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[SMM weekly carding]: the spot price on the supply side will fluctuate weakly next week.
Jun 14,2019 18:05CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[review and Prospect]:

Spot: as of Friday, the national average price of hot rolls was 3835.3 yuan / ton, down 19.9 yuan / ton from 3855.2 yuan / ton last Thursday.

Futures: as of Friday, the national settlement price of hot volume was 3640 yuan / ton, up 71 yuan / ton from 3569 yuan / ton on Friday.

This week's hot roll period is now divided, spot decline month-on-month contraction, futures reversal rose more.

Spot outlook:

Spot prices are mixed this week, mainly due to the rise of the black disk at the beginning of the week, driving a slight pick-up in market sentiment, the release of terminal procurement demand, so traders homeopathic prices. However, because the rigid demand of the terminal has been weak since April, it is difficult to support the spot price under the condition of continuous arrival of goods in the market. In addition, according to steel mill research feedback, recently issued to strengthen air pollution control and control of a number of steel mills in Tangshan and other places to stop production, the scope of impact on steel mills is limited, so it is expected that the follow-up spot price trend probability shock is weak, but in the raw material end of the ore price support is limited.



1. Supply side: in June, the production and receiving orders of steel mills are stable, and the supply side is relatively sufficient.

According to SMM this week's survey data feedback:

In January and June, the order situation of steel mills was basically the same as in May, coupled with the increase in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills (89.85% this month and + 0.27% last month), so the supply side of steel mills is more abundant.

2. Although the arrival of goods in each mainstream market has decreased this week (a total of 172000 tons of hot rolled mainstream resources, compared with 204000 tons-32000 tons last week), but mainly due to the production to shipping cycle and the influence of Rain Water weather, belong to irresistible factors, and traders feedback that most of the resources are on the way, so it is expected that the arrival of goods next week will increase.

Therefore, to sum up, the supply side of steel mills is more abundant at present. In addition, although there has recently been news of strengthening the prevention and control of air pollution and ordered many steel mills in Tangshan and other places to stop production, the specific implementation is not yet clear, and according to the current survey feedback, the overall impact is relatively small, so it is expected that there will be no significant change on the supply side in the short term.


2. Demand side: June gradually enters the normal off-season, and is expected to continue the trend of weakness next week.

The downstream macro data show that:

Auto industry: in May, car production was 1.851 million, down 21.5 per cent from a year earlier. Passenger car sales were 1.5612 million, down 17.37 per cent from a year earlier. The inventory coefficient of car dealers is 1.65, up 4% from the same period last year, down 18% from the previous month, and the inventory level is above the warning line.

Home appliance industry: in 2019, affected by the slow development of the global home appliance field, the domestic market is not very active, and some categories have even shown a downward trend (according to the total data of Oviyun (AVC) from January to April 2019, kitchen electricity-16.4%, electric heat-13.6%, burning heat-11.4%, water purifier-0.8%).

Real estate industry: from January to May, the sales area of commercial housing was 555.18 million square meters, down 1.6 percent from the same period last year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the period from January to April. And the real estate development boom index is 100.85, down 0.07 points from April.

Therefore, on the whole, it is difficult to boost downstream terminal demand in the short term, coupled with the gradual entry into the off-season in June, so terminal demand is expected to continue to be weak next week.



This week, the factory warehouse was transferred to the social database, the decline of the factory warehouse increased, and the increase of the social database increased.

Total inventory: the total inventory of hot rolls this week was 3.0867 million tons, a month-on-month ratio of + 2.0 per cent and a year-on-year ratio of + 4.8 per cent. Among them,

Steel plant inventory: this week's hot rolling mill warehouse 887700 tons, month-on-month ratio of-2.8%, compared with the same period last year-6.4%.

Social inventory: hot rolled this week 2.199 million tons, month-on-month + 4.1%, year-on-year + 10.1%.


