SMM Exclusive: Metal Production Overview for March 2025 and April Forecast

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

Metal Production Overview for March 2025 and April Forecast

Copper Cathode

In March, SMM's China copper cathode production increased by 63,900 mt MoM, up 6.04%, and rose 12.27% YoY. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274,500 mt YoY, up 9.4%.

The significant increase in copper cathode production in March was mainly due to the following reasons: 1. According to our statistics, only two smelters had maintenance plans in March, but the impact on actual production was relatively small, with some manufacturers indicating that the maintenance effects would be reflected in April; 2. Although copper concentrate TCs are at historically low levels (as of March 28, the weekly index for imported copper concentrates was -$24.14/mt), many smelters were still actively producing to achieve a strong start in Q1; 3. The capacity utilization rate of newly commissioned smelters in the southwest was increasing; 4. Recent continuous increases in sulphuric acid prices have, to some extent, offset the losses of smelters; 5. The significant rise in copper prices has led to an increase in copper scrap supply compared to before, and smelters have increased their purchases of copper scrap, supplementing the shortage of copper concentrates.

In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in March was 87.68%, up 4.86 percentage points MoM; among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.43%, up 4.8 percentage points MoM, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 81.37%, up 4.56 percentage points MoM, and the operating rate of small smelters was 71.63%, up 6.78 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 91.7%, up 4.7 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or copper anode) was 68.1%, up 5.7 percentage points MoM, as increased raw material supply led to higher operating rates.

Entering April, according to our statistics, three smelters currently have maintenance plans, with an estimated affected volume of around 24,000 mt. Additionally, although copper concentrate supply is tight, some smelters have started to reduce the amount of copper concentrate fed, but by increasing the amount of copper scrap and copper anode fed, leaving copper cathode production stable. After taking account into the commissioning of new smelters in east China and the increase in capacity utilization of smelters in the southwest, domestic total production will see only a slight decline.

Based on the production schedules of various companies, SMM expects domestic copper cathode production in April to decrease by 5,800 mt MoM, down 0.52%, and increase by 131,200 mt YoY, up 13.32%. The cumulative production from January to April increased by 405,700 mt YoY, up 10.39%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in April will be 87.34%, down 0.34 percentage points MoM; among them, the operating rate of large smelters will be 91.2%, down 0.23 percentage points MoM, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters will be 80.83%, down 0.54 percentage points MoM, and the operating rate of small smelters will be 70.90%, down 0.73 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates will be 91.4%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode instead) was 67.7%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM. We expect production in May to continue to decline, mainly due to increased smelter maintenance and tight raw material supply.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. Domestic aluminum operating capacity increased MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some resumptions in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels, with the industry's liquid aluminum proportion increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream billet plants in Guangxi reduced production, leading to a decline in the liquid aluminum proportion at some local aluminum plants by the end of the month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.

Capacity changes: As of the end of March, SMM statistics show that domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.81 million mt, and domestic aluminum operating capacity was around 43.88 million mt, with the industry's operating rate increasing by 0.5 percentage points MoM and 2.8 percentage points YoY to 95.8%. Currently, aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Chongqing have basically completed resumption of production, and a technologically transformed aluminum plant in Guangxi is expected to resume production around October 2025, while another smelter in Guangxi, which cut production earlier due to losses, has resumed production; in addition, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai has started production, contributing to the growth momentum of subsequent aluminum operating capacity.

Production forecast: Entering April 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to rise again as some smelters start production and reach full capacity, with domestic aluminum annualized operating capacity expected to slightly increase to 43.92 million mt/year by the end of April. Aluminum prices are fluctuating at highs, and downstream demand has increased as the peak season approaches, but under the background of end-users driving down prices, processing fees for aluminum billets have declined, and losses in Guangxi's billet plants have led to renewed production cuts. The liquid aluminum proportion in April may slightly correct to around 73%. Subsequent attention should be paid to the resumption of aluminum capacity in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream liquid aluminum such as aluminum billets.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 8.86% MoM and 11.32% YoY. As of the end of March, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was around 105.02 million mt, with actual operating capacity decreasing by 1.68% MoM and an operating rate of 84.64%.

During the month, the operating capacity of domestic alumina refineries varied, but overall, national metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity decreased MoM. In terms of new capacity, some commissioned capacities in Guangxi have started production; in terms of production cuts, as alumina prices continued to decline while ore prices remained high, some alumina producers have chosen to conduct maintenance under loss pressure, while some alumina companies have reduced production, leading to a decline in operating rates. Although recent alumina operating capacity has decreased, alumina supply still exceeds demand from domestic aluminum production. Additionally, due to the decline in overseas alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has closed, and except for some alumina flows to Russia under long-term contracts, alumina export demand is limited. In the short term, the spot market for alumina may maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot prices may continue to fluctuate downward.

April forecast: Currently, many alumina refineries have reported maintenance plans for April, and some alumina refineries have adjusted their operating capacity. Additionally, the planned commissioning time for new capacities in Guangxi and Hebei is approaching, but the specific commissioning time is undecided, and SMM will continue to track this. Overall, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity in April may further decrease, with an expected domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity of 87.23 million mt/year. Continued attention should be paid to changes in alumina capacity and alumina import and export situations.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in March 2025 increased by 2.1% YoY, with an average monthly operating rate of 88.5%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.9% YoY.

The increase in overseas aluminum production mainly came from resumption increments. The resumption process at Trimet's three plants in Germany is proceeding smoothly, with the Essen (165,000 mt/year) and Hamburg (135,000 mt/year) plants expected to return to full production by mid-year, while the Voerde (95,000 mt/year) plant plans to achieve full production in Q4 2025. The remaining capacity to be resumed totals around 94,000 mt. However, Rio Tinto's Tiwai Point smelter in New Zealand has suspended its resumption process, with the restart time delayed until August 31 at the latest, to ensure that Meridian Energy can secure 50MW of power supply this winter. Previously, the aluminum smelter had proactively reduced 205MW of power demand in response to energy shortages during the winter of 2024, reducing annual capacity by around 125,000 mt. After the winter, capacity gradually resumed from October, with full production originally planned for April this year. However, due to concerns about power supply in the winter of 2025, Rio Tinto and its power supplier Meridian Energy agreed to suspend the resumption process to ensure 50MW of power supply. The plant's existing capacity is 365,000 mt, and the current resumption progress is about 70%.

