SMM Network News: at the beginning of this year, the epidemic brought severe challenges to the domestic economy, but also caused an unprecedented impact on the automobile market. As the domestic epidemic situation has been brought under control, life and production in various places have basically returned to normal, and the resumption rates of catering, accommodation and small and medium-sized enterprises have increased significantly. Domestic GDP officially announced in the first half of July 16, year-on-year-1.6%, economic growth in the second quarter changed from negative to positive, 3.2% compared with the same period last year, up 10 percentage points from the first quarter. Recently, non-essential consumer goods such as automobiles, alcohol and tobacco, and cosmetics have been gradually improved, the pent-up demand for cars has been concentrated on compensation, and the automobile market has stabilized.
According to the narrow passenger car data released by the Federation of passengers, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were 7.667 million,-22.9% year-on-year, and the retail sales were 7.709 million,-22.5% compared with the same period last year. This year, the retail market grew by-41% in the first quarter and-3% in the second quarter. The growth rate of the car market stabilized in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, showing a V rebound compared with the first quarter. The market structure in the first half of the year mainly shows the following characteristics:
The market concentration is increasing continuously.
In the first half of the year, TOP10 manufacturers accounted for 61% of the passenger car market, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year. In the past three years, the automobile market has entered an adjustment period from medium-to-high-speed growth in the past, especially this year, under the influence of the epidemic, automobile management is facing great challenges. Weak brands have poor anti-risk ability, cash flow and supply chain are more likely to have problems, and some brands have gone bankrupt. Relatively speaking, the head manufacturers have more resources, strong anti-risk ability, and the market concentration is increasing.
The performance of luxury cars is outstanding.
Luxury cars continued the high growth trend, with the share of luxury cars in the first half of the year 13.7%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the same period last year, of which the share of luxury cars in June reached an all-time high of 14.8%. Luxury car owners benefit from consumer upgrades, falling prices and customers of luxury cars, such as the financial sector, are less affected by the epidemic. At the same time, the impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises is the most serious, the impact on low-and middle-income groups is more obvious, and the share of independent brands has declined more.
The overall performance of SUV is better than that of cars.
In the first half of the year, SUV outperformed cars as a whole, with SUV down 17 per cent and cars down 25 per cent year-on-year. Recently, as the market stabilized, SUV took the lead in year-on-year growth in the second quarter, rising 6 per cent year-on-year, becoming the main release point for suppressed demand during the epidemic, especially in the high-end SUV market, which grew 25 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year.
The new energy market is in the doldrums.
In the first half of the year, the retail market for new energy vehicles was 314000, down 44% from the same period last year, underperforming the overall market. Affected by the epidemic and the decline in oil prices, individual consumers' willingness to buy has weakened, and the demand for public and commercial vehicles has declined. In terms of market structure, Tesla performed prominently as a representative of new forces, selling 15000 vehicles in June, accounting for 17.7% of the new energy market. At the same time, the A00 market has recovered periodically this year, driven by the Baojun E100, but there are certain variables after the end of the subsidy in July. Overall, the environment of the new energy market in the second half of the year is expected to be greatly improved compared with the first half of the year.
The comprehensive influencing factors of the automobile market are intertwined in the second half of the year, with both opportunities and risks.
With the overall control of the epidemic in Beijing and the gradual decline of the response level, the domestic epidemic prevention and control has basically formed a normal mechanism, superimposed overseas epidemic input pressure, and the situation of "external defense input, internal defense rebound" is expected to continue for some time.
The negative effects of the epidemic, the economy and the environment of the car market have all improved in the second half of the year, but the income and income of residents affected by the epidemic are expected to quickly return to the pre-epidemic level, while the effect of favorable policies of local governments has weakened, and passenger cars are expected to become regular in the second half of the year compared with the same period last year, but there is greater pressure.
First, the economy has improved after the epidemic, but residents' income and consumer confidence need to be improved.
At present, the economy is in a period of recovery after the epidemic, the three major economic indicators of consumption, investment and exports continued to improve in the second quarter, residents' income feelings have improved, and the overall willingness to consume has slightly increased, but the range is limited. Recent floods in the south have also dragged down the willingness to consume. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is highly concerned by governments at all levels. Effectively stimulating automobile consumption will help to further stimulate market vitality and ensure people's livelihood and employment.
Second, the combination of favorable policies will attack, and the strength of positive policies in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half
The central ministries and commissions have repeatedly issued signals to promote automobile consumption and successively issued favorable policies such as value-added tax relief for second-hand cars, postponement of the implementation of the sixth year of State, and extension of new energy subsidies. Local governments have responded positively. Since 2020, more than 30 provinces and cities have successively promulgated nearly 160 policies to promote automobile consumption, with subsidies covering consumers, dealers, manufacturers and other objects, among which many purchase restrictions have been relaxed in many cities. Increase the number of license plates.
The implementation of favorable policies has played an important role in promoting the popularity of the car market and stimulating consumer demand. Local policies concentrated their efforts in the second quarter, partly in the form of a combination of government and enterprises, which provided a good support to the market. However, with the withdrawal of some local policies in the second half of the year, the support of favorable policies to the market has weakened.
Third, the market environment has improved and local auto shows have resumed to promote the release of consumer demand.
Driven by favorable policies, the early demand for cars suppressed by the epidemic was released, promoting the stabilization of the car market in the near future. Market factors such as the resumption of the auto show and the promotion of manufacturers in the second half of the year were further strengthened. Auto shows suspended during the epidemic opened one after another in May, and the Chengdu International Auto Show also officially opened on July 24. According to preliminary statistics, more than 360 local auto shows were held from May to July, coupled with the continued decline in model prices, consumer demand has been further excavated and released. At the same time, more automobile manufacturers have not adjusted their annual targets, and the sales pressure is great in the second half of the year.
After comprehensively considering many factors such as macro-economy, industrial policy and market environment, the passenger car market is expected to decline by 11% in 2020 compared with the same period last year.
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