SMM Exclusive: Overview Of China Metal Production In January 2025 And Forecast For February

SMM's monthly metal production data is scheduled for release at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and provide clarity for industry chain participants and investors to better grasp the future trends of the non-ferrous market.
Overview of Metal Production in January 2025
Copper Cathode
In January, SMM's China copper cathode production decreased by 81,700 mt MoM, a decline of 7.46%, up 4.54% YoY, and exceeded expectations by 6,500 mt.
January copper cathode production dropped significantly as expected, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. Some smelters' statistical period for January was from January 1 to January 25, leading to a shorter statistical duration and a noticeable production decline; 2. Two smelters underwent maintenance in January, contributing to the production decrease; 3. Many smelters experienced varying degrees of production decline due to tight copper concentrate and blister copper supply (as of January 24, SMM's imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was $1.76/mt, and SMM's blister copper RCs in south China (weekly) were 800 yuan/mt).
In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in January was 80.22%, down 7.50 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 83.16%, down 9.37 percentage points MoM; medium-sized smelters' operating rate was 75.13%, down 3.6 percentage points MoM; and small smelters' operating rate was 67.23%, down 2.63 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 86%, down 6.1 percentage points MoM, while smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode) had an operating rate of 68.7%, down 9 percentage points MoM.
In February, no smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, and smelters that underwent maintenance in January are expected to resume normal production, leading to increased output. Additionally, some smelters' statistical periods will return to normal, increasing the statistical duration and production. However, due to tight copper scrap supply, the production of copper cathode from copper scrap smelters is expected to continue declining, with a potential downward trend in the future. Lastly, attention should be paid to whether copper cathode producers using copper concentrates will cut production due to smelting losses. It is reported that based on spot order prices for copper concentrates, losses are approximately 1,600 yuan/mt, and based on long-term contracts, losses are around 800 yuan/mt.
According to SMM's production schedule data, February domestic copper cathode production is expected to increase by 41,600 mt MoM, up 4.1%, and increase by 105,100 mt YoY, up 11.06%. Cumulative production for January-February is expected to increase by 149,100 mt YoY, up 7.77%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in February is expected to be 83.53%, up 3.31 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters is expected to be 87.40%, up 4.24 percentage points MoM; medium-sized smelters' operating rate is expected to be 76.44%, up 1.31 percentage points MoM; and small smelters' operating rate is expected to be 67.84%, up 0.61 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates is expected to be 90.1%, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, while smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anode) are expected to have an operating rate of 68.6%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM, marking a decline for two consecutive months.
Aluminum
According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in January 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.8% YoY but decreased by 0.3% MoM. Domestic aluminum operating capacity remained largely stable MoM, with only a few aluminum smelters in Shanxi reporting production cuts of 20,000 mt/year, while previously reduced capacity showed no signs of resumption. During the month, the proportion of casting ingots increased in many regions, leading to a 2.9 percentage point MoM decline and a 1.0 percentage point YoY decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in December increased by 7.3% YoY to approximately 1.13 million mt.
Capacity Changes: By the end of January, SMM statistics showed that China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.71 million mt, with operating capacity around 43.51 million mt. The industry's operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points MoM but increased by 2.29 percentage points YoY to 95.2%. Currently, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remains largely stable, with only a few aluminum smelters in Shanxi reducing production by 20,000 mt/year due to technological transformation. The previously reduced capacity in Sichuan and Chongqing due to losses in December has no production resumption plans. SMM will continue to monitor the situation.
Production Forecast: In February 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain stable, with no production resumption plans for previously reduced capacity. By the end of February, annualized domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at 43.51 million mt/year. February is still within the Chinese New Year holiday period, leading to weaker downstream demand, with some billet and alloy producers reducing production. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to decrease further to around 68% in February. Further attention is needed on changes in aluminum capacity across regions and the operating conditions of downstream sectors such as aluminum billets.
Alumina
According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in January 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.63% MoM and 12.85% YoY. As of January 24, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was approximately 104.02 million mt, with operating capacity increasing by 1.43% MoM, and the operating rate was 86.69%. During the month, a new production line at an alumina refinery in Shandong began operations, with production expected by late January or early February. Other regions mostly maintained stable operations. Additionally, alumina supply and demand shifted to a surplus during the month, leading to a rapid pullback in prices. Currently, there are no large-scale production cut expectations for alumina, and the spot market is expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, with prices likely to continue their downward trend.
Next Month's Forecast: SMM has learned that domestic alumina refineries currently have no large-scale maintenance plans. Coupled with increased ore supply as Guinea's rainy season ends, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to reach 90.43 million mt/year in February. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. For imported ore, as of January 17, domestic port bauxite weekly arrivals totaled 2.69 million mt, down 1.54 million mt from the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.88 million mt, up 1.55 million mt from the previous week, while Australia's main ports shipped 900,000 mt, up 40,000 mt from the previous week. This indicates that the impact of the rainy season has eased, and domestic bauxite arrivals have rebounded, supporting the high operating capacity of alumina. SMM will continue to monitor the pace of new and resumed alumina capacity releases.
Overseas Aluminum
According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in January 2025 increased by 1.4% YoY, with a monthly average operating rate of 88.3%, up 0.4% MoM and 0.3% YoY. The increase in aluminum production mainly came from the resumption progress of various aluminum smelters. However, due to rising energy costs in winter, the resumption progress of three aluminum smelters under Germany's Trimet Group slowed, with the operating rate remaining flat MoM. In South America, Alcoa's Alumar aluminum smelter resumed production steadily, with the operating rate recovering to 78%.
Additionally, the expansion project of Indonesia's Hua Chin aluminum smelter made significant progress. Its second-phase 250,000 mt capacity, which was suspended in November 2024 due to cost issues, has now been fully commissioned, bringing the smelter's total existing capacity to 480,000 mt. Production is expected to increase steadily. Meanwhile, South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique faced temporary production declines of about 3% due to transportation disruptions caused by domestic unrest. Although emergency measures alleviated raw material inventory issues, South32 has withdrawn its annual production guidance for Mozal due to uncertainties.