EGA announced its 2024 production situation, with liquid aluminum production increasing to 2.69 million mt, up 30,000 mt.

Looking ahead to April, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 2% YoY, with a capacity utilization rate of about 87.7%, down 0.8% MoM, as Vedanta Balco's aluminum smelter in India is expected to start commissioning expanded capacity.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in March 2025 increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries reaching 81.9%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY.

On March 14, 2025, Rusal announced that it would acquire a 26% stake in India's Pioneer Aluminium Industries Limited for $243.75 million, with plans to increase its stake to 50% in stages. This move aims to reduce reliance on external alumina supply. Pioneer owns a 1.5 million mt/year metallurgical-grade alumina refinery in Andhra Pradesh, India. The plant was shut down due to funding problems in 2015, resumed operations in April 2022, and achieved approximately 35 billion rupees in operating income in Q3 2023. After the transaction, Rusal, Pioneer, and KCap Group will supply bauxite and obtain alumina according to their shareholding ratios, stabilizing the supply chain and optimizing costs.

Looking ahead to April, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 3.7% YoY. The operating rate is expected to reach 82.1%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

Primary Lead

In March 2025, national primary lead production increased significantly, up 15.97 percentage points MoM and 13.41 percentage points YoY. The cumulative primary lead production from January to March 2025 increased by 5.47 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that in March, as working days increased, primary lead smelters generally increased production compared to February, which was the main reason for the monthly production increase. Among them, except for a few smelters in Yunnan and Henan that had equipment maintenance issues, the vast majority of other companies resumed production after maintenance, including medium and large smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangdong. Additionally, smelters in Hunan resumed production after completing equipment upgrades; due to the strengthening of lead prices, some smelters' production enthusiasm increased, leading to increased production, which pushed March primary lead production to a historical high for a single month.

Compared to the same period last year, primary lead production in March 2025 and the cumulative production in Q1 both increased YoY, mainly due to the commissioning of new capacities and increments from equipment upgrades, including medium and large lead smelters in Henan, Hunan, and Qinghai.

Looking ahead to April, primary lead smelters will have both maintenance and resumption, and April production is likely to remain basically stable compared to March. In April, smelters in Hunan and Yunnan will continue to resume production after maintenance, while large smelters in Henan will enter maintenance, almost offsetting the incremental production of primary lead for the month. Meanwhile, we need to pay attention to the impact of lead prices on the production enthusiasm of lead smelters. If lead prices pull back significantly, it may lead to expectations of production reduction plans among smelters.

Secondary Lead

In March 2025, the production of secondary crude lead increased significantly, up 94.34% MoM and 15.21% YoY. The production of secondary refined lead rose 110.48% MoM and 11.24% YoY.

In March, the center of lead prices shifted significantly higher compared to February, bringing profits for secondary lead smelters. Smelters showed high production enthusiasm during the month, with most increasing output compared to February. Additionally, new secondary lead capacity of approximately 500,000 mt/year was added in Jiangsu and Guizhou. The new smelter in Jiangsu began normal production in March, while the new smelter in Guizhou started with a small amount of feed in March, with full production planned for early April. Large smelters in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, and Ningxia, which had undergone maintenance earlier, resumed and stabilized production in March. Multiple medium and large smelters in Jiangxi, Hubei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia resumed production in late February and contributed significantly to output in March through normal ramp-up. During the month, a small number of enterprises saw slight production declines due to environmental protection inspections, control measures, and tight raw material inventories. In summary, March saw a surge in secondary lead production driven by favorable operating profits, new capacity coming online, and the resumption and ramp-up of medium and large smelters, reaching a new high in nearly a year and a half.

Entering April, new capacity still has plans for increased production. Although most secondary lead smelters expressed concerns about tight raw material supply in April, they did not mention any active production cut plans. Data suggests that secondary lead production in April will be basically flat compared to March.

SMM reminds that April is the traditional consumption off-season for lead-acid batteries. If downstream battery producers show weak willingness to purchase lead ingots, and the scrap battery market sees low scrapping volumes coupled with high operating rates for secondary lead, leading to increased sentiment among recyclers to hold back cargoes, it is possible that secondary lead enterprises may face production cut in mid-to-late April.

Refined Zinc

In March 2025, SMM China's refined zinc production increased by nearly 14% MoM and over 4% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of around 3% from January to March, slightly higher than expected. Domestic zinc alloy production also increased MoM in March. Entering March, domestic smelter production increased significantly, driven by the rebound in zinc concentrate TCs and rising sulphuric acid prices, boosting smelter enthusiasm. In addition to three more production days, the resumption of Chinese New Year maintenance in Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Sichuan, as well as increased and overproduction in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Henan, contributed to the main increments. Meanwhile, maintenance in Hunan, Gansu, and Guizhou contributed minor reductions. Overall, March production exceeded expectations.

SMM expects China's refined zinc production in April 2025 to increase by 4% MoM and over 12% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of around 1% from January to April. Overall, smelter production will continue to rise in April, mainly due to improved smelter profits. Except for minor routine maintenance in Yunnan and Liaoning, other enterprises have postponed maintenance plans. Additionally, previously halted enterprises in Hunan have mostly resumed production, and enterprises in Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Hunan are actively increasing production, contributing to the main increments. Smelter production will continue to grow.

Refined Tin

According to SMM data based on market exchanges, China's refined tin production in March 2025 increased by 7.33% MoM but declined by 3.06% YoY. Although the Chinese New Year holiday had ended, the continued tightness in tin concentrate and scrap tin supply chains imposed constraints on capacity, resulting in a limited rebound in overall operating rates, falling short of market expectations.

