[review and Prospect]:
Spot: as of Friday, the national average price of hot coil is 3813 yuan / ton, down 21 yuan / ton from 3834 yuan / ton last week.
Futures: as of Friday, the national settlement price of hot volume was 3709 yuan / ton, up 69 yuan / ton from 3640 yuan / ton last week.
Review this week: review the current price of this week's hot paper to continue the trend of differentiation last week.
Futures: after Monday's sharp decline, the current base spread continued to shrink (as of Friday, the current base difference was 104 yuan / ton). But the futures market has risen sharply since Tuesday because of a positive news boost (a phone call between Chinese and US heads of state may improve trade relations between China and the US). Today, due to the expansion of the scope of production restrictions under the environmental protection policy, the increase in hot volume futures has been further increased.
Spot: also after the sharp decline at the beginning of the week, although driven by the futures market gradually picked up, but due to weak rigid demand, the spot price increase is difficult to make up for the previous decline, the whole is still weak.
Spot outlook: combined with downstream macro data analysis, the fundamental performance is still weak, demand is likely to remain weak. In addition, although some steel mills have revealed the willingness to overhaul, but the impact of specific implementation is more difficult to reflect in the short term. Therefore, the overall pattern of supply and demand may continue to be maintained next week. However, due to the recent strict environmental protection and regional expansion, the later may lead to some reduction in the supply side, so spot prices do not need to be too pessimistic, the overall probability is expected to show a strong trend of shock. In addition, due to the differences in regional shipments and traders' mentality, the trend of spot prices in different markets may be differentiated. Among them,
Shanghai market: the late arrival of resources may be reduced due to the widening price gap between Shanghai and the two places, coupled with the current transactions are mainly speculative trade, terminal rigid demand is still weak, so the spot price in this market is expected to continue to fluctuate.
Tianjin market: according to research feedback, the arrival of resources in the market will remain low next week, coupled with the shortage of specifications on the market, so the overall supply is less. However, due to the current diversion of terminal demand to the Tangshan market, if the spot price of Tangshan and other places does not rise due to environmental restrictions, it will be difficult for the spot price to change greatly.
Lecong Market: the arrival of resources has been restored one after another this week, and due to the opening of the price difference with the Shanghai market, the willingness of steel mills to put in the market is gradually reflected, so the arrival of goods in the later stage of the market may continue to increase, and the spot price in this market is expected to be under pressure.
1. Supply side: there is still pressure on orders in July after the steel mill price reduction, and the supply is expected to be reduced in the later period.
According to the research feedback of SMM steel mill, a number of steel mills have issued the price adjustment policy in July since June, and the price of hot rolled products has been reduced by 50 to 100 yuan / ton as a whole. Try to shift the risk of weak demand in this way. However, judging from the performance of the terminal, it does not seem to play a stimulating role. In addition, some steel mills said there was still pressure on orders in July, which was on the verge of profit and loss with the current production and marketing of hot rolling mills (profit of 1133 yuan per ton in the same period last year, and current profit of 70 to 80 yuan per ton). Therefore, in this case, the steel mill said that at a later stage, it may come up with a "brake mace"-maintenance, in order to implement price reduction and reduction in a synchronous way to ensure that it can safely survive the period of thin profits and the off-season of demand. Therefore, it is expected that the supply is expected to be reduced in the later period.
2. Demand side: the performance of downstream fundamentals is weak, and it is difficult to change the trend of weak demand.
Automobile aspect: although the new energy vehicle is good news recently, but because the new energy vehicle accounts for the whole automobile market is relatively low, therefore it is difficult to boost the overall automobile market. In addition, affected by the switch from "country five" to "country six" policy, consumers generally have a wait-and-see mood.
Infrastructure: although the policy guidance of the "Circular on the issuance of Special Local Government Bonds and supporting financing of projects" issued in June, the main focus is on infrastructure. However, the specific landing of the good news requires a certain period of time, coupled with the greater demand for building materials for infrastructure projects, so the boost to plate demand has not played a greater role.
