding with the approaching September-October peak sales period, prompting downstream end-user producers to stockpile. Moreover, widespread market expectations of rising LCO prices encouraged some firms to place orders in advance to build inventory. Supply side, LCO cathode material producers generally adopted a "produce based on sales" strategy, increasing operating rates in response to rising downstream procurement demand.

Looking ahead to August, downstream demand is expected to remain stable with slight growth. Against this backdrop, LCO producers are likely to maintain the "produce based on sales" approach, with monthly production projected to increase slightly by about 1% MoM.

LMO

In July 2025, LMO production continued its upward trend MoM while also demonstrating strong YoY growth rate. From the supply perspective, the market exhibited phased characteristics in the month: most producers maintained stable production in the first ten days; from mid-month, a sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices injected positive sentiment into the market, directly prompting LMO manufacturers to collectively initiate production expansion plans in the latter part of the month, leading to increased supply. Demand side displayed subtle changes typical of the off-season: downstream battery cell manufacturers focused on rigid demand, with overall market activity remaining low. However, concerns about continued price increases prompted some companies to engage in small-scale stockpiling, preventing drastic demand fluctuations.

Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations are optimistic: as downstream market activity is expected to recover, inquiries may gradually increase, further stimulating LMO producers' enthusiasm. Driven by these factors, LMO supply is projected to achieve another MoM increase, with YoY growth rate continuing to expand.

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey involves professional analysts conducting monthly tracking of Chinese metal producers through phone interviews and field surveys, subsequently issuing China metal production reports.

The survey ensures baseline sample coverage while continuously expanding it, with samples reasonably selected and distributed considering factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature to ensure representativeness across all sub-items.

Results are officially released monthly via SMM's website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn) at month-end.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market survey, and relying on SMM's internal database models. These data are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.