China’s Imports of Nickel Ore and NPI Dropped MoM in November

"Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries**

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

As of last Friday, the average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax), down 3.2 yuan/mtu WoW. Supply side, even though the approved nickel ore quota is increasing, it still takes time for the nickel ore to move from the mine to the smelter. As a result, the current operating rate of NPI producers remains low. Stainless steel and stainless steel scrap prices kept dropping. High-grade NPI is still more cost efficient than stainless steel scrap. The terminal need for stainless steel stayed low, failing to boost the high-grade NPI prices. As a result, it causes a build-up in inventory and is expected to keep NPI prices low.

China rare earth ore imports recorded 14,400 mt in January-February 2022, down 13% YoY which was mainly attributed to middle and heavy rare earth.

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused many worries in the financial market. With the further aggravation of the situation, both domestic and foreign nickel prices have risen sharply, among which SHFE nickel prices have once again been set a record high.

The SHFE and LME nickel prices diverged markedly in the afternoon trading on Tuesday. The SHFE/LME nickel price ratio shrank from 7.28 to 7.07. The import loss widened to $1,000/mt.

According to General Administration of Customs China imported 8.73 million mt of bauxite in December, up 13.32% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year.

The trades remained subdued, and the Yangshan copper premiums changed little. Many trading companies have closed their accounts and are busy with the year-end settlement, lacking purchasing interest for spot cargoes. Import losses fluctuated between 200-400 yuan/mt during the week against the January contract.

Customs data showed that China imported 5.78 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed) of nickel ore in August, up 11.4% month on month and 54.2% year on year.

NPI in China rose 4.82% from a month ago to a record high of 53,200 mt in Ni content in Aug