Machinery: according to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics in May 2019 sold a total of 18897 excavators of all types, down 2.15 per cent from the same period last year. Sales in the domestic market were 16744, down 5.88 per cent from a year earlier.
Therefore, on the whole, it is difficult to improve demand in the short term, and it is expected that the trend of weakness will continue in the later period.
Although the inventory showed a double increase trend this week, but the social database growth slowed down significantly, so there is no significant change in the total inventory growth.
In terms of treasury: this week, the total inventory of hot rolls nationwide was 3.1387 million tons, a month-on-month ratio of + 1.7 per cent and a year-on-year ratio of + 3.1 per cent. Among them,
Steel plant inventory: this week's hot rolling mill warehouse of 905800 tons, month-on-month ratio of + 2.0%, year-on-year-9.4%.
Social inventory: hot rolled this week 2.2329 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 1.5 per cent, year-on-year + 9.3 per cent.
[macro and policy aspects]
1. A new round of 300 billion fee reduction is just around the corner.
Starting from July 1, a package of fee reduction measures, including reducing administrative unit fees, is expected to reduce the burden on enterprises and the masses by more than 300 billion yuan for the whole year. This round of new fee reduction measures include reducing the registration fees for real estate ownership of garages and parking spaces from 550 yuan to 80 yuan per unit, and halving the collection standards of the National Fund for the Construction of Major Water Conservancy projects and the Civil Aviation Development Fund. reduce the average electricity price for general industry and commerce, lower the freight rate for floating railway cargo, reduce port charges, and so on. In terms of electricity price reduction, so far, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued two batches of measures to reduce electricity prices for general industry and commerce, the first batch of which will be implemented on April 1, and the second batch of four measures will be formally implemented on July 1. After the implementation of the two batches of price reduction measures, the target of reducing the electricity price of general industry and commerce by 10% as set out in this year's government work report can be achieved. The beneficiary industries that benefit from the reduction of electricity prices are mainly traditional high-energy-consuming enterprises. Considering the high energy intensity of electric power, most of them are heavy industrial sectors, and their products are mainly used for capital formation. As a result, lower electricity prices are generally good for stimulating investment.
two。 Major policy support for manufacturing investment
Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said a few days ago that it will promote the sustained and healthy development of the manufacturing industry. In supporting the investment in the manufacturing industry, specific measures include speeding up the construction of major scientific and technological infrastructure, building the birthplace of strategic emerging industries, cultivating world-class advanced manufacturing clusters, implementing fiscal, taxation and financial policies, deepening the reform of the stock issuance system, and perfecting the relevant institutional arrangements for Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is necessary to create an environment for fair competition in terms of market access, examination and approval, bidding and bidding, further deepen the reform of "release management and service" in the field of investment, and promote the reform of the commitment system for investment projects. Many places are targeting high-end manufacturing to accelerate policy and investment deployment. For example, Guangdong plans to increase the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry on the west bank of the Pearl River by 6.5% and investment by 7.5% in 2019, and to introduce 270 new equipment manufacturing projects with an investment of more than 100 million yuan. Hubei strives to invest more than 10 trillion yuan in advanced manufacturing reserve projects in the province within five years.
3. National Development and Reform Commission: the bright spots of China's economic development are full of resilience.
The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference to analyze and interpret the economic data of the current economic operation in May. Meng Wei, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said: in order to optimize the consumption environment, the next step of the NDRC will mainly promote two major tasks: one is to guide local governments to remove institutional barriers to restricting consumption, including banning new car purchase restrictions everywhere. Local governments that have implemented car purchase restrictions should speed up the shift from restricted purchases to guided use according to the effectiveness of urban traffic congestion, pollution control and traffic demand control. Second, improve the hardware and software infrastructure of household consumption, so that consumers can facilitate consumption and rest assured that consumption. In the manufacturing sector, the next step will be to implement fiscal, taxation and financial policies. The policy of reducing VAT tax rate and industrial electricity price will benefit manufacturing enterprises and implement the policy of reducing social insurance rates.
