China Stainless steel Output In September And Forecast For October

Chinese high-carbon ferrochrome output was 652,300 mt in September, up 1.54% on the month, and 7.82% on the year. The output in Inner Mongolia was 405,000 mt, up 1.33% MoM, and that in Sichuan stood at 47,000 mt, up 42.42% MoM. September witnessed higher bid price and robust demand from stainless steel mills with high scheduled production, giving ferrochrome producers great incentive to keep production high. Abundant rainfall and ample hydropower supply led to higher high-carbon ferrochrome output in Sichuan. In Hunan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, factors, like high electricity charges at peak power times and previously insufficient procurement of chrome ore, elevated prices of raw materials and a weakening of spot prices, put most ferrochrome producers on staggered production for 8-16 hours. The operating rate in Inner Mongolia stood high, and barely grew in the absence of new capacity.
The output of high-carbon ferrochrome in October is expected to be 626,000 mt, slightly lower than that in September. Suppressed by weaker-than-expected demand in a peak season, stainless steel prices crept down, leading to producers to suffer losses, and news of stainless steel production cuts were frequently reported. Under such circumstance, slumping demand for high-carbon ferrochrome will probably be reported. South China-based ferrochrome plants will see insufficient inventory of raw materials. In addition, chrome ore spot prices will remain elevated. Market sentiment will appear bearish. Therefore, some south China-based ferrochrome plants are more likely to cut productions. Thanks to cost advantage in the north, large manufacturers were not yet in losses. Furthermore, it will be difficult to restart production after shutting down in winter. It is expected that the high-carbon ferrochrome output in north China may remain stable.