SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (May 7-11)

SHANGHAI, May 7 (SMM) -- Spot aluminum stocks did not increase following the May Day holiday. Due to transportation delays, aluminum stocks dropped in Guangdong. Domestic alumina prices climbed due to rumors of Indonesian export restriction, which in turn helped aluminum prices rebound. The most active SHFE aluminum contract climbed from RMB 16,200/mt up to RMB 16,425/mt, posting gains even as other base metal prices fell, and receiving support from both market fundamentals and capital inflows. While resistance is still felt at the 60-day moving average, strong support was found at RMB 16,300/mt.

Spot aluminum prices climbed by more than RMB 100/mt last week, which has only three trading days due to the May Day holiday, as the light metal headed toward RMB 16,200/mt. Most deals were done at slight discounts over the current-month SHFE aluminum price, however, on account of weak demand and as goods holders and buyers split.

Aluminum market fundamentals are improving in China, in stark contrast to LME aluminum, which is expected to continue struggling at USD 2,100/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract will test resistance at RMB 16,500/mt if longs continue to expand. Spot aluminum has been relatively stable and its low-end price will likely to return to RMB 16,100/mt. Most deals will be made close to current-month SHFE aluminum price, but if SHFE aluminum continues to strengthen, spot aluminum prices could rise above RMB 16,200/mt.