SMM monthly output data of basic metals in China is scheduled to be released around the 8th of each month. It aims to proceed from the essence, excavate the real fundamental situation, open up the illusion of the capital market for people in the industrial chain and investors, and grasp the future trend of the non-ferrous market more clearly.
Summary of basic Metal production in China in April 2020
In April 2020, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 752400 tons, an increase of 1.17% over the previous month and 6.5% over the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative output of electrolytic copper in SMM in China was 2.9051 million tons, down 0.28% from the same period last year. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly in April from a month earlier, the impact of the epidemic on the recovery of refinery production, and new production capacity continued to climb production, while production growth was obvious, mainly due to refinery maintenance concentrated in the second quarter in 2019, with a low base in the same period.
In April, the domestic sulfuric acid consumption improved obviously, and the acid prices everywhere recovered. Most of the areas except North China are no longer sold at discounted prices, which has alleviated the production pressure on domestic refineries, but the price is still far from the cost of acid production. On the other hand, due to the major overseas mining countries, especially Peru, which were greatly disturbed by the epidemic in April, copper concentrate shipments declined, and refineries are generally concerned about the supply of subsequent raw materials, and there has also been an increase in maintenance plans in the second quarter, which may have an impact on electrolytic copper production in June and July.
According to the refinery scheduling plan, SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to be 740100 tons in May 2020, down 1.38 percent from the previous month, an increase of 16.82 percent over the same period last year. By May, the cumulative output of electrolytic copper was 3.6432 million tons, an increase of 2.71 percent over the same period last year. With an increase in refinery repairs starting in May and tight raw material supply from some refineries, electrolytic copper production is expected to fall from April.
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According to SMM data, in April (30 days), China produced 5.645 million tons of alumina, of which metallurgical grade alumina was 5.395 million tons, and the average daily output of metallurgical grade was 179800 tons, an increase of 2.61% from the previous month, down 7.07% from January to April. China's cumulative metallurgical grade alumina production decreased by 8.61% from January to April. Alumina prices hit bottom in April, and the area of production reduction affected by the epidemic in Shanxi and Henan has narrowed. At the same time, the production of some imported ore production lines invested by Guodian in Shanxi, Luoyang Wanji and Chongqing Bosai has been reduced within the month. Under the background of increasing and decreasing production, the average daily output of alumina in April was slightly higher than the previous month.
As of early May, the operating capacity of metallurgical grade alumina was 65.08 million tons. In May (31 days), the output of metallurgical grade alumina is expected to be 5.527 million tons, and the average daily output has dropped slightly to about 178000 tons. This is mainly due to the further reduction of production in the import line of some northern alumina plants (Chinalco, Shanxi, etc.). The reduction of production is possible. It is necessary to pay continuous attention to the changes of imported ore production lines in Shanxi and Henan areas and the willingness to reduce production capacity and resume production capacity under the condition of mild price increases.
According to SMM data, China's electrolytic aluminum output in April 2020 (30 days) was 2.958 million tons, an increase of 2.4 percent over the same period last year. By the end of April, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 36.51 million tons / a, with an annual capacity of 41.23 million tons / year. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China was 88.5%. The overall operating rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that at the end of March 2020. by the end of April, The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 300000 tons / year compared with the end of March. Aluminum prices bottomed out in early April, the proportion of production capacity with cash loss narrowed, SMM statistics cumulative maintenance capacity reduced to 570000 tons / year, at the same time, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and other provinces have new and resumed production capacity as scheduled.
From January to April 2020, the cumulative output of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 11.934 million tons, an increase of 3.6% over the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative consumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 10.7 million tons, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Driven by strong domestic demand, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was quickly removed. In May, under the support of aluminum prices, it is expected that new electrolytic aluminum production capacity will continue to be put into production as planned, while the scale of overhaul and reduced production capacity will be narrowed. SMM estimates that domestic electrolytic aluminum production in May (31 days) will be 3.07 million tons, down to 0.1 percent year-on-year growth rate.
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In April 2020, the national output of primary lead was 262000 tons, up 9.34% from the previous month and 1.05% from the same period last year. From January to April, cumulative production fell 4.3 percent from the same period last year.
According to the survey, primary lead production continued to increase in April, basically in line with expectations. Apart from the fact that the output of smelting enterprises resumed in March continued to climb in April, at the same time, Henan Yuguang, Hunan Jingui, western mining and other enterprises resumed after overhaul, although a small number of enterprises began routine maintenance in the middle and late April, but it has little impact on the overall output.
In addition, with the escalation of the overseas epidemic situation in the middle and late March, the import of lead concentrate was restricted to a certain extent, which led to the reduction of domestic mineral circulation supply and the continuous decline of lead concentrate processing fees, but it is worth noting that primary lead smelting enterprises generally have a certain mine stock. up to now, smelting enterprises have not yet reduced production because of tight ore supply.
Looking forward to May, for example, mines in high altitude areas such as Inner Mongolia will resume production seasonally, or ease the tightening of lead concentrate to a certain extent, the decline in processing fees for lead concentrate will slow down, and the production of most primary lead enterprises will be basically normal. and some enterprises with equipment failure problems lifted, its output increased slightly in May. In May, there are also some domestic primary lead enterprises into the state of maintenance, such as Anhui Copper Guan, Chifeng Mountain Gold, Yunnan Mengzi and so on. Overall, there is little change in primary lead production in May, and SMM expects primary lead production to drop to 254000 tons month-on-month in May.
