SHANGHAI, Mar 7 (MM) - Russia is the largest producer of aluminium other than China. In 2021, Russia's aluminium production reached 3.76 million mt, accounting for more than 5% of global production. In order to match such high aluminium output, Rusal has an alumina capacity of about 9.5 million mt/year. In 2021, Rusal’s alumina output was 8.3 million mt, accounting for 6.3% of global alumina production.
The distribution of Rusal’s alumina refineries shows that about 66% of them are outside Russia and located in Ireland, Jamaica, Ukraine, Guinea and Australia. Rusal’s installed alumina capacity in Russia totals 3 million mt. Its Ewarton refinery in Jamaica has an installed capacity of 675,000 mt, Aughinish refinery in Ireland has an installed capacity of 2 million mt, Nikolaev refinery in Ukraine has an installed capacity of 1.77 million mt, and Friguia refinery in Guinea has an installed capacity of 675,000 mt, and its refinery in Australia has an installed capacity of about 1.5 million mt. Rusal’s self-sufficiency rate of bauxite is about 70%, and its self-sufficiency rate of alumina has exceeded 100%.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered concerns about the supply of alumina in Russia. The installed aluminium capacity in Russia requires additional 4 million mt of imported alumina as a supplement. Rusal decided to temporarily close its Nikolaev alumina refinery in Ukraine last week, which has a capacity of 1.77 million mt. In order to ensure the stable operation of high-profit aluminium, Rusal may seek alumina from neighbouring countries. China may become Rusal's best alumina supplier in terms of its advantageous geographical location and huge installed capacity. Due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the overseas alumina market is beginning to shift from a tight balance to short supply, boosting overseas alumina prices by 22% within a month. If the geopolitical conflict is alleviated, and production and transportation return to normal, the market will gradually return to rationality. However, if the sanctions on Rusal increase with the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the price gap between overseas and Chinese alumina markets will continue to expand and China may change from a major alumina importer to a major exporter.
