SMM Analysis of China December Iron Phosphate Production and January Forecast

In December, China's iron phosphate production decreased by 2% MoM, up 185% YoY. Supply side, iron phosphate producers maintained high operating rates to ensure sufficient raw material supply for downstream LFP production. Some producers saw significant production increases due to full order books. Raw material side, prices of phosphoric acid and industrial monoammonium phosphate remained high. Additionally, due to reduced production caused by weak demand for titanium dioxide, the supply of ferrous sulphate, a by-product, also declined. As the market for iron phosphate has strong demand for ferrous sulphate, its price rose steadily in December, leading to increased costs for ammonium-based and sodium-based iron phosphate. Coupled with changes in the supply-demand relationship, iron phosphate producers stood firm on quotes, resulting in upward price trends in late December. Since late December marked both month-end and year-end, it was a critical period for negotiating orders. Iron phosphate producers, suffering prolonged losses, strongly sought price increases to mitigate losses. In January, most iron phosphate producers had sufficient orders and continued normal production during the Chinese New Year holiday. Some producers planned maintenance and production line upgrades before the holiday, which might affect January's production. January's iron phosphate production is expected to decline by 6% MoM, up 183% YoY.