Looking ahead to February, SMM expects overseas aluminum production to decrease by 1.7% YoY due to fewer days in February, but the monthly average operating rate is expected to rise to 88.5%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.7% YoY.
Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina
According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in January 2025 increased by 0.7% YoY, with an average operating rate of 82.7%, up 1% MoM and 0.3% YoY. Indonesia's Mempawah alumina refinery, which began trial operations in September 2024, is expected to enter commercial production by the end of January, with production likely to increase steadily. Additionally, Vietnam's Vinacomin (TKV) has set its 2025 production targets, with Lam Dong Aluminum Company planning to produce 185,000 mt of bauxite and sell 175,000 mt in Q1, while Dak Nong Aluminum Company plans to produce 1.3 million mt of alumina for the year. In 2024, TKV achieved alumina production of 1.41 million mt and sales of 1.39 million mt, exceeding its annual target, with annual profits reaching VND 623 billion, up 42% YoY.
Looking ahead to February, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to decrease by 2.3% YoY, but the average operating rate is expected to rise to 82.9%, up 0.2% MoM.
Primary Lead
In January 2025, China's primary lead production declined further, down 11.4% MoM and 1.13% YoY.
It is understood that primary lead smelters' production cuts in January exceeded the previous report's forecast, mainly due to unexpected maintenance or equipment failures at some medium and large enterprises. Specifically, smelters in Jiangxi, Yunnan, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia underwent maintenance, while smelters in Guangdong extended their maintenance periods, and smelters in Qinghai experienced unexpected equipment failures, resulting in significant production reductions. Additionally, from December to January, lead prices gradually shifted downward, with SHFE lead falling below the 17,000 yuan/mt mark at the end of December and remaining below this level in January. Narrowing smelter profits, combined with weaker-than-expected pre-holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, led some smelters to proactively cut production to reduce the risk of lead ingot inventory buildup during the Chinese New Year.
Looking ahead to February, with only 28 days (calendar month), the shortest month of the year, lead smelters will naturally reduce production due to fewer production days. Additionally, maintenance at smelters in Yunnan, Hunan, and Henan will continue into February, and new maintenance plans are expected, dragging down primary lead production further, with an estimated decline of around 3%.
Secondary Lead
In January 2025, secondary crude lead production declined as expected, down 9.23% MoM and 8.57% YoY, while secondary refined lead production decreased by 13.36% MoM and 15.12% YoY. Frequent heavy pollution weather in December led secondary lead smelters to cooperate with environmental protection-related controls, resulting in production cuts or suspensions and tightening supply.
In January, the Chinese New Year atmosphere gradually intensified, with downstream battery producers starting their holiday breaks earlier. Pre-holiday stockpiling demand was weaker than in previous years, making lead ingot transactions difficult. Under such circumstances, secondary lead smelters were more inclined to reduce or suspend production during the holiday period, with some smelters postponing their resumption plans to after the Lantern Festival. It is understood that fewer secondary lead smelters will resume production before the Lantern Festival compared to after it. Additionally, the pace of battery scrap recyclers' post-holiday resumption will affect secondary lead smelters' raw material restocking speed. If battery scrap supply remains tight after the holiday, it will also impact the recovery of secondary lead production. Overall, the probability of a significant increase in secondary lead production in February is low, with major growth likely to occur in March.
Refined Zinc
In January 2025, SMM's China refined zinc production increased by 1% MoM but decreased by nearly 8% YoY, falling short of expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in January decreased by over 5,000 mt MoM. Entering January, domestic smelters' production growth was below expectations, mainly due to unexpected maintenance and holiday breaks at enterprises in Hunan, Qinghai, Guangxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. However, smelters in Hunan, Guangdong, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan contributed some production increases. Overall, production increased slightly.
SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in February 2025 to decrease by more than 8% MoM. The cumulative production from January to February 2025 is expected to decline by approximately 6% YoY. Overall, the production decline in February is mainly attributed to a reduction of three production days and holiday shutdowns at some smelters. Additionally, production cuts were partially contributed by suspensions and maintenance in Gansu and Yunnan, while resumption and recovery from maintenance in Hunan, Guangxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang provided some production increases.
Refined Tin
According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production in January 2025 decreased by 4.62% MoM but increased slightly by 0.65% YoY. A tightening supply of tin ore and scrap has led to a downward trend in domestic tin ingot production this month.
In Yunnan, the continued low volume of tin ore imports from Myanmar, coupled with a decline in imports from other countries, has posed severe challenges to raw material supply for local smelters. Under these circumstances, most smelters chose to maintain the status quo or moderately reduce production. If Myanmar's tin ore mining ban remains unchanged, we expect Yunnan's smelter production to continue declining. Additionally, the recent continuous drop in tin concentrate TC has fallen below the cost line for some smelters, forcing a few to halt production for maintenance during the Chinese New Year break.
Meanwhile, in Jiangxi, smelter production also generally declined in January. With most downstream and end-user enterprises halting operations for the holiday, scrap supply experienced seasonal shortages, prompting most smelters in Jiangxi to enter the Chinese New Year break, with production expected to resume around the Lantern Festival. In Inner Mongolia, smelting activities remained relatively stable. However, in Anhui and other regions, challenges in raw material procurement and the holiday impact have disrupted smelter production, posing significant challenges to maintaining future output.
Considering these factors, we predict that national tin ingot production may further decline in February. Given the significant uncertainties surrounding tin ore imports from Myanmar's Wa State and the increasingly severe raw material supply issues for smelters, we advise market participants to remain highly vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations.
Refined Nickel
In January 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased by 4.9% MoM but increased by 18.7% YoY. The industry's operating rate stood at 69%, down from the previous month, primarily due to the Chinese New Year holiday, during which some enterprises suspended operations, leading to reduced operating rates.
