SMM December 20: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on the ground, "Yang Ma" timely comfort, the domestic commodity market is peaceful, afternoon thread, iron ore strong pull to boost the black system. Colored concussion is dominant.
Against the backdrop of turmoil in financial markets and slowing global economic growth, the Fed stood firm at its last meeting of the year to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to between 2.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent. Although it said it might slow down the pace of raising interest rates. But judging from the financial markets, the meeting was not as dovish as expected. The people's Bank of China cut interest rates on the eve of the Fed's rate hike, suggesting that downward macroeconomic pressure remains strong.
Data on weekly jobless claims and leading indicators will be released in the United States today, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will announce interest rate decisions.
In terms of capital flows today
There were 500 million inflows into the futures market today, ending three consecutive days of outflows. More than 1.3 billion funds collectively piled up the black system, in the afternoon thread, iron ore strong pull up behind there is no lack of money to push up. On the other hand, the capital outflow of chemical industry and oil plate is obvious. Although waiting for the capital to enter the market, but the overall position of goods is still declining. Looking back at the changes in positions in the market in recent years, positions are usually reduced to phase lows around National Day holiday, New Year's Day and the Spring Festival. After the market gradually stabilized last week, commodity volatility narrowed and capital flows were not active.
A brief comment by SMM analyst on December 20
Copper: today, the main copper market in Shanghai opened at 48290 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the copper price was basically in a narrow range of 48180 to 48330 yuan / ton, and the amplitude did not exceed 60 yuan / ton. During the period, 48330 yuan / ton was blocked and fell back. Before noon in Asia, Lun Copper went down. Under the drag of short position increase, Shanghai Copper fell sharply from 48230 yuan / ton to an intraday low of 47770 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, some short sellers made a profit and left the market, and copper prices recovered from some of their losses in the morning and rose to 48200 yuan / ton. Copper prices in the last trading at 48120-48270 yuan / ton were consolidated again in a narrow range, with an amplitude of no more than 70 yuan / ton, closing at 48220 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton, down 0.37 per cent. The main position was reduced by 6164 to 200000, and the transaction was reduced by 43262 to 268000. 1901, 1902 contract positions decreased by 11228, 1903, 1904 contract positions increased by 7556. Today, the main copper in Shanghai fell back step by step, and the entity completely fell below Brin's lower rail, and far from all the recent EMA, the green energy column of MACD showed the trend of expansion, and the KDJ tended to converge. At night, pay attention to the dollar index and the trend of short positions, waiting for the guidance of the outside market. In the evening, we will test whether the main entity of Shanghai Copper can continue to hold 48000 yuan per ton.
Aluminum: the Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1902 contract stepped out of the arc track today and jumped as low as 13700 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, a long negative line was recorded and fell below the daily average. Subsequently, the empty Shanghai aluminum fell all the way down to 13605 yuan / ton. Due to the fact that there is still some support below, when the price is low, short sellers lack confidence and begin to reduce their positions and leave the market. Shanghai Aluminum then began to rise low along the 5-day moving average, rising all the way to a high intraday high of 13705 yuan per ton, returning to above the daily average and crowding into the Brin passageway on the track. At the end of the day, it closed at 13690 yuan / ton, up 0 yuan / ton, or 0%. Trading volume increased by 53780 hands to 187000 hands, and position volume increased by 5818 hands to 227000 hands, mainly long positions, recording the Xiaoyang line, with the center of gravity above the 5 / 10 EMA. The daily MACD red line is slightly elongated. In the morning, as a result of the market shock caused by the news of the Fed raising interest rates overnight, Shanghai Aluminum released its volume in the morning and the trend was relatively weak, but due to the ongoing central work meeting today, market rumors may be related to good news, and the market trading atmosphere improved slightly in the afternoon. Non-ferrous disk red and green, Shanghai aluminum closed unchanged from yesterday, is expected to continue to test the 5-day moving average in the evening, continue to pay attention to the release of relevant macro news and the flow of long short funds in the market.
Zinc: Shanghai Zinc main 1902 contract opened at 21020 yuan / ton, long position increased at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc reached 21155 yuan / ton, and Shanghai zinc went down rapidly. After finishing around a narrow range of 20970 yuan / ton, it failed to stand firm and went down again to 20850 yuan / ton. 40-day EMA support appeared, Shanghai zinc then rose, several attempts to test the 60-day EMA failed, around 20960 yuan / ton range shock. Closing down at 20945 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton, or 0.07 percent, from the previous transaction, trading volume increased by 19632 hands to 688000 hands, and position decreased by 11456 hands to 210000 hands. During the day, the Shanghai zinc continued the concussion situation of the multi-channel moving average, closed the shade, and measured the 40-day moving average under the shadow line. The contradiction of domestic supply has not been alleviated for the time being, and the spot rising water is still at a high level, or provides certain support for the zinc price, and supports the bottom of the 40-day moving average at night or at the bottom of the 40-day moving average. Weak, organize and wait for guidance.
Lead: within a day, the Shanghai lead 1902 contract was opened at 18090 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead rose high throughout the day, basically giving up overnight increases. At the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead continued the upward trend of overnight concussion. At one point, it hit 18170 yuan / ton, and later short positions entered the market. Shanghai lead concussion went down. The first line of 18025 yuan / ton stabilized and consolidated, near the end of trading, short-term profit left the market, Shanghai lead rose slightly, and finally closed at 18045 yuan / ton, up 18025 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.67%, and the position increased 2418 hands to 48502 hands. Shanghai lead report on the film Xiaoyang line, the upward power is limited, and the 10-day EMA suppression still exists, it is expected that Shanghai lead at night or in the vicinity of Wanba to continue the consolidation trend.
Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1905 opened at 89850 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, the center of gravity of Shanghai nickel fluctuated over a narrow range of 90100 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the center of gravity of Shanghai nickel moved down, the upper pressure of 90000 yuan / ton gate, continued to fluctuate in a narrow range above the daily average. Near noon close, bulls reduced a large number of positions, Shanghai nickel fell sharply, falling below the three EMA, the bottom of 89210 yuan / ton, below the 89200 yuan / ton barrier support. In the afternoon, short positions reduced long positions, Shanghai nickel concussion again upward, wipe out all the decline before, touch high 90250 yuan / ton after the pressure fell slightly, closed at 90080 yuan / ton. Throughout the day, Shanghai nickel main contract 1905 closed at the small positive line, up 90 yuan per ton, or 0.1 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume was reduced by 163000 hands to 499000 hands, and positions by 19000 hands to 285000 hands. The daily line technology KDJ opens upward, the MACD red column becomes longer. The center of gravity of Shanghai nickel was observed at night and fluctuated around the range of 90000 yuan / ton. In the evening, attention should be paid to the Bank of England's decision on interest rates and the minutes of the meeting, as well as the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of December 15 in the United States (10,000 people).
Tin: yesterday night trading Shanghai tin 1905 contract in the vicinity of 146700 yuan / ton shock, today opened 146640 yuan / ton, from the beginning of the market all the way down, afternoon closing at the intraday low of 145850 yuan / ton, down 780yuan / ton from the previous day's closing price. The number of transactions was 17642, and the number of positions increased by 30978. Today, Shanghai stock market metal ups and downs, Shanghai tin weakened again, the overall shock pattern, the upper resistance of 147500 yuan / ton, below the support of 145000 yuan / ton.