Supply surge weighs on prices of high-grade NPI

"Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries**

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

SHFE nickel performed well last week.

According to a report from the Financial Times, a senior government official in Indonesia stated that the country will continue to push forward with its plan to expand nickel production, despite oversupply forcing competitors to close nickel mines. The country's goal is to keep nickel prices low and safeguard the long-term demand for this crucial metal in electric vehicle batteries.

As of last Friday, the average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax), down 3.2 yuan/mtu WoW. Supply side, even though the approved nickel ore quota is increasing, it still takes time for the nickel ore to move from the mine to the smelter. As a result, the current operating rate of NPI producers remains low. Stainless steel and stainless steel scrap prices kept dropping. High-grade NPI is still more cost efficient than stainless steel scrap. The terminal need for stainless steel stayed low, failing to boost the high-grade NPI prices. As a result, it causes a build-up in inventory and is expected to keep NPI prices low.

SMM March 18th: On March 18th, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 142,030 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 139,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 50,346 lots in volume and an increase in open interest of 2,737 lots...

It is estimated that China’s NPI output in March 2024 will be 25,900 in nickel content, down 0.92% MoM. According to SMM research, most domestic producers suffered losses, and some cut productions in February, and may suspend production in March.

Nickel prices continued to rise last week because the approval of nickel ore mining quotas in Indonesia under RKAB was slower than anticipated.

SMM News on March 4th: During the trading session on March 4th, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 135,500 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 136,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading during the session was stronger compared to the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume of 54,103 lots and a decrease in open interest of 1,575 lots.

Metals market: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. Shanghai nickel rose 4.1%, and Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai tin fell 1.17%. Shanghai copper, Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead all rose within 0.3%. The main alumina futures rose 2.08%. The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.6%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 2.72%. The black series is mostly red, and the iron ore rose 0.89%. Thread and hot coil rose slightly, and stainless steel rose 1.34%. In terms of double coke, coking coal fell 0.31% and coke fell 0.21%. In terms of external metals, as of 11:42, LME metals were mixed. London zinc and London nickel rose slightly, London aluminum rose 0.45%, London lead, London tin, and London copper all fell slightly, and the decline was within 0.3%. In terms of precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, and COMEX silver fell 0.04%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of noon close, Shanghai gold fell 0.02%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.42%. Gold prices are set to post weekly gains, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying this week. Conflict in the Middle East has also boosted gold's safe-haven appeal. In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2048 points, up 0.5%