China Al Output Data Analysis in September 2011

SHANGHAI, Oct. 31 (SMM) --
Aluminum:
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), China’s aluminum output during September was 1.58 million mt, up 8.25% YoY, but down slightly MoM. Annualized capacity of September output was 19.24 million mt, up 410,000 mt from August. Aluminum output in September fell slightly, and was in line with SMM’s previous forecast. Inner Mongolia HMHJ Aluminum & Electricity Company, as well as other aluminum producers, failed to bring new capacity online in October as scheduled, so SMM expects aluminum output in October to remain stable near September levels.

Aluminum Semis:
According to the CNIA, China’s output of aluminum semis during September was 2.00 million mt, up 25.24% YoY, but down slightly MoM. Based on SMM survey results and spot market conditions, aluminum semis output has begun to decline, so SMM predicts output will continue to fall in October.