[summary of major events]
1. Tianjin Environment Bureau reported that 5 iron and steel companies are suspected of environmental violations.
Tianjin Environmental Administrative Law Enforcement team conducted surprise night checks on some iron and steel enterprises and found that five enterprises were suspected of environmental violations. They are: Tianjin Metallurgical Group Rolling three Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Tianjin Tianfeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Tianjin Steel Pipe Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Tianjin Tianzhong Jiangtian heavy Industry Co., Ltd and Tianjin Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd.
2. The inventory of the new house will go to disaster! Inventory soared 60% in Beijing compared with the same period last year
On June 19, Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released the inventory report of 100 cities in China in May. According to the data, by the end of May 2019, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 100 cities monitored by Yi Ju Research Institute was 450.05 million square meters, down 0.5 percent from the previous month and 5.4 per cent higher than the same period last year. Of these, Beijing's inventory is about 9.27 million square meters, up 60 per cent from a year earlier. Specifically, the total inventory of new commercial housing in the first, second and third and fourth lines was 2805, 22131 and 200.69 million square meters, respectively, with month-on-month growth rates of-2.5,-0.1 and-0.6 per cent, respectively, and year-on-year growth rates of 33.6, 0.3 and 8.2 per cent, respectively.
3. 618 detonating the sale of household appliances, carnival and energy-saving products are expected to increase the intensity of benefiting the people.
Starting from 0: 00 on June 18, SUNING air conditioning full-channel sales broke 100 million in 8 seconds, Tmall platform small household appliances sales broke 100 million in 1 minute, JD.com household appliances 2 minutes and 36 seconds overall turnover broke the 1 billion mark. Some analysts believe that the hot consumption of 618 household appliances is only a microcosm of the potential release of the consumer market. According to the calculation of the National Development and Reform Commission, with reference to the last round of subsidy policy of "energy-saving products benefiting the people," if we popularize energy-saving subsidies throughout the country, it is estimated that between 2019 and 2021, we will be able to increase the sales of 150 million high-efficiency and energy-saving smart home appliances and boost consumption by about 700 billion yuan. Recently, the NDRC also made it clear that efforts are being made to open up recycling links to make consumers more willing to eliminate old products and upgrade consumption. In addition, the official issuance of 5G business license will also stimulate new consumer demand, HDTV, smart home appliances and other products and mobile phones and other electronic products consumption is expected to grow rapidly.
The performance of the heavy truck market in April and May is still not satisfactory.
According to production and marketing data released by the China Automobile Association, in May 2019, China's heavy truck market sold a total of 108300 models of various types, down 8.84 percent from the previous month and 4.68 percent from the same period last year. Failed to exceed the record high of 113600 vehicles in the same period last year. It is worth noting that since April, the heavy truck market has suffered a series of setbacks, and suffered the first consecutive decline this year. Heavy truck industry insiders believe that the decline in heavy truck sales in April and May is a clear signal, and the decline in the heavy truck market is expected to expand further in the second half of the year.
5. Local governments continue to make efforts to stabilize growth and push forward trillions of yuan investment plans for major projects.
In the run-up to the middle of the year, the pace of steady local growth has become even faster. Major project construction is still seen as a strong grasp of steady growth, Guangxi, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan and other provinces have issued a new batch of key project construction plans, involving trillions of yuan. It mainly includes traditional transportation, energy, 5G commercial, artificial intelligence and other new technology as the main direction of infrastructure.
Guangxi: issued the second batch of major projects at the autonomous region level, involving 178 projects, with a total investment of 301.87 billion yuan.
Guizhou: the Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the second batch of major private investment projects in 2019, with a total investment of 151.524 billion yuan.
