Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

[SMM afternoon comment on zinc in Shanghai: The market premium rose slightly, and the transaction was modest] On the whole, the transactions between traders are mainly dealt with the average price premium today. At the same time, affected by that, the market shipments with the market price decreased, and then some holders held up the price, so that the overall transaction was modest.

Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 119,600 mt as of September 10, down 2,500 mt from September 6 and 4,000 mt from September 3.

Spot premiums in Shanghai rose to 70 yuan/mt on February 18 from zero ahead of CNY due to costs during CNY holidays. However, spot premiums turned into wide discounts as of February 25 as SHFE copper prices surged, which stood at around 250 yuan/mt, a decline of nearly  460%. This signified that investors were selling aggressively to generate cash amid cash flow issues. Downstream inquiries were brisk but sellers refrained from lowering their quotes, with spot discounts stabilising between 150-140 yuan/mt.

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Buying was active in the aluminium physical market on Tuesday February 27 with narrowing spot discounts, SMM learned.

Mainstream products in Shanghai’s tin market were heard trading at 147,500-149,500 yuan/mt on Wednesday January 31, SMM learned.

As per SMM research, this week Shanghai inventories gain an obvious increase of about 10,000 tonnes.