Conjecture on the Development Prospect of hundreds of millions of Mineral Resources in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban

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In early September, Afghan Taliban spokesman Mujahed said at a press conference in Kabul that the Taliban decided to form an interim government and announced the main members of the interim government.

Earlier, the situation in Afghanistan has changed dramatically in the past two months. In early July, US President Joe Biden announced that the US military mission in Afghanistan would end on August 31. Since then, violence in Afghanistan has escalated significantly. Since August 6, the Taliban have occupied major areas of Afghanistan one after another. On August 15, the Taliban encountered no resistance to the occupation of the capital Kabul, the Afghan government and the Taliban held negotiations on the right of peaceful transfer, and President Ghani agreed to resign and go to a third country. On August 19th, Mujahed issued a statement announcing that the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" had been established today. On 6 September, Mujahed issued a statement announcing that he had taken control of Panjhir province and that the war in Afghanistan was over.

For the Taliban, although they are in power, if they want to be in power smoothly and for a long time, they must obtain the support of the people and the recognition of the international community, and the premise of obtaining public support is to develop the economy and improve people's livelihood, at least let the people see hope, so that they can really feel that although life is difficult now, there is hope for the future. At present, however, the actual situation is that Afghanistan has just ended the war, everything is in ruins, and a lot of money is needed for national reconstruction.

After more than 30 years of war, Afghanistan is economically backward and has been among the least developed countries for a long time. Its industrial base is very weak, and agriculture and animal husbandry is the main pillar of the national economy, but Afghanistan is rich in mineral resources to be exploited, which may become one of the important and extremely limited sources of funds for the Taliban in the future. specifically, it is to make full use of these important mineral resources to attract foreign capital development, so as to increase financial revenue.

I. Overview of Mineral Resources in Afghanistan

The former Afghan government estimated that the country's mineral resources were worth more than $3 trillion, or $95000 per capita. At present, more than 1400 mineral deposits have been discovered in the country, including iron, ferrochromium, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, lithium, rare earth, beryllium, gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

Specifically, Afghanistan has about 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore (840,11.50,1.39%) stone, 1.4 million tons of lanthanum, cerium, neodymium and other rare earth elements, 400 million tons of coal reserves and 30 million tons of copper, gold and molybdenum deposits. In addition, it may contain one of the largest lithium deposits in the world. However, these reserves need to be confirmed by further exploration.

(table 1) specific situation of mineral resources in Afghanistan

Mineral species

Distribution area / deposit type

Reserves and other information

Copper ore

The copper belt extending from Kabul to Logar is one of the giant copper deposits that have been proved in the world. The copper belt is 110km long and, after exploration in the former Soviet Union, ore reserves of more than 0.6 per cent are estimated to be more than 1 billion tons.

Copper resources are about 60 million tons, equivalent to 4 per cent of the world's total. At present, a number of copper deposits have been identified in the above two provinces, and the most valuable one is the Ainak Copper Mine, which is located south of Kabul City, with total proven ore reserves of about 700 million tons.

Iron ore

There are nearly 60 iron deposits and iron ore spots, and the main deposit types are sedimentary metamorphic type, skarn type and hydrothermal type. Sedimentary metamorphic iron ore is the most widely distributed and large-scale, and its resources account for more than 80% of the national resources.

At present, it is preliminarily estimated that the iron ore resources in Afghanistan are more than 400 million tons of ore, and the potential resources can reach 2.5 billion tons of ore.

Lithium ore

Mainly concentrated in Nangarhar province And Oruzgan province

The Pasghushta lithium, tantalum, niobium and tin deposit in Nangarhar province has reserves of over 100 million tons, while the Taghawlor lithium and tin mine in Oruzgan province has reserves of over 100 million tons. In addition, the Jamanak lithium mine has nearly 30 million tons of reserves.

Lead-zinc ore

A total of 145 lead-zinc ore sites have been found, of which the grade is low, and most of them have not been specially investigated. The main types of ore deposits are skarn type and sedimentary type. Mainly distributed in the central Farahrud block and Helmand block.

The scale of the deposit is limited, most of them are small deposits, and the scale of medium and large deposits is small.

Bauxite ore

It is mainly distributed in Obatu-Shera area of Chabul Province and Narago area of Baglan Province, which is lateritic bauxite, whose deposit contains high silicon, the ore quality is not very good, and requires a lot of electricity to produce electrolytic aluminum. it is impossible to mine bauxite in the short term.

