Looking back on 2021, China's battery new energy industry has not only suffered from shortage and rising prices, but also ushered in the highlight moment of the whole industry chain; there are not only the upgrading of technology and brands, but also the consideration of innovation and persistence. On the whole, in 2021, China's battery new energy industry will move forward in difficulties and make a breakthrough in persistence.

In this year, the development of China's battery new energy industry has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, promoting the high-quality development of the industrial chain.

In this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China increased, driving the production capacity construction of the whole industry chain to speed up.

In this year, China's new energy industry is rapidly and steadily, affected by the mismatch between supply and demand, the tide of shortage and price rise is fierce.

This year, the competition for resources in China's new energy industry escalated, the giants have signed a long order to lock the supply, the phenomenon of deep binding to suppliers is obvious.

In this year, the long-term development trend of China's new energy industry is clear, technology giants cross-border influx, cross-border investment between industrial chains has become a trend.

This year, China's new energy industry focused on the international market, whether it is hunting upstream lithium ore, or terminal car export, or going out to sea to build factories.

This year, China's new energy industry opened a new era of capital market, Science and Technology Innovation Board, gem, Beijing Stock Exchange, Achievement, spin-off listing, customs breakers continue.

This year, China's new energy car companies sounded the high-end "horn", traditional car companies also collectively launched independent new energy brands.

In this year, the threshold of mileage competition for China's new energy vehicle enterprises was raised, and the pursuit of 1000 km range by many car companies triggered a hot discussion.

This year, China's new energy industry patent "battle" began, forcing industrial chain enterprises to strengthen intellectual property protection and enhance independent research and development capabilities.

Policy-driven to market-driven

Carbon neutralization began in the first year, and policies were released intensively. In 2021, carbon peak and carbon neutralization were written into the government work report for the first time, and the central government set the tone for carbon neutralization work for many times. A few days ago, Xie Zhenhua, China's special envoy for climate change, said that China has set up a leading group on carbon peak and carbon neutralization work, and is working on a carbon peak and carbon neutralization policy system. the top-level design document, the carbon peak action plan by 2030 and policy measures in key industries and key areas will be released one after another. Among them, "1" is a long-term strategy to play a leading role in the dual-carbon policy system, while "N" includes sub-sector implementation plan and guarantee plan.

On the whole, while many ministries and commissions pay more attention to conforming to the trend of marketization and stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption, they encourage relevant cities to optimize purchase restrictions, promote the transformation of consumer goods such as cars from purchase management to use management, and encourage cities with purchase restrictions to appropriately increase license plate targets.

In the market, the demand for new energy vehicles is high. Even under the influence of the novel coronavirus epidemic, subsidy retreat, shortage of chips and cells, and rising prices of upstream raw materials, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively in the first 11 months of 2021, an increase of 1.7 times over the same period last year, and the market penetration reached 12.7%. In addition, according to the newly released delivery data of new car-building forces, according to the statistics of the battery network, Xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai, Nezha, Zero run, and Weimar delivered a total of 63572 vehicles in December 2021, with a cumulative delivery of 437027 vehicles in 2021, with a total delivery of more than 657641 vehicles in history. With the upsurge of production and sales and the surge of delivery, it can be seen that China's new energy market has changed from policy-driven to market-driven consumption.

Net comments: China's new energy vehicles have pressed the acceleration button to achieve sales of 1.367 million vehicles in 2020; sales are expected to exceed 3.5 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of more than 1.5 times. With the withdrawal of subsidies, China's new energy vehicle industry will be formally driven by the demand-side market to promote the high-quality development of the industrial chain.

Increase the speed of production capacity expansion of the whole industry chain

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, as of September 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 6.78 million, accounting for 2.28% of the total. In terms of new registration, in the first three quarters of 2021, 1.871 million new energy vehicles were newly registered nationwide, an increase of 1.199 million over the same period last year, or 178.49 percent.