[macro and policy aspects]

1. The country has sufficient macro policy space and the ability to deal with all kinds of uncertainties.

Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, attended a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Fukuoka, Japan, from June 8 to 9, according to a central bank announcement. At the meeting, Yi Gang expounded his position on China's economic and financial situation, RMB exchange rate, trade issues, and so on. Yi Gang said: China's economic operation is steady and advanced, and the economic fundamentals are good, and the people's Bank of China will keep the growth rate of broad money and social financing basically in line with the nominal GDP growth rate, continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. President Yi Gang stressed that the G20 parties should jointly demonstrate their willingness to cooperate in resolving trade frictions and send a positive signal to the international community. China has plenty of macro policy space, rich policy toolbox and the ability to deal with all kinds of uncertainties.

two。 Circular on the issuance of Special Local Government Bonds and supporting financing of projects issued by the Central Office and the State Office

The circular calls for unwavering efforts to take supply-side structural reform as the main line, adhere to the basic idea of structural deleveraging, and further improve the local government borrowing and financing mechanism in accordance with firm, controllable, orderly, and moderate requirements. We will promote the reform of the management of special bonds, on the basis of significantly increasing the scale of special bonds, strengthen coordination and coordination of macro policies, and maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Do a good job in special bond issuance and project financing to promote economic operation in a reasonable range. For major projects with certain returns and all of which belong to the income of government funds, local governments shall issue special bonds to finance them.


[summary of major events]

1. Starting from next month, the National sixth Emission Standard will be implemented in many places to promote and clear the inventory of the national five cars.

In the "three-year Action Plan to win the Blue Sky Defense War" issued by the State Council in July last year, it was clearly stipulated that the sixth National Emission Standard would be implemented in advance in key areas, the Pearl River Delta region and Chengdu and Chongqing regions starting from July 1 this year. We will promote the use of gas vehicles that meet the sixth emission standards of the country. Recently, many places have announced the implementation of the new policy of switching from country five to country six, that is, starting from July 1 this year, only vehicles that meet the country six emission standards can be licensed. For a while, car dealers in these areas began to step up efforts to promote the national five cars.

2. The "era of big central enterprises" has come one after another. Chinalco, China Merchants and Baowu have made a series of moves.

Recently, Anhui SASAC transferred 51% of the stake in Maanshan Iron and Steel Group to China Baowu Iron and Steel Group for free. At the same time, China Merchants Group has realized the holding of Liaogang Group. The above cases are the reorganization of local state-owned enterprises by central enterprises, which reflects the new trend of the reform of state-owned enterprises. Industry insiders said that a new era of cooperation between the central and local governments has begun, and at the same time, the direction of making the main industry bigger and stronger in the reform of state-owned enterprises has not changed. With regard to a series of new changes in the field of state-owned enterprise reform, the organization even said bluntly that the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to open a new chapter, and 2019 is expected to be the key year for a breakthrough in the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises.

3. Zhejiang Province to promote the "Belt and Road Initiative" Construction Conference signed a project investment of more than 14.3 billion US dollars

The Zhejiang Provincial Conference on promoting the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" was held in Ningbo. The reporter learned from the meeting that the conference successfully signed 20 projects, with a total investment of more than US $14.3 billion. Of these, 9 were foreign-funded projects with a total investment of US $2.4 billion, and 11 were overseas investment projects with a total investment of US $11.9 billion.

The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in April and May is 1.65 and the inventory level is above the warning line.

According to a survey released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in May was 1.65, up 4% from a year earlier, down 18% from the previous month, and the inventory level was above the warning line. The China Automobile Circulation Association said that under the influence of the country's five countries and six switching policies, dealers are under increased pressure to clear warehouses and enter cars more cautiously. As the car market entered the off-season in June, the pressure on dealers increased further.

5. Tianjin supports the construction of planning and design, ecological protection and port logistics in Xiongan New District.

Tianjin actively docking Xiongan New District, fully support its planning and design, ecological protection, port logistics and other areas of construction. Sun Hujun, deputy director of the Tianjin Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said that Tianjin will fully implement the Tianjin-Hebei strategic cooperation agreement on actively promoting the construction and development of Xiongan New District, as well as the new round of strategic cooperation agreements between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. We will deepen coordination in planning and construction, industry, ecology and public services, and promote the sharing of talent, technology and other resources.