In January, nickel prices showed a fluctuating trend. Indonesian nickel ore quota information repeatedly disrupted nickel prices. However, with the latest APNI announcement that the approved 2025 nickel ore mining quotas, known as RKAB, totals 298.49 million wmt, nickel ore supply is expected to remain loose, exerting downward pressure on nickel prices. On the macro side, tariff policy uncertainties arose as Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, dampening market sentiment. Under the influence of multiple factors, nickel prices this month first rose and then fell.
In terms of refined nickel supply and demand, the Chinese New Year holiday led most downstream enterprises to complete stockpiling in advance, resulting in a mediocre spot market. Domestic demand was generally weak in January. On the supply side, although some enterprises reduced production, overall supply remained high. Regarding inventory, SMM's six-region inventory totaled 41,273 mt, with the fundamental supply surplus unchanged.
In February, the industry remains in its traditional off-season due to the holiday. Under the supply surplus, February production is expected to decrease by 0.4% MoM but increase by 22% YoY.
Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)
In January 2025, China's NPI production in physical content decreased by approximately 10.65% MoM, while metal content decreased by about 12.66% MoM. Both physical and metal content production declined due to weak high-grade NPI prices, coupled with firm nickel ore prices after the Philippines entered the rainy season, which expanded smelter losses and led some to reduce production loads. Additionally, environmental protection issues in north China during winter caused a northern smelter to enter maintenance, impacting high-grade NPI supply. Low-grade NPI production also declined due to negative feedback from downstream 200-series stainless steel, firm low-grade nickel ore prices, and reduced production loads at some integrated stainless steel mills. Furthermore, smelters producing low-grade NPI reduced production days as the Chinese New Year approached, resulting in low output.
In February 2025, China's NPI production in physical content is expected to decrease by about 2.17% MoM, while metal content is expected to increase by approximately 3.16% MoM. According to an SMM survey, after the Chinese New Year break, high-grade NPI smelters nationwide are expected to resume normal production, gradually recovering output. The decline in physical content production in February is mainly attributed to low-grade NPI, as 200-series stainless steel consumption remains in recovery post-holiday. With firm low-grade nickel ore prices and losses, some enterprises are expected to increase scrap usage and supplement with nickel-chromium alloys, leading to a slight overall increase in NPI production.
Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron
In January 2025, Indonesia's NPI metal content increased by approximately 0.99% MoM and 17.97% YoY. As Indonesian nickel mines had not yet resumed full production in early 2025, some major production areas with sufficient pre-stocked nickel ore saw grade improvements, boosting total metal content. However, in some regions, limited high-grade nickel ore resources for domestic trade led to grade declines, reducing metal content. Additionally, new capacity on Obi Island began to ramp up, slightly increasing production. Despite declining high-grade NPI prices, Indonesian smelters' cost lines eased, and production remained stable due to profit-driven operations. Meanwhile, high-grade nickel matte profits recovered with rising LME nickel prices, but the competition between high-grade nickel matte and high-grade NPI production was weak, limiting the impact on high-grade NPI supply. As a result, Indonesia's NPI production saw a slight MoM increase in January.
In February 2025, due to the Chinese New Year holiday and fewer production days, Indonesia's NPI metal content is expected to decrease by about 3.00% MoM but increase by 20.21% YoY. According to an SMM survey, production adjustments in a major Indonesian production area due to project management optimization are expected to temporarily reduce output. However, further capacity ramp-ups on Obi Island are expected to drive production increases, limiting the overall decline in metal content.
Nickel Sulphate
According to SMM data, China's nickel sulphate production in January 2025 is estimated at approximately 25,900 mt in metal content and 119,500 mt in physical content, down about 7.70% MoM and 25.38% YoY. On the demand side, some major precursor enterprises halted production for maintenance, while others reduced production due to the Chinese New Year holiday and weak downstream demand, leading to overall weaker demand. On the supply side, some nickel salt smelters also halted production for maintenance, while others reduced production due to losses. Considering weak demand and the holiday, February nickel sulphate production is expected to decrease to 25,900 mt in metal content and 117,900 mt in physical content, down about 1.33% MoM but up approximately 1.13% YoY.
Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate
In January 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production declined both MoM and YoY. The main reasons were weak demand from downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises, with many only fulfilling long-term contracts and minimal spot orders. Additionally, some manganese salt plants halted production for maintenance during the Chinese New Year holiday, further reducing overall output. By February 2025, as some manganese salt plants resume normal production, output is expected to increase slightly MoM.
Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD)
In January 2025, EMD production saw a slight MoM decline. The main reasons were the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, equipment adjustments at some enterprises, and reduced production schedules. Additionally, weak demand in the LMO market significantly affected EMD production schedules, while the primary battery market remained in its off-season, with stable demand providing no significant boost. In February 2025, with slow post-holiday resumption and fewer calendar days, EMD production is expected to continue its slight downward trend.
Mn3O4
In January 2025, Mn3O4 production declined slightly MoM. The main reasons were pre-holiday production cuts for destocking and reduced production schedules. Weak demand in the LMO market also led to lower procurement volumes for raw materials, impacting Mn3O4 production plans. Additionally, the oversupply in the electronic-grade market remained unresolved in the short term, prompting cautious production. By February 2025, with slow post-holiday resumption and fewer calendar days, Mn3O4 production is expected to continue its slight MoM decline.
High-Carbon Ferrochrome
According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in January 2025 continued to decline, down 6.15% MoM and 7.12% YoY. In Inner Mongolia, production decreased by 0.8% MoM. In January, Tsingshan Group's tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome fell below 7,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Ferrochrome producers faced high production costs due to previously purchased expensive raw materials, leading to widespread losses. Additionally, stainless steel production schedules were expected to decrease significantly in January, exacerbating the supply surplus and bearish market sentiment. Some producers halted spot market supply, focusing only on long-term contracts, further reducing overall production.
Looking ahead to February 2025, stainless steel production schedules are expected to increase, boosting ferrochrome demand. Pre-holiday stockpiling has also driven active transactions in the ferrochrome spot market, with prices rising. Most major stainless steel mills are expected to maintain stable tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome, encouraging producers to sustain production. However, due to pre-holiday production halts and fewer calendar days in February, ferrochrome production may decrease slightly.