In addition, from the perspective of industrial chain enterprise planning, domestic leading car companies have set sales targets for 2025, and BYD aims to be number one in the world by 2025. Great Wall Motor plans to achieve 80% of the cars sold by 2025 are new energy vehicles. Geely Motor proposed to achieve more than 40% of the overall sales of new energy products by 2025, and Changan Automobile proposed that the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 35% by 2025. SAIC plans to achieve more than 32 per cent of the group's new energy vehicle sales; GAC GROUP plans to account for 25 per cent of the group's new energy sales in 2025; and FAW plans to account for more than 20 per cent of the group's new energy vehicle sales in 2025.

Power batteries, in order to ensure market share, the head of enterprises to step up capacity expansion. Ningde Times recently said that the design capacity should reach at least 520GWhby 2025; China Chuangxin Airlines recently announced capacity planning of 500GWhby 2025 and 1TWhby 2030; Honeycomb Energy has raised its capacity planning target three times and plans to challenge 600GWhby 2025; Funeng Technology expects power battery capacity to exceed 120GWhby 2025; Guoxuan Hi-Tech plans to reach 100GWhby the end of 2022, and plans to put into production over 50GWh. According to the latest statistics of Battery Network in December, the total planned production capacity of domestic power battery competitiveness TOP10 (Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, China New Airlines, Xinwanda, Honeycomb Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Funeng Technology, Jie Wei Power, Tafel) has exceeded 2.77TWh.

Comments on SciDev.Net: while the number of new energy vehicles in China is rising, the capacity expansion of car companies and power battery enterprises is also accelerating, and the high growth in demand is bringing about a new round of production expansion in the whole industry chain.

The mismatch between supply and demand leads to a menacing increase in the price of out-of-stock.

At present, the planning capacity targets of new energy vehicle companies and power battery enterprises are increasing continuously, and the battery production cycle is about 1.5 years, while the upstream raw materials production cycle is about 2.5 years. Under the high demand growth, the upstream industrial chain is not ready, resulting in lithium carbonate, positive and negative materials, electrolytes, diaphragms and other related battery materials generally tight supply and demand, leading to high prices.

On the supply and demand side, recently, Wu Hui, general manager of the Research Department of Yiwei Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, expects global production and sales of new energy vehicles to reach 22.4 million and 47.81 million in 2025 and 2030 respectively; global demand for power batteries is expected to reach 1268.4GWh and 3083.5GWh in 2025 and 2030, respectively. There is a shortage of production capacity in many areas upstream, among which, in the field of positive materials, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is tight before 2025, and the demand for ternary materials will rise rapidly after 2025; in the field of upstream lithium carbonate, it will be in a tight balance in the next five years; in the field of negative materials, it will basically be in a state of balance between supply and demand in the next five years; in the field of diaphragm, the supply of the diaphragm industry will be tight in the next five years. In the field of electrolyte, if all of them are put into production as planned in the next five years, there will be excess capacity; in the field of copper foil, there will be a serious shortage of capacity in the next five years.

In terms of prices, SMM data show that the market prices of lithium electricity upstream materials rose again and again in 2021, including lithium carbonate year-end price 275000 yuan / ton, an annual increase of 418.87%; lithium hydroxide year-end price 222500 yuan / ton, an annual increase of 349.49%; lithium iron phosphate year-end price 109000 yuan / ton, an increase of 186.84%; lithium hexafluorophosphate market mainstream price 550000 yuan / ton; The price of electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) is 119000 yuan / ton, and the price of ternary positive electrode, negative electrode material, diaphragm, etc.

Net comments: China's new energy industry is rapidly stable, affected by the mismatch between supply and demand, upstream material market prices soar. In the next 5-10 years, China's new energy industry is expected to have a tight supply of capacity in many areas, so that those who master resources can maintain long-term development.

The battle for resources escalated

Scarcity is precious, a series of out of stock, the impact of rising prices, leading to the escalation of the battle for resources in the battery new energy industry chain. Take lithium hexafluorophosphate as an example, the phenomenon of long purchase order harvested by domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises is prominent in 2021. On July 27, 2021, Zhong Yi, deputy general manager of Longde New Energy, said that judging from the long list of lithium hexafluorophosphate recently announced by various companies, a large number of lithium hexafluorophosphate on the market has been locked, accounting for more than 70% of the total lithium hexafluorophosphate in China. According to the incomplete statistics of Battery Network at the end of November, the purchase order of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been no less than 165600 tons, most of the procurement period is more than 1 year, and some orders are as long as 5 years.

