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[SMM analysis] A case of uncertain mood increasing cobalt salt price or a little room for increase in the port of Deban has been confirmed.
May 13,2020 15:57CST
translation
Source:SMM
A new crown case has been confirmed in the port of Deban, South Africa. For the time being, the 14-day isolation policy has little impact on the departure date of the current shipment, but the later shipping date is affected by the 14-day isolation policy due to the return of Congo gold from high-risk countries, or continue to increase the uncertainty of cobalt raw material imports. Cobalt salt plant is willing to raise prices, downstream raw material inventory is gradually insufficient, the acceptance of cobalt salt price increase slightly, and worry about price rise is also increased, cobalt salt price may have a little room to rise.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM5 13: it is understood that the port of Durban, South Africa confirmed a new crown case yesterday. According to the latest notice from South Africa, all ships from high-risk countries and regions will need to be quarantined for 14 days when they arrive at any port in South Africa. At present, it seems that the shipping date of the current South African port in May will only affect the postponement of 7 Murray for 10 days, and there is a high probability that cobalt raw materials will arrive in China in June. However, due to the arrival of cobalt raw materials to domestic smelters in late June, the problem of raw materials shortage in smelters in early June has been determined. For the time being, the policy of 14-day quarantine of cobalt raw materials in South Africa has little impact on the departure of the current shipping date, but the later shipping period is affected by the 14-day quarantine policy due to the return to the Democratic Republic of the Congo from high-risk countries, or continues to increase the uncertainty of cobalt raw material imports.

According to SMM research, only a small number of ships were unaffected on May 14, and some of them were originally scheduled to be postponed to after May 20. The problem of cobalt raw material shortage has begun to appear in domestic smelters one after another. from small and medium-sized smelters to large smelters, the overall shortage of small smelters is higher, mainly due to low-price inventory shipments and cobalt raw materials difficult to make up. Some large smelting plants are faced with the problem of cobalt raw material shortage, but the product inventory is temporarily more, and the shipment volume in March-April is lower than the same period last year. If we continue to sell at a higher price, the overall supply of the market will be gradually insufficient, and the probability of price rise will increase.

Battery waste traders also raised their quotations this week to more than 160000 yuan / tonne, with a discount coefficient of nearly 67-68 per cent. Some cobalt salt plants also face high recycling waste prices, cobalt salt signing willingness to reduce, raise quotations.

This week's emotional side affected expectations, first of all, the price of electricity cobalt rose, capital inflows and a little rigid demand for delivery. The price of cobalt sulfate rose as the price of electric cobalt rose, and cobalt sulfate rose to 4.6-48000 yuan / ton. According to the basic feedback on the purchase of ternary precursors downstream, there is no stock below 45000 yuan / ton on the market today. SMM Cobalt Sulfate quoted 4.5-47000 yuan / ton. Cobalt salt factories are more willing to raise prices, downstream ternary precursors and cathode materials factories also slightly increase the acceptance of purchase prices, raw material stocks are insufficient and maintain normal production demand increases, cobalt sulfate prices may have a little room for increase.

Cobalt chloride price reflects that cobalt sulfate is not obvious for the time being. Today, SMM cobalt chloride quoted 5.3-56500 yuan / ton, mainly due to the previous cobalt chloride price to cobalt sulfate price a little water. Downstream cobalt oxide manufacturers due to cobalt raw materials / cobalt chloride raw material inventory shortage increased quotation, downstream lithium cobalt acid manufacturers, lithium cobalt acid battery manufacturers began to worry about rising prices, increase the willingness to purchase. The overseas 3C market began to pick up, and the demand for lithium cobalt battery, lithium cobalt oxide, cobalt chloride and other materials gradually increased. At present, the domestic market has less cobalt chloride inventory. SMM believes that the price of cobalt chloride may have a little room to rise.

Attached to the latest notice from South Africa: all ships from high-risk countries and regions are required to be quarantined for 14 days upon arrival at any port in South Africa. If the vessel isolation period is less than 14 days, it needs to be isolated at the designated anchor position until the 14-day isolation period expires. The vessel's isolation period is calculated as follows, starting from the vessel's departure from the previous port until arrival in South Africa, the time used is calculated within the isolation period, if greater than or equal to 14 days and the crew has no fever and other abnormal conditions, there is no need for additional isolation, if less than 14 days, it is necessary to be isolated at the designated anchor to supplement the 14-day isolation period. In addition, vessels from low-risk areas will need to be quarantined for 14 days from the date of the change of crew embarkation date if there is a change in crew members halfway through. The high-risk countries and regions clearly identified in the notice: China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Iran, Hong Kong, China, Italy, Vietnam, Taiwan, the United States.

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