Stainless Steel
According to SMM survey data, China's total stainless steel production in January 2025 decreased by approximately 9.32% MoM but increased by about 3.87% YoY. Specifically, 200-series stainless steel production decreased by approximately 12.38% MoM, 300-series by about 9.33%, and 400-series by around 4.06%. The off-season deepened in January, especially approaching the Chinese New Year, with overall declines in downstream operating rates and stainless steel mill orders.
For the 200-series, high prices of raw materials such as high-silicon SiMn alloy and EMM in late January led to production cuts across most regions except for slight increases in south China, resulting in a significant reduction in 200-series output.
In the 300-series, NPI prices rebounded in January, while finished product prices weakened. Large integrated mills with cost advantages and sufficient funds maintained high operating rates, while small and medium-sized non-integrated mills generally reduced production. A mill in east China shifted part of its capacity to the 400-series, reducing 300-series output.
For the 400-series, despite high production and operating rates at large mills in east and south China, some small private mills reduced production. For instance, a small mill in south China halted production due to finished product prices, reducing 400-series output by 10,000 mt, resulting in a slight downward trend overall.
Looking ahead to February, upstream stainless steel supply is expected to remain high, with the market supply and demand still weak. Prices of raw materials such as NPI, high-carbon ferrochrome, and stainless steel scrap are likely to remain stable. Some stainless steel mills may complete maintenance and resume production after the Chinese New Year. Overall, 200-series production is expected to increase by 2.71% MoM in February; 300-series production is expected to decrease again by 2.36% MoM due to high arrivals before the holiday and relatively small production cuts by steel mills before the holiday; while 400-series production is expected to decrease by approximately 4.42% MoM due to high raw material prices and a relatively short operating period, leading to slow capacity recovery.
EMM
According to SMM data, China's EMM production in January 2025 decreased by over 10% MoM but increased by approximately 3% YoY. The main reasons for the production decline in January were weak purchasing enthusiasm from downstream steel mills before the Chinese New Year, limited incremental demand for EMM, and strong willingness among EMM plants to cut production. Production in all regions saw slight declines. Specifically, in Guizhou, EMM plants reduced or halted production due to tight ore supply and equipment maintenance. In Hunan, rising electricity prices led to higher production costs, prompting most EMM plants to cease production. Additionally, some EMM plants planned furnace maintenance during the Chinese New Year, further reducing overall EMM supply.
In February, the overall operating rate of manganese plants is expected to remain at 70% of capacity. Some EMM plants plan equipment maintenance around the Chinese New Year, and production is expected to remain reduced. Furthermore, with February having fewer calendar days, the overall supply in the manganese market is expected to continue decreasing. Based on production schedule surveys of manganese plants, February's supply is expected to decline MoM.
SiMn Alloy
According to SMM data, China's total SiMn alloy production in January 2025 decreased by approximately 5% MoM and over 10% YoY. The main reason for the decline in January was production cuts across both northern and southern SiMn plants. Specifically, Inner Mongolia maintained a high operating rate, with limited actual production release despite some new capacity additions. In Ningxia, equipment maintenance at certain plants led to reduced production. Additionally, in south China, tight manganese ore supply at southern ports and rising raw material prices kept SiMn production costs high. Due to production resistance, most previously idled SiMn plants had no production resumption plans. In Guangxi, although some small SiMn plants resumed production, the incremental output was limited. Overall, the reduction in SiMn production outweighed the increase, resulting in a net decline in January's total SiMn production nationwide.
In February, some SiMn plants are expected to conduct maintenance around the Chinese New Year, with production expected to decrease slightly. Additionally, with February having fewer calendar days, SiMn production is expected to shrink further, with the nationwide total SiMn production showing a decline in February.
Silicon Metal
According to SMM market communication, China's silicon metal production in January 2025 decreased by 8.3% MoM and 12.2% YoY. The MoM decline was mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Qinghai. In Xinjiang, production cuts by leading silicon enterprises drove the reduction. In Yunnan and Sichuan, high costs during the dry season and losses led to production cuts, leaving only a few furnaces in operation in Sichuan and a few silicon enterprises in Yunnan. In Inner Mongolia and other regions, monthly production increased slightly due to the release of new capacity.
In February, operating rates among silicon enterprises of different scales are expected to diverge further. Some leading enterprises in Xinjiang began resuming a small portion of capacity in late January, while small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to show weaker operating rates. Considering February has three fewer production days than January, overall silicon metal production is expected to decline to around 280,000 mt.
Polysilicon
In January, China's actual polysilicon production continued to decrease compared to December, with a decline of approximately 3%. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. In Sichuan, the reduction was primarily due to electricity price increases, while in the other two regions, it was mainly driven by self-initiated actions by enterprises. Additionally, a base in Inner Mongolia contributed some incremental output due to ramping up production. In February, due to fewer calendar days and the impact of certain bases, polysilicon production is expected to decline slightly again.
PV Module
According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in January 2025 decreased by approximately 15% MoM, with an industry operating rate of around 37.6%. The main reduction came from domestic bases of Chinese enterprises. The primary reason for the decline in January was fewer production days due to the holiday period, which affected the planned production of various companies. Leading enterprises experienced significant production cuts in January, while second- and third-tier enterprises, which had already been operating at low rates for a long time, saw limited reductions. Module companies adjusted their production plans based on their own orders and future order visibility. Most companies focused on selling inventory due to the off-season and pressure from losses, with extended holiday periods. Many small factories decided on holiday durations ranging from half a month to a month, resuming production only when orders were available. In February, China's PV module production is expected to decrease slightly, down 3.9% MoM, with an industry operating rate of around 36.1%. Both domestic and overseas bases of Chinese enterprises are expected to see reductions. Many orders scheduled for delivery before the holiday were postponed to after the holiday for unified shipment, leading to changes in the actual holiday durations of enterprises in February. Due to expectations of a rush for installations in the distributed market, leading enterprises have relatively good order visibility for Q1. Leading module enterprises are expected to have shorter holiday durations in February compared to January, with production volumes remaining stable or slightly increasing. Small factories show significant differences in holiday durations, with most focusing on tolling business due to unclear order visibility.