There is an Obatu-Shera bauxite deposit distributed in Chabul province with estimated reserves of more than 30 million tons.

Gold ore

There are 95 rock gold deposits and 85 placer gold deposits, but the scale is very small.

The Zarkashan gold deposit in Ghazni province is a skarn gold deposit with a gold content of 10g / ton and reserves of 1215t. There are placer gold deposits in the northern province of Takhar (currently mined by hand), and the Pinchi valley is expected to contain 20,25 tons of placer gold.

Tin ore

There are mainly skarn type and pegmatite type, as well as some low-grade placers.

It exists in the area where tourmaline is developed in the west. The main deposits are the Misgaran tin deposit in Herat province in the west and the Tourmaline tin deposit in Farah province in the southwest.

Tungsten ore

Tungsten ore producing areas and mineralization points are widely distributed in Afghanistan.

The three mining areas of Farah, Oruzgan and Baraghana are large in scale. Most of the tungsten deposits are skarn type, and the metallogenic age is mainly Paleogene.

Chrome ore

It is rich in chromite, and most of the chromite deposits occur in part of the Lugar Valley in northeastern Afghanistan.

The most representative is Logar chromite, with estimated ore reserves of 192400 tons on the surface. Most of the remaining chromite deposits have reserves of several thousand tons and have not been developed.

Beryllium ore

The more important deposits are Dalahpec and Dalahnur deposits in Nangarhar province.

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Cesium ore

Tatan deposit, Nangarhar province

One of the cesium zeolite (or cesium garnet) zone has reserves of 66 tons (or 200 tons of cesium zeolite).

Source: collated on the basis of public information

II. The situation in Afghanistan is expected to remain stable for a long time in the future.

From the external environment, after the withdrawal of US troops, even if they still want to intervene in Afghanistan, it will not be so easy. Russia has learned a lesson from the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, and its impact on the situation in Afghanistan is bound to be more cautious. Overall, it is unlikely that outside forces will intervene in Afghanistan in the foreseeable future. In this way, Afghanistan has ushered in a rare period without forced intervention by major powers, which has brought a very rare opportunity for the Taliban to maintain national stability and rebuild economic and social order, and the situation in Afghanistan is expected to remain stable for some time to come.

From the perspective of the Taliban, although it still has a conservative ideological color, the Taliban's control of Afghanistan this time is much higher than it was when it first came to power from 1996 to 2001, which makes it possible for it to better control the situation, maintain social stability and promote national reconstruction. In their 20-year battle with the US military, the Taliban have long been hiding among the Afghan people and relying on the support of the people at the bottom to survive and develop, which also makes them better understand what the people are thinking. it is possible to pursue policies that are more in line with the fundamental interests of the Afghan people. Under such circumstances, it should be the real idea of the senior Taliban to negotiate the establishment of an open and inclusive Islamic government. An open and inclusive Islamic government will not be as extreme as it used to be and will contribute to unity and cooperation within Afghanistan.

III. The Taliban frequently show goodwill to China and seek cooperation.

Although the Taliban have taken control of the Afghan regime, after the establishment of the new regime, they must revive the economy and gain recognition and support from the international community. Therefore, recently, the Taliban have frequently sent signals of cooperation to many countries. As one of the major powers in the Security Council that did not participate in the war in Afghanistan, China has become the priority target for the Taliban to send friendly signals. As early as the end of July, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Baradar, head of the political committee of the Afghan Taliban, and his party in Tianjin. Baladar's status in the Taliban is second only to leader Ahonzada. Baradar made an important statement to China, hoping that China will participate more in peace construction in Afghanistan and play a greater role in Afghanistan's economic development. At the end of August, senior Taliban leader Hanafi met with the Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan and his party in Kabul. On the same day, Taliban spokesman Mujahed said in an interview with the media that the Taliban want to maintain good relations with China and all countries and will seek to develop "economic and friendly relations" with China. On September 2, Assistant Foreign Minister Wu Jianghao spoke on the phone with Hanafi, deputy director of the Afghan Taliban political Office in Doha, and the two sides exchanged views on the situation in Afghanistan and issues of common concern. Hanafi said that the Taliban is willing to continue to develop friendly relations between Afghanistan and China and will take effective measures to ensure the safety of Chinese institutions and personnel in Afghanistan. The "Belt and Road Initiative" cooperation advocated by China is conducive to the development and prosperity of Afghanistan and the region, and Afghanistan hopes to continue to actively support and participate. The Taliban have also repeatedly promised the outside world that they will ensure the safety of foreign investors. Recently, Taliban spokesman Mujahed said that he is seeking to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan and believes that it is "very important" for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to extend to Afghanistan. The Taliban have clearly defined China as the "most important partner" and offered an "olive branch" to China, saying that they hope to work with China to develop copper resources in Afghanistan.