In addition, some leading enterprises also lock in supply through advance payment. For car companies, in December 2021, Mercedes-Benz made an advance payment of 1.05 billion yuan to lock in the production capacity of power batteries of Funeng Technology, while a large listed car company in the United States locked in the supply of batteries in the United States Guoxuan in advance. In terms of power batteries, in December 2021, Ningde Times paid 350 million yuan in advance to snap up the lithium iron phosphate cathode material of Longji Technology, and paid 850 million yuan in advance to Shanghai Enjie to snap up the diaphragm. The company had also paid 675 million yuan in advance to snap up the gift material lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Comments on SciDev.Net: the battle for resources in China's new energy industry has escalated, and the whole industry chain has gone to the blue sea of the new energy vehicle market. Party An and Party B are no longer led by one party, but win-win cooperation. At the same time, when supply and demand cooperate, they no longer put eggs in one basket to ensure the security of the supply chain.

Cross-border investment has become a trend

Each subdivision of vehicles, batteries, upstream materials and so on is a link in the chain of promoting the development of battery new energy industry, and it is the premise of each other's survival and development, which also makes each link develop from the traditional relationship between supply and demand to a community of interests, giving birth to the diversification of cooperation modes among industrial chains.

Taking the Ningde era as an example, the company has successively invested in Nahan Automobile, Avita Technology, Polar Krypton Automobile, Aichi Automobile, BAIC Blue Valley and other complete vehicle enterprises. Another power battery leader, BYD, has set a precedent for Chinese car companies to export technology to foreign car companies to export their own technology and products. The first model of the electric car joint venture between the company and Toyota will be mainly based on BYD's platform and technology, which will carry BYD's blade batteries and hang Toyota LOGO. In addition, although the technology giant Huawei stressed that it does not build cars, it also cooperates with a large number of vehicle companies, such as Polar Fox, Cyrus, Guangzhou Automobile, Avita and so on.

In addition, in 2021, the new energy industry continues to be hot, attracting many cross-border entrants, including mining company Saddle heavy shares cross-border acquisition of Xing Li technology shares, home appliance leader Konka Group plans to acquire Heshida power supply shares, department store retail listed company Andely intends to indirectly control Nanfu batteries, Conch Venture plans to acquire Hengchuan technology stake in lithium diaphragm company, and plans to build lithium iron phosphate cathode material project. Longbai Group cross-border lithium iron phosphate, artificial graphite negative electrode and other battery materials; medium nuclear titanium dioxide, Anada, Tianyuan shares and other cross-border construction of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate projects; Jerry shares of oil and gas field services listed company plans to build negative materials projects; fluorite industry leading enterprises gold resources cross-border layout of lithium hexafluorophosphate; phosphorus chemical listed shares in the construction of iron phosphate project; fluorite industry leading enterprises cross-border layout of gold resources lithium hexafluorophosphate; phosphorus chemical listed shares in the construction of iron phosphate project; Hailiang, the leader of copper pipe, invested heavily in the construction of copper foil project.

Comments on SciDev.Net: the long-term development trend of China's new energy industry is clear, and the head enterprises continue to expand their "circle of friends" in order to seek a greater say. At the same time, the road to new energy for dream batteries has never stopped, and cross-border distributors continue to pour in to seek new business development.

Focus on the international market

The development of domestic battery new energy industry chain has been relatively mature, and some enterprises begin to focus on the international market. In terms of export planning, SAIC plans to impact European sales of 300000 vehicles in 2025, of which new energy vehicles account for 70% to 80%. Jiangqi Group plans to sell 150000 vehicles in the international market in 2025. Chery plans to contribute 1/4 of its sales in 2025 from overseas markets, Geely plans to sell 600000 vehicles overseas by 2025, and Xiaopeng's long-term goal is to sell abroad. The top export companies of new energy vehicles in China in November were SAIC passenger cars (6110), Great Wall Motor (426) and BYD (404), while other car companies' exports of new energy vehicles also continued to rise, according to the Federation of Transportation Association data.