Solar Cell
In January, solar cell production decreased by 12.38% MoM, with an overall operating rate of 52.03%. Leading solar cell manufacturers reduced production by approximately 50%, mainly due to voluntary production cuts under the industry's self-discipline agreement. Most first- and second-tier specialized solar cell manufacturers maintained stable operating rates. The Chinese New Year holiday affected the operating rates of integrated module manufacturers' solar cell bases, which began taking holidays in mid-to-late January, dragging down the overall operating rate. By size, reductions were more pronounced for 210RN and customized solar cells from integrated enterprises, while 183N cells saw minor reductions. By technology type, both Topcon and HJT cells experienced production cuts, while BC cells maintained stable operating rates. In February, solar cell production is expected to decline further by 14.46%, mainly due to fewer calendar days in February.
PV Film
In January, the total production schedule of the PV film industry decreased by 16% MoM. This trend was primarily attributed to reduced production schedules in the PV module industry. From the perspective of individual enterprises, the situation varied: some enterprises increased their production schedules, while others reduced them. Enterprises that increased production schedules often did so to actively reduce orders amid persistently low film prices and significant operational pressure, seeking a foothold in the competitive market. Leading enterprises, with strong cost control capabilities, maintained relatively competitive prices, enabling them to actively take orders and sustain relatively stable production rhythms.
PV-Grade EVA
In January, PV-grade EVA production reached 95,500 mt, down 11.6% MoM. The decline was due to some enterprises switching to LDPE production and others planning maintenance for 5–7 days or experiencing unexpected equipment failures. These factors led to PV-grade EVA production falling short of expectations. With the Chinese New Year approaching, overseas EVA imports decreased, resulting in tight spot supply in the market.
PV Glass
In January, domestic PV glass monthly production continued to decline, with a larger reduction of 4.91% MoM compared to December. In January, domestic PV glass experienced a total of 4,450 mt/day of furnace cold repairs and capacity closures, with an additional 900 mt/day of furnace cold repairs planned, leading to reduced PV glass production. With the Chinese New Year approaching, domestic module demand is expected to weaken, and with reduced PV glass demand, supply is also expected to decrease. February's glass production is expected to decline further.
DMC
In January, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 0.13% MoM but increased by 18.26% YoY. The supply side saw mixed changes in operating rates. In central China, pre-holiday operating loads dropped to around 20%, while new capacity loads in east China continued to increase. Additionally, domestic downstream demand slightly increased before the holiday. To compete for orders, monomer enterprises limited load reductions, keeping January's silicone DMC production at a high level. In February, with fewer production days and some monomer enterprises planning post-holiday load reductions, domestic silicone DMC production is expected to decline.
Magnesium Ingot
According to SMM data, China's magnesium ingot production in January 2025 decreased by 4.9% MoM. The production decline was mainly due to a combination of supply surplus and weak demand, which caused magnesium ingot prices to continuously decline over the past three months. When prices fell below the break-even point for smelters, enterprises were forced to cut or halt production.
Magnesium ingot in-plant inventory remained high, with magnesium plants selling at market prices. Magnesium prices continued to decline, and poorly managed magnesium ingot smelters gradually reduced or halted production. In November, magnesium ingot production decreased by 1.0% MoM, with in-plant inventory remaining basically flat compared to the previous month, achieving limited destocking. In December, earlier production cuts failed to effectively stop the price decline, and inventory pressure on magnesium plants remained unresolved. The losses faced by magnesium ingot smelters worsened, leading to self-initiated reductions in operating rates. December's magnesium ingot production decreased by 4.9% MoM.
In January, as stockpiling activities progressed, the magnesium market saw a coexistence of tight spot supply from magnesium ingot producers and high inventory levels in stockpiling warehouses. Magnesium prices stabilized at low levels, with narrower % changes. However, due to the current low magnesium prices and severe losses for magnesium plants, occasional production cut announcements were reported. February's magnesium ingot production is expected to decrease by 5.6% MoM.
Magnesium Alloy
According to SMM data, China's magnesium alloy production in January 2025 was basically flat MoM. This month, magnesium alloy enterprises maintained stable operating rates overall. Upstream magnesium ingot prices stabilized, alleviating the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment caused by raw material price fluctuations. Additionally, downstream die-casting and 3C manufacturers stockpiled as needed before the holiday, stabilizing market sentiment. However, as die-casting plants took earlier holidays compared to previous years, some magnesium alloy plants saw a decline in orders, leading them to follow end-users in taking early holidays and slightly reducing operating rates.
With the Chinese New Year approaching, as downstream die-casting and 3C manufacturers gradually shut down, some magnesium alloy enterprises may choose to reduce operating rates to avoid inventory buildup due to stagnant demand. SMM expects February's magnesium alloy production to decrease slightly.
Magnesium Powder
According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in January 2025 was basically flat MoM. This month, magnesium powder enterprises showed mixed production trends, with most maintaining normal production. Downstream steel mills stockpiled as needed before the holiday, keeping magnesium powder production stable.
A representative from a large magnesium powder enterprise noted that due to the weak domestic economy, steel mill profits were thin, and downstream purchasing attitudes remained cautious, with demand overall remaining stable. SMM predicts that February's domestic magnesium powder production will decrease slightly due to fewer working days.
Titanium Dioxide
According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in January 2025 decreased slightly MoM.
In early January, rising raw material costs for sulphuric acid and titanium concentrate led leading enterprises to maintain stable policy prices, with most titanium dioxide enterprises also holding firm on their quotations. Additionally, nearly 40% of enterprises were in a state of production cuts or shutdowns, and existing producers were generally not operating at full capacity. The market widely expected overseas markets to stockpile before the holiday.