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SMM China's refined zinc production in April 2020 was 479600 tons, an increase of 2.79 percent over the previous month or 13000 tons over the previous month, an increase of 4.02 percent over the same period last year. SMM research sample capacity of 6.085 million tons. In addition, the domestic SMM zinc refining output in China was revised to 466600 tons in March (restored by a refinery in Hunan), and the sample alloy output of the domestic refined zinc smelter in April was 74133 tons, an increase of 7.93% over the previous month, of which the output of hot-dip galvanized alloy was 59783 tons.
According to the SMM survey, the domestic refined zinc production in April is basically in line with the expectation of month-to-month increment. In April, the increment of domestic refined zinc was mainly concentrated in the overhaul from February to March and the resumption of production of refineries that stopped production last year, and the areas were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. In addition, due to the epidemic situation still had an impact on domestic inter-provincial logistics and transportation in March, the raw material supply of refineries in Yunnan, Shaanxi and other regions was affected to a certain extent, while in April, domestic logistics resumed and refinery production returned to normal, further driving the output up. On the other hand, the reduction is mainly affected by the maintenance of domestic refining zinc refineries, which are concentrated in Qinghai, Guangdong and Yunnan, and the output of refined zinc in China increased by 13000 tons in April compared with the previous month.
In May, affected by many factors, such as delayed delivery of overseas mines due to epidemic force majeure and low stock of raw materials in domestic refineries, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has fallen to 5000 yuan / metal ton, the import processing fee has fallen to US $150 / dry ton, the profit of smelter enterprises has narrowed, and some refineries have chosen to advance the maintenance plan, in addition to the original planned maintenance (Yunnan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc.). In May, the output of refined zinc in China fell by about 4500 tons compared with the previous month.
Refined tin production in April was 10730 tons, down 10.6 per cent from March. The decline in China's refined tin production in April was mainly due to a slight reduction in Yunnan's overall production in April compared with March, as well as the suspension of production and maintenance of some domestic refineries. The output in April in Jiangxi and other places was relatively stable compared with that in March. At present, the supply of raw materials such as tin ore and waste is still tight. SMM expects China to refine tin due to raw material constraints, and its production may remain low in the short term, with refining tin production expected to be around 10500 tons in May.
In April 2020, the national output of electrolytic nickel was 14400 tons, down 7.63 percent from the previous month, an increase of 14.55 percent over the same period last year. The decrease in production in April was mainly due to the scheduling and production of some domestic smelters in accordance with the financial monthly cycle. Although the scheduling and completion of the manufacturers did not change much in March and April, after being converted into natural monthly production, the amount taken into account in April was lower than that of the previous month. At present, the production conditions of most domestic smelters are good: Gansu smelters have recently completed the production schedule steadily with a monthly output of 13000 tons; the monthly output of Xinjiang smelter has increased slightly compared with the first quarter and is expected to be maintained next month; the same output of electrolytic nickel in Jilin and Shandong smelters is stable, while the output of Tianjin smelter does not change much this month, but in the later stage, it may gradually reduce due to raw material costs and profits. Guangxi smelter still suspended electrolytic nickel production line.
In May, domestic production of electrolytic nickel is expected to be 15100 tons. Although the overseas raw materials of individual enterprises have been affected, the domestic production environment is improving, and nickel prices are rebounding, and total domestic production will remain stable.
In April, China produced 9900 tons of metal in nickel sulfate, compared with 44500 tons in kind, down 6.88 percent from the previous month and 20.54 percent from the same period last year. Among them, the output of battery grade nickel sulfate is 39100 tons, and that of electroplating grade nickel sulfate is 5500 tons. The decline in nickel sulfate production this month is mainly related to the suspension of production at some factories and is expected to reduce production of 5000-6000 physical tons of nickel sulfate. Nickel prices rose in April, nickel sulfate raw materials rose, but nickel sulfate demand is still weak, some manufacturers chose to stop production to solve the problem of inventory backlog and low price shipment.
Due to the outbreak of the foreign epidemic at the end of March and the suspension of production by car companies in Europe and the United States, due to a certain conduction delay, it is expected that orders from precursor factories will decrease in May, resulting in a decline in demand for nickel sulfate. However, it is understood that the nickel sulfate plant, which ceased production in April, is expected to resume production in late May, so national nickel sulfate production is expected to rise 4.97 percent to 10300 metal tons in May from the previous month.
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1. The value with * is the corrected value, and the value in italics is the predicted value.
3. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.
1. Research methods
SMM production research is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other means, regularly carry out monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and issue a report on Chinese metal production.
In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage proportion of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the size of production capacity, geographical distribution, enterprise nature and other details of the reasonable selection and distribution of samples, so that each sub-item data is representative.
Production data include last month's output (initial value), the previous month's output (revised value) and the forecast for the current month's output. In general, SMM rarely modifies the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.
Before the 10th of each month through the Shanghai Nonferrous Network official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today Nonferrous), mobile phone station (m.smm.cn) and other official channels to the public.
2. Sample introduction
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