Anhui: Anhui Province recently issued a major provincial dispatching project plan for 2019, with a total investment of 1.1 trillion yuan.
Liaoning: the Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Liaoning Provincial General Airport layout Plan (2018-2025)" Plan "pointed out that by 2025, the province's new layout of 28 general airports, the total number of general airports reached 41.
Chongqing: speed up the construction of external channels, in accordance with the goal of "five years of full construction, 10 years of completion", focusing on the construction of 10 high-speed rail channels in the eight directions of Chengdu, Lanzhou, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Guiyang and Kunming. Construction of Lanzhou-Chongqing high-speed railway, Chongqing-Guizhou railway, high-speed rail along the Yangtze River, freight rail and other major transportation arteries.
6. Light truck market sales began to decline, light truck enterprises in the second half of the year may be difficult to start
In May 2019, the high-performing light truck market in the commercial vehicle market also began to show a decline in sales. In May, the domestic truck market sold a total of 316400 units, down 9.9 percent from the same period last year, while heavy, medium, light and micro fell 4.7, 50.8, 8.0 and 11.6 percent, respectively. Truck market segments all suffered a decline. Under the background of the overall downward trend of the automobile market, the light truck market is affected by the intensification of competition in the industry and the increase of external pressure. In the second half of 2019, light truck enterprises may have a difficult start.
7. Issue the "implementation Plan for winning the Battle of the Blue Sky in 2019"
Changchun area: strict environmental access management is required, and the environmental impact assessment of new, revamped, expanded iron and steel, petrochemical, chemical, coking, building materials, non-ferrous metals and other projects should meet the requirements of regional and planned environmental impact assessment. (strict environmental access management, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity and resolve excess capacity, deepen the control of industrial pollution, and so on.
Gansu area: speed up the relocation, transformation or closure of heavily polluting enterprises in urban areas, and promote the relocation of a number of heavily polluting enterprises, such as cement, flat glass, iron and steel, coking, chemical industry, etc. We will strictly control access to new projects, strictly control new production capacity in industries with high energy consumption and high pollution, strictly implement the policy of reducing and replacing industries with serious overcapacity, and speed up the elimination of backward capacity and the reduction of excess capacity.
Tangshan area: on the afternoon of June 13, the Tangshan Ecological Office openly interviewed "gunpoint" enterprises and enterprises that did not implement emission reduction controls at the conference center of the municipal government. On the afternoon of June 15, the responsible persons of nine polluting enterprises, including Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Jing'an Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Chunxing Special Steel, Donghai Special Steel, Rongfeng Coking, HSBC Coking, Yannan cement and Black Cat carbon Black, made a public commitment to "actively cooperate with the municipal government to do a good job in environmental protection" and vowed to contribute to winning the Blue Sky Defense War and the 100-day battle.
8. Flood disasters occur in many places, and the risk level of torrential rain and waterlogging in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China is expected to be high next week, and the risk level of rainstorm and flood disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China is expected to be high next week. Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, 54 cities, prefectures, 313counties and cities have been affected by this round of rainstorm and flood disasters, and this round of rainstorm floods has affected 6.14 million people in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou. The direct economic loss was 20.13 billion yuan. It is expected that the risk level of rainstorm and flood disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China is high next week. From 16th to 19th, the rainfall area is mainly located in Guizhou, western South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. From the 20th to the 25th, the rain belt will be moved south from the Yangtze River Basin to the south-central part of the Yangtze River, and the rainfall area will be mainly located in the south of the Yangtze River.
9. Car sales continue to decline
According to the China Association of Automobile Industries, in May, domestic car production and sales completed 1.8483 million and 1.9126 million vehicles respectively, down 9.93% and 3.43% respectively from the previous month, and 21.16% and 16.4% respectively from the same score. Of these, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 112100 and 104400 respectively, an increase of 16.91 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively. In addition, new energy vehicles, which have been growing against the trend, have also hit the brakes at an all-time low. Sales growth slowed mainly because a large number of consumers bought new energy vehicles ahead of the end of the new energy subsidy transition period in 2019. At the same time, most bus enterprises have also chosen to speed up vehicle sales before subsidizing the retreat.
