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[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the bearish mentality of high nickel pig iron continues to keep the price of stainless steel stable.
Jul 3,2020 10:05CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Judgment of nickel price: with the arrival of the off-season downstream of stainless steel from July to August, domestic demand is poor and lack of obvious benefits, and the industry is generally pessimistic about the late market, but in the short term, nickel price is still dominated by macro sentiment and technical aspects, showing a concussive trend. Macroscopically, with the policy support and input of various countries, the performance of many economic data can be or marginal improved. The potential negative side is mainly worried about the second resurgence of the epidemic and geopolitical factors. The fundamentals are slightly negative but mostly expected events, the short-term market guidance is not prominent, stainless steel profits are poor and the late supply of Indonesian nickel pig iron continues to increase, under the influence of this recent nickel pig iron market shows a slight weakening trend, the lower support is mainly maintained by high-priced nickel mines. Nickel spot trading is still poor, Jinchuan nickel rising water improvement is related to the arrival rhythm of manufacturers, it is expected that the short-term discount will also remain low.

1. July 2nd SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quotation 101650mur103150 yuan / ton. The nickel morning market fluctuated around the 5 / 40 daily moving average, rising continuously in the afternoon to around 102700 yuan / ton of the 20-day moving average. As the futures price is higher than yesterday, the market trading situation has not picked up, only individual traders can make a deal. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted 500mur400 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday, most Russian nickel traders trading volume is limited. Jinchuan No.1 Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract rose 800mur900 yuan / ton, the supply of goods in the market is still tight, traders have limited room to move goods, it is reported that the shipment volume of some holders with inventory is OK, and the terminal transaction is up 850Mel 900 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan is 102800 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 102350 yuan / ton in Gansu. It is reported that there may be some goods arriving in Shanghai in the near future. The nickel bean newspaper sticker is 1400 won 1300 yuan per ton, which is still the same as yesterday.

2. On July 2nd, the ex-factory price of SMM high nickel pig iron is 960 won 965 yuan per nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as the average price of the previous trading day. Today, there is no mainstream inquiry price in the high nickel pig iron market, the market turnover is still light, the bearish mentality of steel mills is enhanced, and the intention to replenish the stock is worse than in the earlier period. The purchasing rhythm is broken into parts, and the cost is balanced in a small number of times. The iron factory is affected by the rising price of nickel ore in stock, the cost increases, and the willingness to ship at this price is poor, but the price is not as firm as in the early stage.

3. On July 2, the spot price of stainless steel in Wuxi area was mainly stable, but some brands adjusted slightly. 304 cold rolling reported 13300 million yuan per ton, the average price increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the hot rolling report range was 12850 million yuan per ton. At present, stainless steel off-season reasons, the overall market turnover is weak, but the market supply is not much, the price is generally stable, with the steel mill price for a small adjustment, but the actual transaction is basically unchanged. Today, SHFE 10: 30 SS2008 contract price of 13240 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 230 Murray 530 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton)

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