Yunnan Production Area: Pressure on the raw material side is prominent, with imports of Myanmar ore remaining below 30,000 mt for several consecutive months, causing tin concentrate TCs to continue falling to historical lows. Smelter profits are under pressure, limiting production enthusiasm.

Resumption Status: Capacity utilization rates saw a slight rebound in March, but the raw material gap worsened due to the shutdown of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the prolonged preparation period for resumption in Myanmar. Operating rates remain below Q4 2024 levels.

Jiangxi Production Area: Reliant on the scrap tin recycling system, but seasonal stagnation in winter scrap recycling shortened raw material inventory cycles. However, rising scrap sorting costs and weak downstream orders have delayed capacity recovery.

Inner Mongolia Production Area: Stable operations ensured by captive mines, making it one of the few production areas not impacted by raw material shortages.

Anhui and Emerging Production Areas: Affected by shortages in scrap and tin concentrates, overall production recovery fell short of expectations, with operating rates seeing a slight rebound.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production in April is expected to increase by around 2% MoM. Driving factors include the resumption of some halted maintenance enterprises and increased tin ore imports stimulated by tin prices.

Refined Nickel

In March 2025, national refined nickel production increased by 20.83% MoM and 37.42% YoY. The industry operating rate was 64%, up 10% MoM. With more production days in March, enterprise operating rates improved, leading to supply growth.

In terms of prices, nickel prices showed sideways movement in March but trended upward compared to February. In the short term, Indonesian nickel ore prices remain strong, mainly due to: (1) the rainy season in Indonesia not yet fully ending, keeping supply tight; (2) the PNBP policy in Indonesia driving sentiment higher. Under tight supply and demand, nickel ore prices continued to rise in March, pushing up nickel price costs. Overall, recent nickel prices are strongly supported by costs and still have some upward potential.

In March 2025, national refined nickel production increased by 20.83% MoM and 37.42% YoY. Meanwhile, enterprise operating rates generally rose. However, demand recovery has been slow, and with volatile nickel prices, many enterprises have chosen to wait and see. On the supply side, some enterprises achieved production increases or officially launched new projects in March, keeping overall industry supply at high levels. As of March 28, SMM's six-region inventory totaled 47,423 mt, with the market still showing a supply surplus.

In April, attention will continue to focus on demand recovery. Under a supply surplus, production is expected to increase by 0.18% MoM and 38.82% YoY.

Nickel Pig Iron

In March 2025, national NPI production in physical content increased by around 3.45% MoM, while metal content decreased by around 2.25%. The overall NPI production showed an increase in physical content but a decline in metal content. This was mainly due to the rainy season in the Philippines, with smelters' earlier nickel ore inventories depleting and Philippine nickel ore imports entering a low phase, leading some high-grade NPI smelters to enter annual maintenance, resulting in weaker production. On the other hand, the rise in NPI physical content was mainly driven by low-grade NPI supply. As the stainless steel market began to recover in March, especially with the expanded price increase in the 300-series, the economic viability of the 200-series improved, leading to a short-term increase in downstream demand. Integrated stainless steel mills expanded 200-series production schedules, increasing demand for low-grade NPI, with integrated low-grade pig iron showing significant increments. Overall, the decline in metal content in March was mainly due to reductions in high-grade NPI.

National NPI production in April 2025 is expected to decrease by around 0.49% MoM in physical content but increase by around 0.34% MoM in metal content. According to SMM surveys, domestic smelter nickel ore inventories are expected to be replenished after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines. With the economic advantage of self-produced high-grade NPI over externally purchased NPI expanding, some integrated stainless steel mills have increased high-grade NPI production, boosting metal content for the month. Additionally, with a slight decline in 200-series stainless steel production, the production of low-grade NPI at integrated stainless mills will decrease, leading to a slight decline in low-grade NPI production in physical content for the month.

Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron

In March 2025, Indonesian NPI metal content increased by around 6.16% MoM and 20.01% YoY. March saw frequent policy changes in Indonesia regarding nickel resources, increasing market uncertainty about Indonesian nickel supply. Coupled with Indonesian nickel ore output falling short of expectations and low smelter nickel ore inventories, the overall increase was limited. In terms of specific supply increments, some new capacity was released but only saw minor increases due to limited nickel ore supply. Additionally, a production line in a major production area saw a sharp decline in output in February due to management adjustments, but with external funding support, production gradually recovered in March. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production expanded in March, leading to a short-term increase in demand for high-grade NPI, with a major production area also seeing increments in its stainless steel production line. Due to tight supply of medium and high-grade nickel ore, some smelters saw slight production declines due to insufficient raw materials, and with the average grade of nickel ore declining, overall metal content growth in March was weak.

In April 2025, Indonesian NPI metal content is expected to decrease by around 0.44% MoM but increase by around 15.3% YoY. Medium and high-grade nickel ore output in Indonesia is expected to remain tight in April, with smelter NPI metal content continuing to decline. According to SMM surveys, production in major production areas is basically stable compared to March, with a production line previously affected by management adjustments gradually ramping up, but the ramp-up is limited due to tight nickel ore supply. From the downstream demand perspective, domestic stainless steel production schedules remain high, providing strong support for NPI demand. Overall, production is expected to see a slight decline due to fewer production days and a decline in average grade.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, in March 2025, SMM's nickel sulphate production reached around 26,000 mt in metal content and 118,300 mt in physical content, up 9.05% MoM but down 23.30% YoY. On the demand side, due to more calendar days in March, downstream demand generally returned, leading to increased demand for nickel sulphate. On the supply side, battery-grade nickel sulphate production also increased due to the resumption of some nickel salt smelters and improved orders from leading integrated enterprises.

