Summary of basic Metal production in China in June 2019
According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper production in June was 728300 tons, up 14.96 percent from the previous month, a small increase of 0.8 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative output in the first half of the year was 4.2752 million tons, down 1.18 percent from the same period last year. Production in June was slightly higher than expected, mainly because the output of Zhongyuan Gold smelter and Fuye Group was higher than originally planned. The month-on-month increase in production in June was mainly due to the weakening of the impact of centralized maintenance of domestic smelters, while the release of new expansion capacity within the year.
The cumulative output of SMM electrolytic copper increased by 1.18% in the first half of 2019. SMM believes that it is mainly due to the unexpected situation of force majeure occurred in the first half of this year's new expansion, a large number of repairs concentrated in the first half of the year, and some smelters in the first half of the year, such as capital problems, safety inspection, failure of acid equipment, environmental protection and so on. At present, the spot copper concentrate TC, sulfuric acid price is low, cold material shortage and other problems, from the investigation has not had much impact on the copper smelter, SMM conventional research of recycled copper smelter has not shown signs of production decline. Most smelters say that once capacity is cut or shut down, the damage is likely to be scarier than the contraction and loss of profits, so they are unlikely to make such a decision easily.
In July, although the output of some smelters will still be affected by maintenance, it has been greatly reduced compared with the second quarter. Yunnan tin industry, Baiyin Nonferrous Metal, Tongling Olympic Furnace, Fuye Group and so on. According to the production schedule, SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to be 747100 tons in July, an increase of 2.93 percent over the same period last year, and a cumulative output of 5.0223 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 percent from the same period last year.
In June (31 days), China's alumina (metallurgical grade) output was 5.762 million tons, with an annualized operating capacity of 70.107 million tons and an average daily output of 192000 tons. In terms of month-on-month increment in June, alumina enterprises such as Bosai Shuijiang, Chinalco Huaxing, Xinghua Science and Technology, Chinalco Mining Industry, SPIC Shanxi, Liu Lin Senze and other alumina enterprises all increased; the reduction was mainly concentrated in Jiaokou Xinfa, Jinzhong Hope and other enterprises. In June, the output of non-metallurgical alumina was 246000 tons, and the total annual operation capacity of alumina plants was 73.097 million tons.
In July (31 days), Jinzhong hopes that the operating capacity will rise somewhat, and the Bosai Shuijiang River will continue to contribute to the increment, but some enterprises that have taken measures to exceed production, such as removal of solid content, driven by high prices in June, will return to normal production. SMM expects metallurgical alumina production to be 5.943 million tons in July, an increase of 0.55 percent over the same period last year, and the average daily output will be basically the same as June.
In June (30 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 2.933 million tons, down 2.91 percent from the same period last year, and the total domestic electrolytic aluminum output from January to June 2019 was 17.497 million tons, down 1.6 percent from the same period last year. The increase in June mainly came from Suyuan second Branch of Baishan Mine, Yunnan Aluminum Zhaotong Haixin Aluminum Industry, Shanxi Zhongrun and other enterprises, and the reduction mainly came from Northeast China, Guangxi Xinfa and Henan Shenhuo. By the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum effective production capacity was 40.298 million tons, the operating capacity was 36.48 million tons, the start-up rate was 90.5 percent, and the month-on-month ratio was basically the same. In July (31 days), the increment mainly came from the release of new production capacity such as Shanxi Zhongrun and Mengtai Aluminum and the resumption of production in Weiqiao, and the reduction mainly came from the northeast region. SMM expects electrolytic aluminum production to be 3.025 million tons in July, down 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Generally speaking, under the background of low aluminum price, the willingness and speed of new and resumed production capacity are low.
In June 2019, China's primary lead production was 220000 tons, down 12.69 percent from the previous month and 7.07 percent from the same period last year. From January to June 2019, primary lead production was 1.488 million tons, an increase of 3.77 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative growth rate slowed.
According to SMM research, in June, the maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises was concentrated, and most of them were medium and large enterprises, and their output had a greater impact; at the same time, in late June, Henan and other places were aggravated by the influence of heavy pollution weather, and the leading Group Office of Jiyuan Municipal pollution Prevention and Control War issued a notice on further strengthening air pollution control in June, with a control period from now until July 10, 2019. In response to environmental control, and taking into account equipment problems, Henan Yuguang and Minshan have entered maintenance one after another, expanding the decline in lead production in the current month, so the decline in output is slightly greater than the expected value of the previous report.
In addition, compared with the same period last year, in June 2018, the Central Environmental Protection Supervision team launched a month-long "look back" work in Henan, Hunan, Yunnan, and the Jiyuan area of Henan Province imposed a production limit of 30 to 50 percent on key enterprises on moderately and slightly polluted weather, and refinery production was generally restricted. This year, the central government issued a document banning one-size-fits-all behavior and centralized shutdown, coupled with the improvement of the environmental protection level of major enterprises, the impact of environmental protection on the lead industry has declined compared with last year.
Looking forward to July, according to SMM, with Hunan Jingui, Chifengshan gold, silver and lead, western mining, Shandong Hengbang and other enterprises have ended one after another, but due to the downturn in the lead market, refinery production is positive and limited, some enterprises do not consider full production for the time being. In addition, Henan Yuguang, Minshan and other repairs run through June-July, and most of the output has increased or decreased in July. SMM expects primary lead production to rise only slightly to 226000 tons in July.
In June 2019, SMM China produced 496200 tons of refined zinc, an increase of 3.34 percent over the previous month and an increase of 15.37 percent over the same period last year. The SMM survey sample has a production capacity of 6.085 million tons.
