Polysilicon prices started to dip in October, What will be scheduled polysilicon production like in the last two months of the year?

Published: Nov 6, 2023 08:42

Source: SMM

Save

According to SMM, actual polysilicon production in October was 144,000 mt, up 6.7% MoM but inched down from previous estimate of 148,000 mt.

According to SMM, actual polysilicon production in October was 144,000 mt, up 6.7% MoM but inched down from previous estimate of 148,000 mt. SMM expected polysilicon production will increase in November and December, but to a limited extent, and polysilicon market sentiment will even soften in December. The output increase could even cease for the first time amid year-end demand sluggishness.

A big part of the reason behind a MoM rise in output in October boiled down to two things. One thing was ramp-up of newly added capacity, such as Leshan Phase III, Inner Mongolia Xinte, Inner Mongolia GCL, among others. The other thing was restart of production lines from some accidents and maintenance in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, except for ongoing accident-generated shutdown of the second phase of a small-to-medium-sized enterprise in Inner Mongolia.

SMM expected that polysilicon output will be about 152,000 mt in November, owing to production of Hoshine Xinjiang at the end of October and continued ramp-up of new capacity. In addition, Qiya Group’s 100,000-mt project was put into trial production and may yield some output in November. Meanwhile, a Sichuan-based leading polysilicon producer planned to shut down old capacity for maintenance, which may lessen supply in November.

For December, SMM predicted that polysilicon output will cease hiking or even shrink for the first time to around 149,000 mt. The main reason for the decline will be price erosions and collapse in scheduled silicon wafer production. In addition, with ongoing high scheduled polysilicon output in November, polysilicon inventory may build up significantly. And polysilicon prices will fall further and may even fall below the cost line of some second- and third-tier companies by the end of the month. Under this circumstance, SMM believed that some polysilicon producers may cut production or even suspend production for maintenance towards the end of the year.

Output

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Sep 4, 2026 22:18

[SMM Chromium Flash] Samancor's Collapsed Dikwena Chrome Tailings Dam Was Never Registered, Probe Finds

A government investigation into the August 13 collapse of a tailings storage facility at Samancor's Dikwena Chrome complex near Brits, North West, has found the facility was showing persistent seepages prior to the failure and that the collapse was reasonably foreseeable based on available evidence, according to a Notice of Orders issued by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and reported by Daily Maverick. The department's findings also indicate the facility appears not to have been registered with the Department of Water and Sanitation, raising questions about compliance oversight at the site before the incident occurred. The facility, known as the Inyoni tailings storage facility, forms part of Samancor's Dikwena chrome plant complex and is operated by contractor One Chrome, a company reported to have no public website. The collapse sent slurry into the neighboring Eland mine, owned by Northam Platinum, which briefly closed an access road as a precaution. Updated reporting indicates one injury was recorded alongside no fatalities. Samancor Chrome itself is unlisted and is no longer a member of the Minerals Council South Africa, a body whose members commit to industry safety and governance standards. The findings add a regulatory compliance dimension to a case that had previously centered on the physical and environmental impact of the failure. South Africa's tailings storage facility guidelines date back to 1998 and are currently under revision, and at least one senior mining executive has said they were unaware of any operation that actually follows them, pointing to a broader industry gap in registration and compliance practices beyond this single incident. The scope of enforcement action beyond the Notice of Orders, along with the full extent of environmental damage and rehabilitation costs, has not yet been disclosed.

Sep 4, 2026 22:18

Sep 4, 2026 22:13

[SMM Chromium Flash] Zimbabwe Pitches Chrome Smelting Investment Opportunities to Australian Miners in Perth

Zimbabwe's Deputy Minister of Mines and Mining Development, Dr. Eng. C. Makwiranzou, presented chrome among a slate of commodity-specific investment opportunities at the Zimbabwe Mining Investment Seminar, held during the Africa Down Under 2026 conference in Perth. Rather than a general appeal for capital, Makwiranzou detailed opportunities across lithium, platinum group metals, chrome, gold, iron and steel, and coal, positioning the pitch as a targeted approach to Australian mining investors specifically. On chrome, Makwiranzou pointed to Zimbabwe's regional beneficiation hubs policy, under which chrome-producing areas are earmarked to specialise in ferrochrome and chromium alloy production, describing the framework as "industrial policy with a map attached." He identified patient capital, funding with a long-term investment horizon suited to the extended payback periods typical of smelting and refining infrastructure, as the critical ingredient Zimbabwe needs from prospective investors to realise its beneficiation ambitions. The chrome pitch was delivered alongside a broader downstream-processing narrative: Makwiranzou also flagged a gap in downstream processing within Zimbabwe's platinum group metals sector, where existing operations including Zimplats, Mimosa, Unki and Karo have created scope for further exploration along the Great Dyke's under-explored margins. Taken together, the presentation signals Zimbabwe is actively marketing its beneficiation policy abroad rather than relying solely on domestic and Chinese investment to build out chrome smelting capacity, a shift worth tracking for what it might mean for the pool of investors ultimately financing the country's ferrochrome ambitions.

Sep 4, 2026 22:13

Sep 4, 2026 20:43

[SMM Analysis] South Africa's Ferrochrome Exports Slide in July as China Pulls Back and Japan Steps In

Sep 4, 2026 20:43