In April, SMM's nickel sulphate production is expected to rise to 27,900 mt in metal content and 126,800 mt in physical content, up 7.19% MoM but down 19.04% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In March 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production saw both MoM and YoY growth. This was mainly due to some high-purity manganese sulphate smelters resuming stable production and gradually increasing output in March, leading to increased market supply. From the downstream demand perspective, rising cobalt sulphate prices affected ternary precursor enterprises' procurement of sulphates, resulting in relatively stable demand for manganese sulphate, even showing some decline. Therefore, the demand side did not bring benefits to manganese salt smelters. By April 2025, the downstream ternary precursor market may see a slight recovery, potentially driving further production increases at manganese salt smelters. Meanwhile, major manganese salt smelters will maintain normal production, with output expected to increase MoM but still show a YoY decline.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide

In March 2025, electrolytic manganese dioxide production saw a slight MoM increase and a significant YoY increase. This was mainly driven by the recovery of the primary battery market, with demand slightly increasing, boosting production of EMD used for carbon-zinc and alkaline manganese battery. However, the secondary battery market remained in the off-season, with no significant demand improvement, and production of manganese dioxide used for LMO battery remained stable. By April 2025, the LMO market is expected to recover, driving increased production of manganese dioxide used in LMO battery, with overall manganese dioxide production expected to continue a slight upward trend in April.

Mn3O4

In March 2025, Mn3O4 production increased slightly MoM, with a significant rise YoY. This trend was mainly attributed to the increase in LMO production in March, as Mn3O4, its primary raw material, saw rising demand. Additionally, low inventory levels in the downstream LMO market led to just-in-time procurement needs, further stimulating Mn3O4 production.

In April 2025, the LMO market is expected to further recover, with growing procurement demand driving an increase in battery-grade Mn3O4 production. However, the oversupply situation in the electronic-grade market is unlikely to change, and its production is expected to remain stable. Overall, Mn3O4 production is projected to continue a slight MoM growth in March, maintaining its upward trend YoY.

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

According to SMM data, in March 2025, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production ended its decline, increasing 6.58% MoM but still down 12.01% YoY. Among them, the production in Inner Mongolia increased 7.83% MoM. In March, the tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from mainstream stainless steel mills remained low. Due to rising chrome ore prices, ferrochrome producers faced severe losses, dampening production enthusiasm. Most ferrochrome producers in south China that had previously halted production maintained the status quo, while large ferrochrome producers in Inner Mongolia, pressured by long-term contract orders and possessing relatively cost advantages, even increased production, leading to a larger share of Inner Mongolia in China's high-carbon ferrochrome production. Additionally, the extended production cycle in March, combined with increased production in Inner Mongolia, jointly drove the growth in China's high-carbon ferrochrome production.

Looking ahead to April 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to further increase. The tender prices of steel mills in April rose slightly. Although most ferrochrome producers still face losses under the current spot ore costs, the extent of losses has eased, boosting production enthusiasm. Previously, ferrochrome production remained low, leading to tight retail supply and a divergence between retail ferrochrome prices and tender prices, with retail prices running high. This situation has reduced the difficulty of shipments for ferrochrome producers focused on retail, restoring profits. Meanwhile, the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," with stainless steel production remaining high and market expectations for future trends positive, indicating an expected increase in high-carbon ferrochrome production.

Stainless Steel

In March 2025, domestic stainless steel production climbed, with total production up 19.02% MoM and 12.67% YoY. Among them, the production of 200-series, 300-series, and 400-series stainless steel increased significantly by 14.64%, 19.89%, and 22.63% MoM, respectively.

In March, stainless steel supply was ample, driven by the industry's strong expectations for the downstream "Golden March and Silver April" peak demand season, stimulating high production enthusiasm among stainless steel mills. Meanwhile, raw material prices remained high, greatly supporting stainless steel production costs, and mills and spot traders raised prices accordingly, attempting to pass cost pressures downstream. However, downstream demand in March did not release as expected, with few new orders, and downstream sectors only maintained just-in-time restocking, unable to drive prices significantly higher. Although stainless steel prices rose in March, overall shipments were poor, inventories remained high, and the market showed an oversupply situation.

Entering April, some stainless steel enterprises conducted equipment upgrades and maintenance due to environmental emission requirements, affecting production to some extent. Benefiting from rising stainless steel prices, stainless steel mill losses narrowed or even turned into profits, maintaining high production enthusiasm. As downstream inventories gradually deplete, the previously underperforming demand window is expected to open, and market demand may see growth.

Overall, stainless steel production in April is expected to remain stable with a slight decrease, down 0.61% MoM but still up 11.87% YoY. By series, 200-series production will increase slightly by 3.17% MoM, while 300-series and 400-series production will decrease by 1.89% and 1.98% MoM, respectively.

EMM

In March 2025, China's EMM production increased by over 10% MoM and over 3% YoY. The main reasons for the increase in March were: most EMM plants focused on delivering previous orders, with a slight increase in operating rates. Additionally, some previously halted EMM plants resumed production, and the number of calendar days in March increased, leading to an overall increase in supply.

Entering April, a few EMM plants are expected to slightly reduce production due to shortages of manganese ore. Other EMM plants maintained stable operations, so the overall monthly supply in the manganese market is expected to fluctuate within a small range.

SiMn Alloy

In March 2025, China's SiMn alloy production increased by over 4% MoM but decreased by over 7% YoY. The main reasons for the increase in March were: high operating rates maintained in regions with relative cost advantages such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, while SiMn alloy plants in other northern regions maintained normal production with little fluctuation in daily output. Additionally, in southern regions, rising manganese ore prices increased raw material costs, putting pressure on SiMn alloy production. Some SiMn alloy plants slightly reduced daily output, but due to the increase in calendar days in March compared to February, overall SiMn alloy production increased slightly.

Entering April, many SiMn alloy plants face shortages of manganese ore inventories, with spot manganese ore prices relatively high, causing severe losses on SiMn alloy plants. Both northern and southern regions have plans to reduce or halt production. Additionally, current SiMn alloy inventories are relatively high, and production growth remains under pressure, so overall SiMn alloy production in April is expected to turn to a decrease.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market exchanges, in March 2025, silicon metal production increased by 51,900 mt, up 17.9% MoM but down 6.6% YoY. From January to March 2025, cumulative silicon metal production decreased by 120,600 mt, down 11.4% YoY.