As overseas markets entered the pre-holiday stockpiling period, export markets helped mitigate the impact of declining domestic demand. Some titanium dioxide manufacturers faced tight supply and issued price adjustment notices. By the end of the month, titanium dioxide manufacturers raised domestic prices by 300-500 yuan/mt. However, given the currently subdued market demand, whether these price increases will materialize remains to be seen. Titanium dioxide prices are expected to continue being negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The market overall showed a stable yet slightly weak trend. SMM predicts that February's domestic titanium dioxide production will remain stable.
Sponge Titanium
According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in January 2025 remained flat MoM. At the beginning of January, the supply-demand imbalance in the sponge titanium market gradually eased. The downstream titanium material market saw active transactions driven by pre-holiday stockpiling, while demand in the titanium dioxide market improved, leading to a gradual reduction in enterprise inventories. Sponge titanium spot supply was relatively tight, and the previous pricing adjustments by some sponge titanium producers were gradually accepted by the downstream market. Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream manufacturers helped stabilize the previously increased prices. Based on SMM analysis, sponge titanium production is expected to remain stable in February.
Light Rare Earth
In January 2025, domestic Pr-Nd oxide production further declined MoM, while Pr-Nd alloy production also saw a slight MoM decrease. The reduction in Pr-Nd oxide production was mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong, while the decrease in Pr-Nd alloy production was primarily in Jiangxi and Zhejiang.
According to the SMM survey, starting in January, some raw ore separation enterprises in certain regions experienced significant MoM declines in monthly production due to raw material shortages or year-end maintenance shutdowns. Enterprises that reduced or halted production due to the holiday are expected to gradually resume normal operations after the Chinese New Year break in February. However, considering the continued tight supply of raw ore, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to maintain the pre-holiday upward fluctuation trend in February.
In terms of metals, a small number of enterprises reported production reductions or shutdowns during the Chinese New Year, but most enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday. As a result, the MoM decline in Pr-Nd alloy production was relatively small.
Medium-Heavy Rare Earth
In January 2025, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides from raw ore separation plants saw a slight MoM decrease, while production from scrap recycling enterprises experienced some growth. Overall, total production showed little change compared to December 2024.
According to the SMM survey, the continued suspension of Myanmar ore imports led to a significant tightening of domestic ion-adsorption ore supply. In January, some raw ore separation enterprises even reduced or halted production due to the inability to procure ion-adsorption ore. The tight supply of raw ore caused rare earth raw material prices to show an overall upward trend in January. Meanwhile, profits for scrap recycling enterprises increased, leading to higher operating rates.
NdFeB
In January 2025, domestic NdFeB magnetic material production decreased by approximately 8% MoM. According to the SMM survey, at the beginning of January, some pre-holiday stockpiling orders from the downstream market prompted magnetic material enterprises to actively ramp up production to fulfill these orders, resulting in a temporary surge in production enthusiasm. Only a few small magnetic material enterprises experienced significant production cuts due to insufficient orders. As the Chinese New Year approached, starting from mid-to-late January, some magnetic material enterprises gradually stopped accepting new orders and ceased external quotations, focusing on pre-holiday production preparations.
This year's market orders fell short of expectations, and most enterprises faced poor order-taking conditions, leading to earlier production halts and holidays for magnetic material enterprises. By around January 20, most magnetic material enterprises had already gone on holiday, with only a few large enterprises continuing production to complete urgent orders. Consequently, NdFeB magnetic material production in January declined due to holiday-related shutdowns, but the overall decline was relatively small due to high production enthusiasm earlier in the month.
Looking ahead to February, production in the magnetic material market is expected to remain stagnant at the beginning of the month due to the Chinese New Year holiday. As the holiday ends, enterprises will gradually resume production, but normal operations are not expected to resume until mid-February due to incomplete staffing. Therefore, NdFeB magnetic material production in February is likely to decline further.
Molybdenum Concentrate
According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in January slightly decreased MoM.
During January, domestic molybdenum market demand remained robust, supporting high molybdenum prices and ensuring good profitability for molybdenum concentrate. This motivated molybdenum miners to maintain high production rates. However, stricter environmental regulations and declining ore grades led to slight production decreases in regions such as Henan, resulting in a slight overall market supply reduction.
As February begins, challenges such as increased beneficiation difficulty caused by northern winter conditions and fluctuations in ore grades in some regions are expected to lead to a further slight decrease in molybdenum concentrate production. Nevertheless, most mining enterprises anticipate maintaining stable production levels.
Ferromolybdenum
According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in January slightly decreased MoM.
While molybdenum miners maintained stable raw material prices, steel mills' limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials made it difficult for ferromolybdenum tender prices to rise. Due to the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, ferromolybdenum market profits remained negative, prompting some ferromolybdenum smelters to lower their operating rates. As a result, China's ferromolybdenum production in January slightly decreased MoM. In February, production is expected to further decline slightly due to fewer working days and maintenance shutdowns.
Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)
According to SMM statistics, China's APT production in January decreased by approximately 21% MoM. As the Chinese New Year approached, tungsten market upstream and downstream enterprises gradually halted production for maintenance, leading to tight raw material supply and nearly stagnant trading activities. This week, most enterprises chose to halt production and go on holiday, significantly reducing APT production in January.
Looking ahead to February, most smelters are expected to continue maintenance shutdowns due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Industry insiders indicate that production capacity will gradually recover after the holiday, with normal production expected to resume by mid-February. Therefore, APT production in February is still likely to decline.
Silver
In January, silver production decreased by 4.9% MoM but increased by 9.3% YoY. The decline in January silver production involved 13 enterprises, primarily due to early shutdowns or holidays for enterprises using recycled silver as raw material ahead of the Chinese New Year. Given the high costs of furnace shutdowns and restarts, production departments generally operated continuously with rotating staff, leading to earlier holidays for some production departments. Conversely, 10 enterprises reported increased production, attributed to uninterrupted furnace operations during the holiday and longer production cycles in January compared to December. In the second half of January, as downstream enterprises began holiday closures and traders reduced inventories for the holiday, market purchasing enthusiasm declined. Smelters with less urgent sales tasks postponed silver ingot sales to after the holiday, while those with tighter sales schedules began selling last week and this week. Due to weak market demand, selling prices were relatively low. In February, the continued impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and shorter production cycles are expected to further reduce silver production.