In terms of battery industry chain planning, attracted by overseas orders, power battery enterprises have taken the lead to go out. Hangke Technology previously said in an investor survey that from the perspective of orders for the whole year of 2020, domestic customer orders represented by Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Xinwanda, AVIC Lithium Power, etc., accounted for about 70%. According to the incomplete statistics of Shanghai Securities News, in 2021, domestic lithium industry chain enterprises went to sea to build more than 25 plants / projects. Up to now, Ningde era, Vision Power, Honeycomb Energy, China New Airlines, Funeng Technology, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other enterprises have started to build factories in Europe.

At the same time, in the field of upstream materials and equipment suppliers, Xingyuan Materials, Divine Materials, New Zebang, Kodali, Tiannai Technology, Dangsheng Technology, Enjie shares, Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, Dragon Technology, Shida Shenghua and other enterprises also carry out overseas layout, or set up subsidiaries, or invest in supporting projects.

In addition, in terms of raw material acquisition, in order to make up for the shortage of lithium resources in China, mining giants such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Zijin Mining, Huayou Cobalt Industry, Rio Tinto Group and Mount Qomolangma in Tibet have accelerated the layout of lithium mines at sea. Ningde era and other battery companies also began to hunt upstream lithium ore, promoting the competition for lithium ore resources into a white-hot. In a multinational acquisition of lithium ore, Ningde era intercepted Hu Ganfeng lithium industry, and then was intercepted by American lithium industry, a series of competition also led to a continuous increase in the acquisition price of lithium ore. According to the CCTV financial report, the global competition for lithium resources, including Salt Lake, has also become the focus of the industrial chain in 2021, and related enterprises have opened the global "hoarding" mode one after another. according to incomplete statistics, the total amount involved is more than 40 billion yuan.

Comments on SciDev.Net: China's new energy industry focuses on the international market, and the development of new energy vehicles is the only way to become an automobile power, and we must "go out". As China's power battery products are recognized and carried in large quantities, it is expected to have more say in the formulation of the standard system. At the same time, the shortage of upstream raw materials has been the norm in recent years, and it is necessary to reserve sufficient resources in order to "have lithium all over the world."

There are a lot of customs breakers in the capital market.

2021 is not only the year of registration reform, but also the year of IPO. From the reform of Science and Technology Innovation Board and gem registration system to the establishment and operation of the North Stock Exchange, the registration system has moved forward from the local to the whole market, and the number of IPO enterprises is also increasing.

Battery new energy enterprises actively embrace the capital market. In the past year, Science and Technology Innovation Board has been listed and on the way, including Pawa shares, Zhuhai Guanyu, Juyi Technology, time Electric, Jingjin Electric, Fangyuan shares, Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng, Bo Liwei, Tianneng shares, Zhenhua New Materials, Yishitong, Huasheng Lithium Power, Liyuan Heng and so on. Gem has been listed and along the way, including No.1 Science and Technology, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, Copper Crown Copper foil, Huabao Xineng, Ruitai New material, Hunan Yuneng, Hengwei Battery, Neng Hui Technology, Zijian Electronics, Green cycle, Haike Xinyuan, Lutong Technology, etc.; Beitri, Changhong Energy and Dre Lithium entered the market.

In addition, Atreh Raceway newly added Dragon Group; China New Airlines plans to list in Hong Kong; some enterprises also accelerate the listing through spin-off plans, SAIC divested hydrogen Technology, BYD split Fudi Battery, Great Wall Automobile divested Honeycomb Energy, and internationally, SK innovation, LG Chemistry, Volkswagen and other spin-off battery businesses were listed.

Net comments: China's new energy industry opened a new era of the capital market, the IPO boom is still continuing, the number of enterprises and the amount of capital raised are rising, it can be predicted that with the continuous improvement of the capital market, as a gold race track, more and more enterprises in the new energy industry will enter the capital market.

Blow the high-end "horn"

With the continuous expansion of the market scale of new energy vehicles, in addition to new car-building forces such as Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng, independent brands of new energy vehicles have also begun to seek an upward breakthrough to compete for high-end races.

