[institutional point of view] bottoming out and rebounding, the decline in nickel prices is far from over.

Published: Sep 23, 2020 08:55
Source: Jinyuan futures

SMM News: Tuesday Shanghai nickel 2011 contract price trend bottomed out in intraday trading, nickel prices plummeted after the opening, once approaching the 110000 integer mark, but soon began to recover, recovering more than half of the decline, and finally closed at 113200 yuan / ton. The trend of nickel in the night market fluctuated and rebounded, while the price of nickel in Shanghai fell.

Industry: BHP Billiton: the construction of the Kwinana nickel refinery will be completed in the second half of the year, with a capacity of 100000 tons.

Nickel prices fell sharply yesterday, but rebounded at the end of the day and fell slightly at night. The fall in nickel prices did not begin yesterday. On the contrary, after hitting a high in early September, nickel prices began to peak and fall by more than 10 per cent as a whole. As we have warned before, the withdrawal of long positions in nickel prices has also proposed that nickel prices will enter the pattern of supply exceeding demand in the fourth quarter, which is mainly based on the continuous production capacity of Ferro nickel in Indonesia, which will change from quantitative change to qualitative change. The supply pressure of Ferro nickel will increase significantly, and we believe that the future trend of nickel price will be mainly shock decline. However, before the inventory pressure increases, the decline in nickel prices will still be repeated.

Operation suggestion: it is recommended to try to wait and see.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
Feb 7, 2026 16:41
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
Read More
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
High-Grade NPI Smelter Profits Squeezed as Ore Prices Rise and Sales Prices Dip
[SMM Nickel Flash] Based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago, smelter profits for high-grade NPI remained high this week. However, from the current raw material side, ore prices from both the Philippines and Indonesia increased, while auxiliary material prices saw a slight pullback, leading to an increase in the cash cost of producing high-grade NPI from spot ore. At the same time, high-grade NPI prices experienced some pullback, making it difficult for smelter profits to see sustained improvement.
Feb 7, 2026 16:41
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
Feb 7, 2026 16:40
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
Read More
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
High-Grade NPI Prices Fall, Expected to Stabilize as Chinese New Year Approaches
[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, due to a sharp decline in futures triggering arbitrage selling, high-grade NPI prices fell significantly. However, after the selling activity subsided, upstream quotations and the market center gradually returned to normal levels, supported by cost factors. Looking ahead, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market activity is expected to remain subdued, and high-grade NPI prices are projected to hover at highs with limited fluctuations.
Feb 7, 2026 16:40
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Feb 7, 2026 16:39
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Read More
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
Nickel Prices Drop: SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI Down 17.2 Yuan, Indonesia NPI FOB Index Falls 2.06 $/mtu
[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell 17.2 yuan/mtu WoW to 1,035.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index average price dropped 2.06 $/mtu WoW to 131.2 $/mtu. At the beginning of the week, futures hit limit-down, and nickel prices fell sharply WoW, driving the emergence of arbitrage supplies sold at low prices, leading to a significant decline in high-grade NPI prices.
Feb 7, 2026 16:39