Silver Nitrate
Silver nitrate production in January also showed a downward trend, decreasing by 15% MoM and 36% YoY. This year's earlier Chinese New Year resulted in holiday-related production halts starting in January. PV-related enterprises operated for only 2-3 weeks this month. Mid-month silver price declines prompted raw material restocking and demand fluctuations from downstream orders, slightly boosting production time and output beyond expectations. This week, most enterprises' production departments began holiday closures, while administrative and sales departments took holidays slightly later. Some enterprises adhered to statutory holidays, but logistics issues led to earlier holiday preparations. The significant YoY decline in January silver nitrate production was due to two factors: 1) In January last year, silver prices ranged from 5,000-6,000 yuan/kg, and low silver prices combined with robust downstream demand brought substantial orders to producers, leading some to shorten holiday durations. 2) January last year did not coincide with the Chinese New Year, resulting in a full production cycle without holiday disruptions.
Antimony Ingot
According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingots, crude antimony converted, and antimony cathodes) in January 2025 decreased by 17.06% MoM. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed enterprises, 13 halted production, an increase of 3 compared to the previous month; 17 reduced production, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous month; and 3 maintained normal production, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous month. After consecutive production rebounds in December, January antimony production declined again. Many market participants considered this normal, as the earlier Chinese New Year led to maintenance or temporary shutdowns in late January. However, with sufficient domestic raw material supply, many manufacturers indicated that post-holiday production would not be significantly affected. Market participants expect that due to the long Chinese New Year holiday in February, national antimony ingot production is unlikely to increase significantly compared to January and is more likely to remain flat or slightly decrease.
Note: Since May 2022, SMM has published national antimony ingot production assessments (including antimony ingots, crude antimony converted, and antimony cathodes). Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey includes 33 antimony ingot producers across 8 provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
Sodium Antimonate
According to SMM assessments, China's first-grade sodium antimonate production in January 2025 decreased by approximately 20% MoM. After consecutive production increases in December, January saw a significant decline. Many market participants considered this normal, as the earlier Chinese New Year led to maintenance or temporary shutdowns in late January. However, with sufficient domestic raw material supply, many manufacturers indicated that post-holiday production would not be significantly affected. Among the 11 surveyed enterprises, 3 were in shutdown or commissioning status in December, while most sodium antimonate producers reduced production, with no enterprises reporting increased production. This resulted in a significant overall production decline. Market participants expect that due to the long Chinese New Year holiday in February, national sodium antimonate production is unlikely to increase significantly compared to January and is more likely to remain flat or slightly decrease.
Note: Since July 2023, SMM has published national sodium antimonate production assessments. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey includes 11 sodium antimonate producers across 5 provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
Refined Bismuth
According to SMM assessments, China's refined bismuth production in January 2025 increased by approximately 25.08% MoM compared to December 2024. After consecutive production declines in September and October, December production fell sharply to a low point, making the January rebound expected. Regarding production conditions, as the Chinese New Year approached, many manufacturers began equipment maintenance at the end of the month. With raw material supply gradually easing, manufacturers actively purchased raw materials before the holiday to prepare for post-holiday production. Some manufacturers increased production to ensure post-holiday supply, while a few saw slight production declines.Therefore, market participants generally consider the significant rebound in January production to be within expectations. From the detailed data, among the 24 survey targets of SMM, five manufacturers saw a noticeable increase in production in January, with one manufacturer experiencing substantial growth. Four manufacturers experienced a decline in production. This led to a significant increase in overall bismuth ingot production in January compared to the previous month. Consequently, many market participants expect that, as the Chinese New Year holiday begins in early February, there is a high likelihood of a slight pullback in national refined bismuth production in February 2025, while the possibility of stable production also exists.
Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the national refined bismuth production assessment. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM surveyed 24 refined bismuth producers across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
Lithium Carbonate
In January 2025, SMM's domestic lithium carbonate production showed a downward trend, down 10% MoM and up 50% YoY. By the end of January, the Chinese New Year holiday led some lithium chemical plants to implement maintenance and production cut plans, resulting in a significant reduction in total lithium carbonate production for the month.
By raw material type, lithium carbonate production derived from spodumene decreased by 17% MoM in January. Some lithium chemical plants experienced reduced output due to fewer orders under tolling agreements, while others initiated production line maintenance with relatively long cycles, leading to a significant decline in spodumene-derived lithium carbonate production. Lithium carbonate production derived from lepidolite remained relatively stable MoM, with minimal changes. The overall operating rate for lepidolite-derived production was relatively low, dominated by top-tier integrated lepidolite smelters with stable output and no clear maintenance plans. Non-integrated lithium chemical plants had relatively small production volumes, with limited reductions. Overall, lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate production remained relatively stable. Lithium carbonate production derived from salt lake increased by 2% MoM, mainly driven by the resumption of production after production line upgrades at a specific lithium chemical plant. Other lithium chemical plants maintained stable production at low levels due to low winter temperatures, resulting in minimal changes in salt lake-derived lithium carbonate production. Lithium carbonate production from recycling decreased by 11% MoM, as some lithium chemical recycling plants implemented maintenance and production cut plans in January. Additionally, high raw material costs reduced production motivation, leading to a significant decline in recycled lithium carbonate production.
In February, as some lithium chemical plants remain in maintenance cycles and require time for production line adjustments after resumption, coupled with February having only 28 calendar days, SMM expects domestic lithium carbonate production to continue its downward trend, with a projected 5% MoM decrease.