The reason why the Taliban frequently reach out to China and seek cooperation with China is very simple. Afghanistan urgently needs to rebuild the country and hopes that China can continue to invest in Afghanistan, because China has not only advanced technology but also very rich experience in resource development and infrastructure construction. If China can help the Taliban to rebuild the country, it will get twice the result with half the effort. With regard to the rich mineral resources in Afghanistan, including copper mines, if the Taliban can jointly develop with China, then Afghanistan is expected to realize the modernization transformation with the help of China. Not only can its mineral resources be explored, utilized or re-put into production, but also access to the global market can be found to obtain large amounts of funds urgently needed for national reconstruction, which is probably the most important thing for the Taliban. It is also its ultimate goal. China has responded that as long as the Taliban can ensure domestic peace and stability and sever ties with terrorism, China will also actively help the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

IV. Chinese mining enterprises are likely to participate in the development of mineral resources in Afghanistan in the future.

But on the other hand, the international community, including China, should not only listen to the Taliban, but also observe their deeds. The harsh and extreme policies adopted by the international community during its rule of 1996-2001 are still fresh in the memory of the international community. During that short five-year period, the Taliban imposed high-handed rule on ethnic minorities such as the Hazara, and imposed strict sharia restrictions on women, leading to growing resentment. After the "9 / 11" incident that shocked the world, the Taliban who provided refuge for al-Qaeda has been constantly condemned by the international community. Several current Taliban leaders indicated that they had made mistakes during that period and had learned lessons, although they did not specify what those mistakes and lessons were. Objectively speaking, although the Taliban, which has regained political dominance in Afghanistan, has shown some changes compared with 20 years ago, such as renouncing ties with terrorist organizations and allowing women to receive education, but so far, both the Afghan people and the international community still have great doubts about its future rule, and it is necessary to see concrete actions by the Taliban to deliver on its promises.

For the Taliban, if they really want to jointly develop Afghanistan's mineral resources, including copper, with China, they should take concrete actions. They can make a difference on how to properly deal with the historical legacy of the mineral resources development agreement signed between the former Afghan government and Chinese enterprises. For example, in November 2007, Two Chinese companies have jointly won a tender to explore and develop the rich Ainak (Aynak) copper deposit south of the Afghan capital Kabul. As a result of the war, the copper project has not been developed so far, and how the Taliban view and deal with this issue will be a litmus test of its sincerity to work with Chinese companies to develop its mineral resources. If handled properly, the Taliban could play an exemplary role in attracting Chinese companies to invest in mineral resources in Afghanistan.

We believe that it is possible for Chinese mining enterprises to participate in the development of mineral resources in Afghanistan in the future, but this is based on the following premises: first, the framework of China's foreign policy towards the Taliban regime is clear. Second, the social situation in Afghanistan is stable. Third, Afghanistan needs to build a legal business environment to ensure the security of investment. Fourth, have the basic conditions for mining exploration and development (water, electricity and transportation). Fifth, support from a variety of other industries, including machinery manufacturing, transportation, chemical industry, energy, human resources, and so on. Judging from the current situation, it will take some time to meet the above conditions.

There are three advantages for Chinese mining enterprises to participate in the development of mineral resources in Afghanistan. First, Afghanistan is a neighboring country of our country, with close geographical location and relatively convenient transportation. Second, for a long time, China has pursued a policy of good-neighborliness and friendship, and people from all walks of life in Afghanistan have favorable feelings towards China. Third, China's mining enterprises have obvious advantages in technology and experience in the development of mineral resources. If domestic enterprises are interested in participating in the development of mineral resources in Afghanistan, it is appropriate for enterprises to jointly participate in project development and avoid going it alone. We should do a good job in all aspects of preparatory work, fully take into account the various difficulties and risks that may be encountered, and prepare plans for all kinds of emergencies.