The significant MoM increase in silicon metal production in March was due to the increase in production days compared to February, as well as the release of increased production capacity in Xinjiang, and the commissioning or resumption of new silicon metal capacities in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan. Although there were some furnace reductions or halts in Qinghai and Yunnan, overall production showed a considerable increase.

In April, some electric arc furnaces in large plants in Xinjiang reduced or halted production, and some silicon enterprises in the north may have minor maintenance plans. The total supply of silicon metal in April is expected to pull back MoM, with production expected to fall to around 300,000 mt. Some silicon enterprises have not finalized their production schedules for April, so there is some uncertainty in supply.

Polysilicon

In March, actual polysilicon production increased slightly compared to February, with a MoM increase of about 6.7%, mainly due to the increase in calendar days. Overall enterprise operating rates were relatively stable, with some enterprises experiencing delays in commissioning, and some second- and third-tier enterprises seeing slight declines in operating rates, mainly based on considerations of their downstream production links. In April, domestic polysilicon enterprises saw mixed changes in operating rates, but influenced by new capacity releases such as Asia Silicon, overall production schedules are expected to rise.

PV Module

According to SMM statistics, in March 2025, China's PV module production increased by about 41.1% MoM, with an industry operating rate of about 52.7%. Module enterprises generally increased production in March, with leading manufacturers showing particularly significant increases. Driven by the "430" installation rush, distributed PV project order demand was strong in March, and leading module manufacturers saw good shipments, with inventories generally falling to low levels. In April, the installation rush is expected to continue, maintaining the heat of centralized shipments. Based on the estimated production schedules of various manufacturers' orders on hand, April production is expected to continue growing compared to March, but the growth rate will slow, with a MoM increase of about 17%. Overall, the module market maintained a hot supply and demand situation in March-April.

Solar Cell

In March, the operating rate of solar cells was 59.89%, with monthly production up 38.83% MoM, and N-type cells accounted for 95.07%. Module production schedules increased in March, with strong cell demand and particularly tight shipments. Shipments of 210RN size in Topcon cells increased significantly, but supply was tight, and prices rose rapidly.

In April, cell supply continued to grow, especially for 210RN and 210N, with MoM increases of about 33.05% and 36.86%, respectively. Solar cell demand remained strong in April, but supply tightness eased slightly.

PV Film

In March, the total production schedule of the PV film industry increased by 28.33% MoM. The main reasons were the dual policy deadline of "430" and "531" driving a surge in distributed PV demand. This boosted module production schedules, leading to increased film production. Under the strong drive of the PV installation rush, film production in April is expected to continue its upward trend.

PV-Grade EVA

In March, PV-grade EVA production schedules increased by 31.35% MoM. The main reasons were some petrochemical enterprises switching to PV-grade production, coupled with strong terminal demand and increased module production schedules, leading to increased PV-grade EVA production. According to SMM, some petrochemical enterprises plan to switch to PV-grade production in April, and PV-grade EVA production is expected to rise again in April.

PV Glass

In March, domestic PV glass production began to increase, up 15.18% MoM compared to February. Domestic PV glass production days increased by three days, mainly due to the rapid recovery of module production schedules on the demand side, and the continued positive trend in terminal demand. Glass supply was tight due to previous reductions in supply, leading to the resumption of previously idle furnaces and an increase in newly ignited furnaces, resulting in a rapid rise in glass production. Domestic PV glass production in April is expected to continue to increase.

DMC

In March, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 5.81% MoM and 3.84% YoY. Although production days in March increased compared to February, due to the joint production reduction and price support strategy of silicone monomer enterprises, the operating loads of almost all monomer enterprises decreased to varying degrees, leading to a decline in domestic DMC production.

For April, domestic silicone DMC production is expected to continue to decline as monomer enterprises will continue to halt production to support prices, with industry operating rates expected to fall to around 65%.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, in March 2025, China's magnesium ingot production increased by 0.5% MoM. The magnesium ingot market showed a decrease in daily average production but an increase in total production. The decrease in daily production was mainly due to the dual impact of oversupply and weak demand, causing magnesium ingot prices to continue falling over the past three months. When prices fell below the break-even line for smelting enterprises, many had to cut production or halt operations. However, due to three more working days in March compared to February, magnesium ingot production showed an upward trend.

In early March, influenced by continued declines in raw material prices and financial constraints of magnesium plants, magnesium prices were under pressure and fell beyond the acceptable range of magnesium ingot smelting enterprises. Some magnesium ingot smelting enterprises halted production for maintenance to avoid losses. Boosted by positive news, magnesium prices stopped falling and began to rebound, and by March 31, magnesium prices climbed to 16,900 yuan/mt, effectively restoring profit margins for magnesium ingot smelting enterprises. Previously halted magnesium ingot smelting enterprises are expected to gradually resume production, with magnesium ingot production in April 2025 expected to increase by 7% MoM.

Magnesium Alloy

In March, China's magnesium alloy production increased slightly MoM, with the operating rate of magnesium alloy enterprises rising slightly. The wide fluctuations in upstream magnesium ingot prices intensified the wait-and-see sentiment caused by raw material price volatility, and downstream die-casting plants and 3C manufacturers maintained just-in-time procurement, with stable market sentiment. However, as downstream enterprises gradually resumed operations, magnesium alloy production in April is expected to recover.

Magnesium Powder

SMM data shows that in March 2025, China's magnesium powder production increased slightly MoM. Magnesium powder production mainly increased due to more working days, with most magnesium powder enterprises operating normally, and downstream steel mills maintaining just-in-time procurement, keeping magnesium powder production stable. A senior executive of a large magnesium powder enterprise pointed out that due to the impact of domestic economic weakness, steel mill profits were thin, and downstream procurement was cautious, with overall demand remaining stable. SMM predicts that domestic magnesium powder production in April will maintain a slight increase.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in March 2025 decreased slightly MoM.