6. Baosteel shares cut the ex-factory prices of some products in July

Baosteel shares cut the ex-factory prices of some products in July: thick plate, cold rolling, pickling and other base prices remain unchanged, hot rolling, color coating, non-oriented electrical steel and other non-tax reduction of 100 yuan / ton.

7. The first phase of the 2 million ton cold rolling project of Tangshan Port and Land Iron and Steel was put into production smoothly.

On the morning of June 10, the first phase of the 2 million ton cold rolling project of Tangshan Port and Land Cold Rolling Co., Ltd. was officially put into production. The first phase of the total investment of 1.45 billion yuan, the construction of 1.2 million tons of acid continuous rolling production line and ancillary facilities, the overall design of the project and major equipment are the use of domestic and foreign industry leading technology and high-end configuration.

8. Passenger Federation: retail sales of broad passenger cars in May 1.61 million units

Sales of narrow passenger cars were about 1.582 million in May, up 4.8 per cent from a month earlier and down 12.5 per cent from a year earlier, according to domestic passenger car production and sales figures released by the Federation on June 11. Of these, car sales were about 805000, down 13.2% from a year earlier to about 669000, down 9.6% from a year earlier to about 108000, down 22.9% from a year earlier. Retail sales of broad passenger cars in May were 1.61 million, down 12.5% from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive month of year-on-year decline.

9. Jiangsu Province issues "five Major plans" Special Action Plan to promote the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" intersection Point with High quality

Recently, the Jiangsu provincial government held a press conference to issue the "opinions of the provincial party committee and provincial government on promoting the construction of the" Belt and Road Initiative "intersection point of high quality" and the special action plan to promote the "five major plans." The "opinion" defines the key points and directions for the development of key districts and cities, including supporting Lianyungang to build a strategic fulcrum, Xuzhou to build an important node city, Nanjing to build an important hub city, Nantong to build an important sea gateway, Suzhou and Wuxi to build an international production capacity cooperation demonstration city, and other places to build characteristic cooperation bases, highlight key points, and create characteristics.

10. Shanxi issued a system to deal with the hidden dangers of major accidents in coal mines

From Shanxi Province Emergency Management Office learned that Shanxi recently issued the "notice on the establishment of coal mine major accident management supervision system", the notice requires that coal mine safety supervision departments at all levels to investigate the hidden dangers of major accidents, in accordance with the relevant provisions, immediately ordered the coal mine to stop production, eliminate hidden dangers, and timely issue relevant law enforcement documents to hidden trouble management units.

11. the attack on the tanker pushed up the price of oil. PetroAmerica closed 2.2% higher on Thursday.

Crude oil futures closed higher on Thursday. The attack on two oil tankers off the Iranian coast near the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions in US-Iranian relations and raised concerns about possible disruptions in crude oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for August delivery rose $1.14, or 2.2%, to close at $51.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $53.45 a barrel.

12. the focus of the new round of central ecological and environmental protection inspectors is to "keep a close eye on"

The second round of inspectors is just around the corner. The person in charge said, "will continue to adhere to problem-oriented" is the core key words of the second round of inspectors. In the future work, more emphasis will be placed on the effectiveness of inspectors and attention will be paid to the prevention of environmental pollution and ecological damage from the source. "five close eyes are the focus of the new round of inspectors." Liu Changgen, executive deputy director of the Central Ecological Environmental Protection Inspector's Office, explained that it is necessary to keep a close eye on the implementation of the political responsibility for ecological environmental protection, closely focus on the transformation of the concept and mode of development, closely focus on highlighting the solution of ecological and environmental problems, closely focus on the first round of inspectors and "look back" to find problems to rectify and reform, and closely focus on the long-term mechanism of ecological and environmental protection.

13. Air pollution Prevention and Control in Fengnan District of Tangshan in June

Recently, from the Tangshan Fengnan District Government website learned that in June air pollution prevention and control of iron and steel enterprises stop production list, involving steel enterprises are Ruifeng Iron and Steel, Donghua Iron and Steel, Kaiheng Iron and Steel, Jing'an Iron and Steel, vertical and horizontal iron and steel, Yuefeng Iron and Steel. [SMM Steel]

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