Why Low-grade NPI Rise in February amid Higher Output? SMM Reports

The United States currently operates no domestic nickel smelters, leaving North America entirely reliant on just two remaining pyrometallurgical facilities in Canada. Compounding this critical supply chain vulnerability, a recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace projects that the US will face a massive annual nickel deficit of approximately 741,987 tonnes by 2035. To address this severe shortfall, awaruite (a naturally occurring nickel-iron alloy) is emerging as a strategic solution. Because awaruite concentrate can bypass traditional smelting and be directly converted into nickel sulfate, it is favorably positioned to qualify for the US Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, helping to secure domestic defense and EV battery supply chains.

According to industry reports, the Pipestone XL project in Newfoundland, Canada, is advancing its awaruite (Ni₃Fe) nickel-cobalt deposit to supply the North American defense and energy storage sectors. Awaruite, a naturally occurring, sulfur-free magnetic alloy containing approximately 77% nickel, enables the production of a high-grade ~60% nickel concentrate through simple magnetic separation and flotation. This unique metallurgical profile completely bypasses carbon-intensive pyrometallurgical smelting and early hydrometallurgical stages like high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL).

According to market research, European stainless steel producers successfully lifted prices in March, driven by rising scrap costs, volatile energy prices, and limited import competition. Transaction prices for grade 304 cold-rolled coil reached an 18-month high as all European producers implemented month-on-month increases. Domestic mills are seeing improved order books, with lead times now extending into June and some delivery delays reported, particularly for ferritic materials. Producers are targeting further increases for July production, with some offers for grade 304 cold-rolled sheet already around $2,916/mt (EUR 2,700). Market participants note that mills aim for a target selling price of approximately $3,240/mt (EUR 3,000) in the coming months.