In June, the refinery in the environmental protection, relocation and other gradual end, high profits to stimulate production enthusiasm, the superimposed part of the furnace taste to increase production and other factors, the output continues to increase compared with the previous month.
In June, the reduction of refineries was mainly due to the addition of routine maintenance in Anhui Tongguan, the shutdown of mining and metallurgy in Chengzhou all month, and the reduction in the output of some refineries in Yunnan Province of Chihong Zinc and Germanium. But the increment is more prominent. Among them, after the relocation of Zhuzhou smelting and the further solution of the environmental protection problems of Hanzhong zinc industry, the output gradually increased; in addition, after the maintenance of zinc and germanium in the western mining industry, the production resumed; and some refining enterprises have the current high profit, the small increase in output and the improvement of taste in the furnace, the overall increment is relatively obvious.
In July, the summer routine maintenance of some refineries in the north began one after another, Henan Yuguang and medium-color zinc industry entered the maintenance state; another Chengzhou mining and metallurgy may still be difficult to recover, there is a partial reduction. However, Zhuzhou smelting is expected to reach production, Chihong zinc and germanium production recovery, Anhui copper crown maintenance end and Sihuan zinc and germanium production further increased, the increase is expected to be still more in July, 2.41% to 508200 tons compared with the previous month.
In June 2019, the national natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 12600 tons, an increase of 5.82 per cent over the same period last year. The national electrolytic nickel production in June was 2.56% lower than that in May. The production of electrolytic nickel remained normal in June. According to a preliminary investigation by SMM, individual smelters carried out annual maintenance in July, or lasted for 2 months, and the monthly output was affected.
About 900 to 1000 tons. In addition, smelters that previously suspended electrolytic nickel production converted 1000 tons of nickel sulfate into electrolytic nickel due to poor demand for nickel sulfate, which is expected to produce in mid-and early July. Taken together, production in July is expected to fall by about 1.83 per cent from June to 12300 tons.
Nickel pig iron
In June, the national nickel pig iron increased by 3.44 per cent to 49500 nickel tons, an increase of 51.93 per cent over the same period last year. On the one hand, the year-on-year increase was due to the release of new production capacity this year; on the other hand, it was also due to large-scale production cuts in factories due to the impact of environmental protection from June to July last year. In terms of taste, the output of high nickel pig iron increased by 2.87 percent to 42200 nickel tons in June compared with May. Although the output of large factories in Shandong continued to be released, the increase and reduction in Shandong was basically offset by environmental protection. The increase in June mainly came from three aspects: first, the recovery of maintenance plants in May, second, the increase in the operating rate of some factories, and third, the release of some new production capacity. Production of low nickel pig iron increased by 6.91 per cent to 7300 nickel tons in June, mainly due to the end of maintenance at the North Steel Plant in late May and the resumption of production at the East China Plant, which partly offset the reduction caused by maintenance at the South Steel Plant.
National nickel pig iron production is expected to increase by 5.37 per cent to 52100 nickel tons in July compared with the previous month, of which high nickel pig iron production increased by 5.93 per cent to 44700 nickel tons, with fewer factory repairs in July and no environmental incidents have been heard yet. Production of low nickel pig iron is expected to increase by 2.11 per cent to 7400 nickel tons over June, mainly due to the increase caused by the end of maintenance at the Southern Steel Plant.
In June, China produced 10263 tons of nickel sulfate, with a physical output of 46700 tons, down 10.29 percent from the previous month, an increase of 58.14 percent over the same period last year. Due to the decline of subsidies from the new energy vehicle industry, terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the nickel sulfate industry, which is transmitted upstream, has also performed dismal. Battery-grade nickel sulfate sales this month is not optimistic, many enterprises have been reduced in June, production is expected to fall further in July. At the same time, the production of liquid nickel sulfate produced by the precursor integration plant has also been significantly reduced: on the one hand, the production of liquid nickel sulfate from the precursor plant has lost money in the production of liquid nickel sulfate, which will prefer to purchase nickel sulfate directly; on the other hand, due to weak demand for orders, the integrated production line of nickel sulfate-precursor has been reduced as a whole. However, the market demand of electroplating grade nickel sulfate is stable, and the production of each enterprise has not been adjusted. National nickel sulfate production may continue to decline in July, falling 16.93 per cent from the previous month to 38800 tons in kind, equivalent to 8500 tons of metal, falling below 10, 000 tons for the first time since March this year.
Refined tin production in June was 12833 tons, down 6.6 per cent from May. In June, the output of nearly half of the smelters shrunk, and some of the smelters' equipment were overhauled in the summer. In addition, the continuous tight state of raw materials at the mine end affected the production of the smelter. A small amount of production has been reduced in Yunnan due to the maintenance of equipment in individual smelters. Jiangxi and other areas due to equipment maintenance, mine end raw materials for a long time tight and weather affected production has also declined. In July and August, there are still smelters with equipment maintenance plans, coupled with the tight pattern of raw materials has not improved, the output is expected to be 12000 tons in July.
Production of metal products in June 2019
1. The value with * is the modified value, and the value of italics is the predicted value.
2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.
1) Research methods
SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regular monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and based on this to issue a report on China's metal production.
In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage ratio of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the production capacity scale, regional distribution, enterprise nature and other detailed factors to reasonably select and distribute the sample, so that each itemized data is representative.
The production data include last month's output (initial value), the previous month's output (revised value) and the forecast for the current month's production. In general, SMM rarely modifies the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.
By the 10th of each month, it will be released through official channels such as SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat Subscription account (Today Nonferrous), Mobile phone Station (m.smm.cn) and so on.
2) sample introduction
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