Due to the significant rise in the cost of raw materials such as sulphuric acid and titanium concentrate, leading enterprises have issued price adjustment notices, and the quotations of titanium dioxide enterprises are generally firm. In addition, some titanium dioxide enterprises that were previously in production cuts or shutdowns have also adjusted their operating rates.

In mid-March, titanium dioxide producers raised domestic prices by 300-500 yuan/mt, but given the current weak market demand, whether the subsequent prices can be implemented still needs to be tested by the market. Titanium dioxide prices will continue to adopt the mode of single-order negotiation, and the overall market performance is stable but slightly weak. SMM predicts that domestic titanium dioxide smelters may lower their operating rates in March to prevent inventory increases.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in March 2025 was flat MoM.

At the beginning of March, the supply and demand of the sponge titanium market gradually balanced. The downstream titanium material market was active, and the demand for titanium dioxide also rebounded, leading to a significant reduction in enterprise inventories and tight spot supply of sponge titanium. The price adjustment strategies of sponge titanium enterprises were gradually accepted by the downstream market and were consolidated by the pre-holiday stockpiling demand of downstream manufacturers. SMM analysis predicts that sponge titanium production will gradually rebound in April.

Light Rare Earth

In March 2025, domestic production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy increased slightly. Among them, the production of Pr-Nd oxide increased by about 0.06% MoM, with the increment mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, while the production of Pr-Nd alloy increased by about 1.9% MoM, with the increment mainly reflected in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia.

According to SMM survey data, the production of Pr-Nd oxide in March was relatively stable. Amid mixed upstream news, downstream purchasers were cautious in procurement, and the market inquiries for Pr-Nd oxide were poor. The quotations of ore suppliers were firm, and the production of separation plants was relatively stable.

As most metal plants have expansion plans this year and the price of Pr-Nd alloy was relatively stable last month, the operating rates of some metal plants continued to increase, and metal production continued to rise slightly MoM.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In March 2025, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides was basically flat MoM compared to February.

According to SMM surveys, most separation enterprises maintained the same operating rates as in February, resulting in no significant change in the production of rare earth oxides MoM. However, it is worth noting that the proportion of output from scrap recycling enterprises in the mainstream rare earth oxide production increased. Against the background of strict supervision on raw ore separation, this change may reflect the accelerated development trend of scrap recycling enterprises under current market conditions.

NdFeB

In March 2025, domestic production of NdFeB magnetic materials increased by about 14.7% YoY. According to SMM surveys, although the order-taking situation of magnetic material enterprises has not met expectations, it has improved compared to the same period last year. Currently, favorable policies in various end-use sectors have been frequently released, providing some support for the demand for NdFeB. However, the polarization phenomenon in the magnetic material market is becoming increasingly significant, with downstream orders gradually concentrating in major top-tier enterprises, leading to a certain degree of compression in orders for small and medium-sized enterprises. The overall market sentiment is cautious.

Looking ahead to April, with the joint promotion of a series of favorable policies, end-use demand may show a growth trend. However, it should be noted that as various industries gradually become saturated, the magnitude of demand growth may be limited. Overall, although the support from downstream demand may keep the production of the NdFeB market growing in April, the expected increase may be relatively mild.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in March 2025 decreased slightly MoM.

During March, the domestic molybdenum market demand remained weak, pushing molybdenum prices to decline continuously and ensuring that the profitability of molybdenum concentrate gradually worsened. This led to a reduction in the productivity of molybdenum mining enterprises. With the stabilization and rebound of molybdenum concentrate prices in April, molybdenum concentrate smelters may increase their operating rates. SMM analysis predicts that molybdenum concentrate production in April 2025 may increase slightly.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in March 2025 decreased slightly MoM.

Molybdenum mines maintained stable raw material shipment prices, but the tender prices of ferromolybdenum were difficult to increase due to the limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials by steel mills. Due to the game between sellers and buyers, the profits of the ferromolybdenum market have not yet turned positive, and some ferromolybdenum smelters chose to reduce their operating rates, leading to a slight MoM decrease in China's ferromolybdenum production in March. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand, ferromolybdenum production is expected to increase slightly MoM in April.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, China's APT production in March 2025 increased by about 3% MoM. During the month, the overall tungsten market was in a stalemate, and tight raw material supply led to raw material shortages in smelters, resulting in production growth falling short of expectations. In addition, downstream demand remained sluggish in March, and spot order transactions were once very scarce, forcing smelters to focus on the production of long-term contract orders, resulting in a relatively small overall production increase.

Looking ahead to April, with the gradual recovery of downstream market demand, just-in-time procurement is expected to increase, and APT production may show some growth. However, constrained by the overall limited demand, the magnitude of growth is expected to be relatively small.

Silver

In March 2025, silver production increased by 4.05% MoM. In March, the enthusiasm of precious metal bulls was high, and prices fluctuated upward. Smelters were highly motivated to produce, and some enterprises in Henan and Yunnan prioritized silver-containing raw material resources to maximize profits, leading to marginal fluctuations in silver production. On the other hand, the resumption of production at a smelter in north-west China that underwent maintenance in February brought the main increment. Enterprises with reduced production mainly underwent partial maintenance, with the operating rate of one smelter declining by about 30% due to partial maintenance, and production is expected to resume in April, while the maintenance resumption plan of another smelter was delayed.