At present, high-end electric brands are launched one after another in the market, such as Zhiji Automobile of Shanghai Automobile Group, Feifan Automobile of Automobile passenger car, extreme Krypton car of Geely Group, Sharon car of Great Wall, Polar Fox of BAIC, Eian of Guangzhou Automobile, Avita Automobile of Changan, Jidu Automobile of Baidu, Lantu Automobile of Dongfeng, and so on.

In addition, BYD also continues to increase the size of mid-and high-end new energy models, recently, the company increased its stake in momentum to 90%, in order to fill the gap between the dynasty series and the high-end series. In addition to the momentum, Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's brand and public relations department, revealed that the first model of the company's high-end brand is a hard off-road vehicle, which will be priced between 50 and 1 million and will be released in the first half of 2022.

Comments on SciDev.Net: China's new energy car companies blow the high-end "horn". The separation of independent new energy brands by traditional car companies is only the first step in the long march, and there is still a long way to go, and this is not just the scope of efforts of car companies. Need technology, cost and other aspects of support. At the same time, more and more car companies have entered the blue ocean of high-end brands, which is bound to set off a new round of struggle to impact the high-end.

The threshold of mileage competition is raised.

In 2021, the new energy car "entered the era of thousands of kilometers of life", Guangzhou Automobile Eian AION LX Plus, Xilai ET7, Zhiji L7, BYD ocean-X, Tesla Model S Plaid, Mercedes-Benz EQXX and other extended 1000km models were announced one after another. In order to achieve a range of 1000 km, GAC Ean AION LX Plus is equipped with NCM ternary lithium battery pack, Xilai ET7 with solid-state battery, Zhiji L7 with silicon-doped lithium battery, BYD Ocean-X continuation blade battery, Tesla with electrodeless battery, Mercedes-Benz announced the use of solar energy and other resources.

Some car owners believe that the mileage of 1000 kilometers represents epoch-making technology, while others worry about the safety impact of large-capacity batteries and the length of charging time.

Shen Hui, founder of Weimar, openly questioned the 1000-kilometer range of electric vehicles, saying that the range of new energy vehicles with a range of more than 1000 kilometers is a huge waste of social resources, and consumers are just trying to get rid of their dependence on oil. and become dependent on batteries.

According to Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, from the perspective of luxury electric cars, 1000 km range may be a trend. "after all, the cost of 1000 km range is high, and only luxury SUV products of this grade have room for batteries, and customers are willing to pay the bill."

Net comments: China's new energy car companies mileage competition threshold raised, in the "selling point" or "gimmick" controversy, the excellent performance is gratified, and to enhance product strength, dispel consumer concerns is the way forward. It can be seen that at this stage, the lack of charging infrastructure and the duration of energy replenishment are the pain points of new energy vehicle owners, which need the efforts of the whole industry chain.

The "battle for patent" begins.

In 2019, trade secrets and patent disputes between LG Chemical and SKI opened because Volkswagen chose a battery supplier. On February 10, 2021, the (ITC) of the United States International Trade Commission made the final decision: it was found that SKI had encroached on the trade secrets of its competitor LG Chemical. ITC decided to ban SKI from selling power batteries and related components in the United States for the next decade.

The dispute between LG Chemistry and SKI has come to an end, and the domestic power battery patent battle has begun. On July 21, the Ningde era submitted an indictment for the AVIC lithium battery patent infringement case, which was accepted. Ningde Times said that the patents involved in the case involved patents for inventions and utility models, and the batteries suspected of patent infringement had been carried on tens of thousands of vehicles. On August 2, AVIC Lithium issued a statement saying that the company had submitted two requests for invalidation of patents involved in the lawsuit to the State intellectual property Office.

The patent war forced the industrial chain enterprises to strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights and enhance the ability of independent research and development. in recent years, Ningde era, Gree Electric Appliances, BYD, Huawei and other enterprises competed to disclose the patents of power battery technology.

Comments on SciDev.Net: China's new energy industry patent "battle" has begun, in technology-intensive industries, more and more enterprises give up "capital" to engage in research and development, with the accumulation of technology patents, can have a place in the fierce competition, and fair competition needs everyone to maintain, in order to go further.