Lithium Hydroxide
In January, domestic lithium hydroxide production saw a significant MoM decline of approximately 10% and a YoY decrease of 6%. By raw material type, smelting-end production decreased by 8% MoM but increased by 2% YoY. During the month, many enterprises scheduled year-end maintenance and holidays due to the Chinese New Year. Combined with production line adjustments and weak demand, ramp-up of new production lines was slow, leading to a noticeable reduction in smelting-end production. Causticisation-end production also declined significantly MoM, as most enterprises saw no significant improvement in orders during the month and scheduled holidays in late January, further lowering operating rates. In February, due to ongoing maintenance and slow resumption of production, lithium hydroxide production is expected to continue decreasing, with a projected 6% MoM decline and a YoY increase of less than 15%.
Cobalt Sulphate
In January 2025, cobalt sulphate production decreased by 16% MoM and 17% YoY. The primary reasons for the decline were the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and weak downstream demand for ternary cathode precursors, leading to significant production halts and maintenance at cobalt sulphate smelters. As a result, January's overall production saw a noticeable MoM decline. In February 2025, slow post-holiday resumption and the shorter calendar month are expected to result in a slight further decline in production.
Co3O4
In January 2025, Co3O4 production decreased compared to the previous month but showed slight YoY growth. The decline was mainly due to production halts and maintenance at some Co3O4 smelters during the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to reduced overall production. Additionally, weak demand for LCO and early completion of stockpiling by most enterprises further contributed to the decline. In February 2025, slow post-holiday resumption and the shorter calendar month are expected to result in a slight MoM decline in Co3O4 production.
Ternary Cathode Precursor
In January 2025, China's ternary cathode precursor production decreased by 13% MoM and 12% YoY. On the supply side, the reduction was primarily due to production cuts by top-tier enterprises. Some top-tier enterprises experienced reduced output due to production line maintenance, while others adjusted production significantly due to the Chinese New Year holiday and lower-than-expected downstream orders. On the demand side, the off-season at the beginning of the year led to reduced downstream ternary cathode material production, resulting in weaker overall demand. Looking ahead to February, considering weak demand and the holiday impact, ternary cathode precursor production is expected to decrease by 9% MoM and 0.4% YoY.
Ternary Cathode Material
In January 2025, China's ternary cathode material production decreased by 4.3% MoM and 1.4% YoY. The overall operating rate for the month was around 37%, down from December. Supply and demand-wise, the traditional off-season led to a decline in ternary cathode material orders, with only a few top-tier enterprises maintaining high production levels. Some manufacturers primarily supplying overseas customers experienced smaller order declines compared to others. By series, 5-series ternary materials accounted for 22.4%, 6-series for 29.3%, and 8-series for 40.7%, with the proportion of 8-series materials slightly increasing MoM, reflecting a continued rise in high-nickel content. From a market structure perspective, the top 3 enterprises (CR3) accounted for 48.11% of production, CR5 for 62.4%, and CR10 for 80.9%, all up by about 2% compared to December, indicating further industry concentration. Mid-to-lower-tier enterprises experienced significant order reductions. On the demand side, domestic ternary power battery cell production in January decreased by about 7% MoM, mainly due to inventory control and reduced end-user orders at year-end.
For February 2025, China's ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 9.6% MoM, primarily due to holiday-related shutdowns and production line closures. Except for a few producers without holiday plans, most manufacturers are expected to see reduced production in February.
Iron Phosphate
In January, domestic iron phosphate production decreased by 10% MoM but increased by 171% YoY. On the supply side, most iron phosphate enterprises continued normal production during the Chinese New Year to fulfill orders, while a few enterprises halted production or conducted equipment maintenance during the holiday, leading to a decline compared to December. In terms of logistics, iron phosphate enterprises expedited shipments before logistics operations ceased to ensure sufficient raw materials for downstream LFP enterprises during the holiday. On the raw material side, prices of phosphoric acid and industrial-grade MAP remained relatively stable, while ferrous sulphate prices stayed high. Iron phosphate prices in January increased slightly compared to December. On the demand side, LFP production demand did not experience a sharp decline, with first- and second-tier LFP enterprises maintaining relatively stable production. In February, affected by delayed logistics, inventory accumulation, and the traditional off-season, iron phosphate enterprises are expected to adjust production plans, with total production projected to decrease by 10% MoM and increase by 235% YoY.
LFP
In January, China's LFP production decreased by 8.7% MoM but increased by approximately 155% YoY, with the overall operating rate dropping to 52%. On the supply side, first- and second-tier LFP enterprises maintained stable production during the Chinese New Year, with minimal production declines. However, small and medium-sized material manufacturers experienced significant reductions due to decreased orders and proactive production cuts to mitigate losses. Additionally, logistics efficiency was affected by the upcoming holiday, slowing delivery progress and slightly increasing overall inventory. On the demand side, LFP battery cell demand decreased by about 11% MoM in January. In February, demand is expected to decline further.
LCO
In January, LCO production continued to decline, down 7% MoM from December. The primary reason was the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to production line shutdowns and reduced production schedules. On the demand side, battery cell manufacturers slowed their stockpiling pace near year-end, resulting in fewer LCO orders. In February, production is expected to continue its slight downward trend, decreasing by 5% MoM. However, stimulated by consumer electronics subsidy policies, post-holiday terminal electronics market demand is expected to surge, driving a recovery in LCO market demand and procurement volume.
LMO
In January 2025, LMO production decreased compared to the previous month but increased YoY. The decline was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, during which most LMO producers halted production for maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in January's output. Additionally, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed lower stockpiling willingness compared to previous years, providing limited support to the market. By February 2025, LMO producers' production enthusiasm is expected to remain subdued, and with February having fewer calendar days, LMO production is projected to continue declining.

*Survey Methodology
SMM's production survey is conducted by professional analysts through telephone and on-site surveys, providing monthly tracking of China's metal production enterprises and producing China's metal production reports.
During the survey, the sample's basic coverage rate is ensured and continuously expanded. Factors such as capacity scale, regional distribution, and enterprise characteristics are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring representativeness of all sub-item data.