Silver Nitrate

In March 2025, silver nitrate capacity increased by 21.4% MoM. On one hand, manufacturers that reduced production in February due to the Chinese New Year holiday resumed production in March. On the other hand, the newly built but not yet fully operational silver nitrate capacity in 2024 slightly increased production in March. In addition, some manufacturers stated that although production has not been significantly adjusted, the high volatility of silver prices has slightly affected downstream consumption orders, leading to a decline in sales and a slight accumulation of inventory.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) production in March 2025 increased by about 13.8% MoM. Specifically, among the 33 survey subjects assessed by SMM, 12 manufacturers were shut down, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous month; 17 manufacturers showed reduced production, an increase of 5 compared to the previous month; and 4 manufacturers had basically normal production, an increase of 1 compared to the previous month. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, antimony production rebounded in March after a decline in February. Many market participants believe this is a normal phenomenon, as many manufacturers resumed production from maintenance or temporary shutdowns in February, and production gradually returned to normal. However, some market participants stated that overall production is still at a low level, which is also due to the inability of many overseas ore sources to enter the domestic market, coupled with winter factors such as freezing of northern ore sources, leading to the suspension of mining. Domestic raw material supply remains relatively tight, and the reluctance to sell among antimony ore suppliers still exists. Many manufacturers stated that as the weather warms up, production in April will continue to show a recovery trend. Market participants expect that China's antimony ingot production in April 2025 is likely to continue to rise compared to March, with the possibility of remaining flat also existing, while the possibility of a slight decrease is small.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing the estimated production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) nationwide. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, SMM's survey of antimony ingot producers includes 33 manufacturers distributed across 8 provinces, with a total sample capacity of over 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM estimates, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate production in March 2025 increased by about 30.65% MoM. After several months of significant decline, a rebound occurred. Many market participants believe this is a normal phenomenon, as antimony prices have been rising since the end of February, and many sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers have also raised their prices. After achieving certain profits, their interest in signing orders with glass factories has increased. Many manufacturers stated that the production increase in March was related to taking more orders. In terms of other detailed data, among SMM's 11 survey subjects, 2 manufacturers were in shutdown or debugging status in March, while the production of 6-7 sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers mainly increased, with a few manufacturers showing a decline in production, leading to an overall increase in production. Market participants expect that the national sodium pyroantimonate production in April 2025 is unlikely to continue to increase significantly compared to March, with the possibility of remaining flat or continuing to increase slightly being greater.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing the estimated production of sodium pyroantimonate nationwide. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, SMM's survey of sodium pyroantimonate producers includes 11 manufacturers distributed across 5 provinces, with a total sample capacity of over 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM estimates, China's refined bismuth production in March 2025 increased by about 11.61% MoM compared to February. Bismuth production rebounded after several months of significant decline to a low point. However, market participants stated that due to the Chinese New Year holiday in February, many enterprises were shut down, leading to a decline in bismuth production to a low point. Therefore, the rebound in production in March is reasonable. From the perspective of manufacturers' production, some manufacturers are still in equipment maintenance, but many manufacturers have significantly resumed production, leading to an overall increase in domestic production. In terms of detailed data, among SMM's 24 survey subjects, 6 manufacturers showed a significant increase in production in March, while the production of the remaining manufacturers was either unchanged or slightly decreased. Many market participants expect that the production of national bismuth manufacturers will further stabilize in April, with the possibility of bismuth production remaining stable or continuing to increase slightly. However, considering that raw materials may still be tight, the magnitude of production increase will be limited.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the estimated production of refined bismuth nationwide. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the bismuth industry, SMM's survey of bismuth producers includes 24 manufacturers distributed across 8 provinces, with a total sample capacity of over 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In March 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production hit a new high, increasing by 23% MoM and 85% YoY. The main reason was that upstream lithium chemical plants had completed maintenance and resumed normal production in March, and with the continuous ramp-up of some production lines, domestic lithium carbonate output increased significantly.

By raw material type, the total production of lithium carbonate derived from spodumene increased 24% MoM in March. Most lithium chemical plants resumed normal production after the Chinese New Year maintenance, and the continuous ramp-up of some lower-cost production lines boosted the production of lithium carbonate derived from spodumene significantly. Although some small and medium-sized lithium chemical plants using lepidolite reduced production due to the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, the production of lithium carbonate derived from lepidolite still showed a significant increase, up 26% MoM, supported by the strong supplementation from top-tier lithium chemical plants. Although the temperature in salt lake regions remained relatively low, production increased compared to the previous low level, with an overall increase of 13% MoM. Lithium chemical recycling plants generally resumed production in March, but due to the low base, the MoM increase was relatively significant, at around 31%.

Although the persistent surplus of lithium carbonate is difficult to reverse, dragging down prices continuously, the current output structure of lithium carbonate is still dominated by integrated enterprises, with higher and more stable operating rates. Additionally, the continuous ramp-up of some relatively lower-cost production lines will supplement the production cuts at the marginal cost level. Overall, domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to remain stable at a high level in April, with fluctuations within 1%-2%.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM, the post-holiday resumption of lithium hydroxide production in March showed a significant increase, with a growth rate of over 25%, but a YoY decrease of over 5%.

From the raw material perspective, the smelting sector increased by over 25%, basically flat YoY. Most producers resumed normal production after the holiday, resulting in a considerable supply increase. However, due to the slower growth in downstream demand for lithium hydroxide and the generally high inventory levels among smelting enterprises, some flexible production lines leaned towards lithium carbonate production, leading to a slower-than-expected recovery in output, with a slight decrease compared to pre-holiday levels. Causticisation production increased by over 30% MoM, but decreased by nearly half YoY. Some enterprises saw a slight increase in production after the holiday, and the ramp-up of new production lines contributed to a noticeable MoM increase, but the overall operating rate remained low, limiting the contribution to the overall supply level.

Due to the high concentration of lithium hydroxide supply, the production of top-tier enterprises remained relatively stable recently, so the April production is expected to be basically flat with March, with a YoY decrease of nearly 30%.

Cobalt Sulphate

In March 2025, the production of cobalt sulphate increased by 54% MoM. This was mainly due to the rapid price increase driven by the DRC event, which improved the profitability of cobalt sulphate products, coupled with the release of new capacity, leading to a significant MoM increase in output. In April, most enterprises maintained high output levels, and new capacities continued to ramp up. Although some enterprises experienced slight production cuts due to insufficient raw material reserves, the overall trend remained upward, with an expected MoM increase of 3% in April.