10. Property market transactions continue to be weak
The cooling continued in the first half of June, when the turnover of second-hand houses in 10 cities fell 7.5% from a year earlier. Property transactions in some Chinese cities continued to decline in the first half of June, on the basis of a multi-area adjustment and control of property sales in May and a drop in the property market in the first half of June. In the first half of June, the turnover of second-hand houses in 10 cities, including Beijing, Suzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing and Shenzhen, totaled 32071 units, down 7.5 percent from the same period in 2018.
11. Shanxi: 82 coal mines ordered to stop production and construction in accordance with the law
Shanxi coal mine safety supervision and law enforcement continues to maintain a high-pressure situation. The reporter learned from the Shanxi Provincial Emergency Management Office that from January to May, 82 coal mines were ordered to stop production and construction in accordance with the law, accounting for 8.3 percent of the total number of coal mines in Shanxi Province.
twelve。 Luliang City issues notice on the implementation of wrong Peak production and production restriction for some Enterprises around the Urban area
Recently, Luliang City issued a "notice on the implementation of wrong peak production and production restrictions for some enterprises around the urban area," which requires all asphalt projects in Luliang City and Zhou Bin, as well as local iron and steel, coking and other key industries to implement wrong peak production or production restriction measures. The contents of the specific documents are as follows: 1. Luliang urban area and all surrounding pavement asphalt projects should take wrong peak operation, the wrong peak operation time is 20:00 every night to 8 am the next day, the wrong peak operation time shall not be carried out outside the wrong peak operation time. 2. Luliang Lishi District Changsheng New material Factory, Luliang Xinchen Building Materials Co., Ltd., Luliang Lishi District Hengye New Building Materials Co., Ltd., three enterprises implement wrong peak production, the wrong peak production time is June 25 to July 25, 2019, the enterprise stopped production. 3. Shanxi Datuhe Coking Co., Ltd. implemented measures to limit production and emission reduction, extending the coking time to 48 hours, and the production limit was from June 25 to August 25, 2019. Luliang Yaolong Coal and Coke Iron Co., Ltd. implemented measures to limit production and emission reduction, limiting production by 50% for the period from June 25 to August 25, 2019.
13. Wu'an City issues Emergency Circular on strengthening Emergency Control measures for Air pollution
On the 21st, the Office of the leading Group for the Prevention and Control of Air pollution in Wu'an City issued an Emergency Circular on the implementation of enhanced Emergency Control measures in key areas. The Circular shows that the situation of the atmospheric environment in our city has been extremely severe since June. In order to ensure the air quality of our city and reverse the passive situation as soon as possible, with the consent of the municipal government, from 00: 00 on June 22 to 24:00 on June 30, 2019, strengthen emergency control measures will be implemented in the main urban area and the surrounding key areas, as follows: first, the scope of control and control, Wuan Town, Industrial Park, Beianzhuang Township, Kanger Town, Datong Town, Wu Ji Town, Shangtuan Urban and Rural areas, Xitushan Township 8 township administrative jurisdiction. II. Implementation time, from 0:00 on 22 June 2019 to 24:00 on 30 June 2019. 3. Measures related to the implementation of the iron and steel industry: 1. Xinjin Iron and Steel, Mingfang Iron and Steel, Wen'an Iron and Steel, Wenfeng Iron and Steel (excluding the Western District), all sintering machines in four iron and steel enterprises are in place from 0:00 on June 22 to 24: 00 on June 24, and from 0:00 on June 28 to 24-00 on June 30. Other production equipment shall be implemented in strict accordance with the differential control measures in the second quarter. 2. The coalification of Yuzhou within the jurisdiction. Jinpeng Coking two coking enterprises all extended the coking time to more than 36 hours.