Co3O4

In March 2025, the production of Co3O4 achieved slight growth both MoM and YoY. This growth was mainly attributed to the low inventory levels of downstream LCO manufacturers, who urgently needed to procure, thus driving stable production among Co3O4 enterprises. Additionally, news of cobalt exports raised concerns about price increases among LCO enterprises, leading to some procurement demand in advance, further boosting the activity in the Co3O4 market and driving increased production schedules for some enterprises. In April 2025, driven by downstream demand, Co3O4 enterprises are expected to receive more orders, continuing to achieve MoM and YoY growth.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In March 2025, China's ternary cathode precursor production increased by 19.75% MoM but decreased by 10.57% YoY. In terms of series proportion, the 5-series ternary cathode precursor accounted for 20%, the 6-series for 37%, and the 8-series for 33%, with a slight increase in the proportion of 6-series precursors. On the supply side, the recovery from the holiday and shutdown impacts in February, along with more natural days in March, brought the overall market supply back to pre-holiday levels. On the demand side, the sharp rise in raw material prices in March prompted some ternary material manufacturers to stockpile in anticipation of further price increases, driving a short-term increase in precursor orders. However, in the long term, the uncertainty of raw material price fluctuations and the continuous squeeze from LFP on the ternary market have kept the overall demand for ternary precursors weak. In April, ternary precursor production is expected to increase by 3.49% MoM.

Ternary Cathode Material

In March 2025, ternary cathode material production increased by 19.99% MoM but decreased by 7.59% YoY. The overall industry operating rate in the month was 39%, up from February. In terms of series proportion, the 5-series ternary cathode material accounted for 22%, the 6-series for 29%, and the 8-series for 43%, with no significant change in the overall proportion structure. On the supply side, the recovery from the holiday and shutdown impacts in February, along with more calendar days in March, led to an increase in overall production schedules. On the demand side, the significant rise in raw material prices in March prompted some battery cell manufacturers to stockpile in anticipation of further price increases, driving overall market demand growth. Additionally, demand from some overseas battery cell manufacturers rebounded in March, boosting domestic orders. Looking ahead to April, market demand is expected to continue growing, but the growth rate may slow down, with ternary cathode material production expected to increase by 7.22% MoM.

Iron Phosphate

In March, domestic iron phosphate production increased by 10% MoM and surged by 81% YoY. On the supply side, most iron phosphate enterprises increased their production schedules compared to February, leading to a significant supply increase. Some enterprises had ample orders, operating at full capacity. Additionally, new entrants in the iron phosphate market are gradually ramping up capacity, and future production is expected to continue rising.

On the demand side, the demand for LFP in the market began to grow steadily in March. However, some enterprises saw their orders cut by battery cell manufacturers due to price and project matching issues, leading to a decrease in orders. At the same time, some enterprises with significant product and price advantages saw a notable increase in orders, especially those requiring external procurement of iron phosphate, driving overall demand growth.

On the cost side, March was the spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation season, and the price of industrial-grade MAP, an important raw material for ammonium-based iron phosphate production, rose sharply, significantly increasing the production cost of ammonium-based iron phosphate, prompting enterprises to consider price hikes in April.

In April, as the lithium battery market gradually enters the peak season, the production schedules of iron phosphate enterprises are expected to continue increasing, with production likely to grow by 5% MoM and 68% YoY.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)

In March, China's LFP production increased by 13.4% MoM and about 89% YoY, with the industry operating rate rising to 57%. On the supply side, March is traditionally a peak season for the industry, so LFP production rebounded significantly, but the growth rate fell short of expectations. In March, there was a slight adjustment in the supply structure. As the price of iron phosphate generally rose, top-tier LFP material manufacturers showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. However, downstream battery cell enterprises, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency, shifted some orders from top-tier to mid-tier enterprises, creating a stark contrast with the supply structure in February. On the demand side, the demand from the power terminal performed well in March, with downstream battery cell manufacturers showing a significant increase in production, but the overall procurement volume slightly declined, leading to a reduction in LFP material inventory at battery cell manufacturers. This indicates that downstream enterprises, while experiencing demand growth, are also optimizing inventory and cost control to respond to market changes.

Looking ahead to April, the growth rate of downstream demand is expected to slow down, with no significant increase in LFP production. Additionally, LFP material manufacturers generally expect higher processing fees in Q2, so they will engage in a new round of price negotiations with downstream battery cell manufacturers.

Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO)

In March 2025, domestic LCO production increased by 14% MoM, mainly due to the accelerated resumption of the industry chain after the Chinese New Year holiday, with top-tier enterprises driving supply recovery. The industry concentration remained high, with CR5 at 85%, and top-tier enterprises dominated the market with long-term raw material contracts and integrated cost advantages. On the raw material side, the price of Co3O4 surged due to the DRC's suspension of cobalt ore exports, leading to a significant price increase for LCO in March. On the demand side, March is the traditional period for 3C new product preparation, with demand for smartphones, tablets, and other terminals rebounding MoM, driving an increase in procurement orders from battery cell manufacturers. In April, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down, with LCO production likely to increase by 3% MoM.

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO)

In March 2025, LMO production increased MoM, with a significant YoY growth. The production increase in March was mainly due to some LMO enterprises ending their maintenance shutdowns and resuming normal production, leading to an increase in market supply. Additionally, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed weak stockpiling intentions, resulting in generally low LMO inventory, which increased the just-in-time procurement demand for LMO in the market, driving up the operating rate of LMO enterprises.

Looking ahead to April 2025, with the recovery of downstream demand, the market's stockpiling demand for LMO materials is expected to increase, boosting market activity and inquiry volume, which will positively drive LMO production. Therefore, LMO production is expected to continue a slight MoM increase in April, with the YoY growth rate remaining stable.

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey is conducted by professional analysts through phone calls, field surveys, and other methods, regularly tracking monthly production of Chinese metal producers and issuing China's metal production reports.

During the survey process, the basic coverage ratio of samples is ensured and continuously expanded. At the same time, factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring the representativeness of each sub-item data.

At the end of each month, the reports are released through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account, and mobile site (m.smm.cn).