Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to rise, with a significantly expanded increase. The most-traded contract I2509 closed at 733, up 2.45% for the day. Traders actively sold their goods, and speculative trading volume increased. Steel mills purchased as needed, with some locking in profits and increasing purchases.

Based on the data of the total volume of the involved varieties exported to Thailand as a proportion of China's total export volume, the overall proportion fluctuates between 9% and 12%, which is relatively large. In 2025, the trend of the total volume of the involved varieties exported to Thailand is consistent with the trend of the total export volume of the involved varieties. Overall, although this is the first time that Thailand has initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on cold-rolled steel from China, in fact, an anti-dumping investigation on cold-rolled steel products from China was initiated as early as August 2012, followed by a final ruling on a sunset review, and on January 23, 2025, a sunset review case was filed again. According to the timeline, a final ruling on the review may be made in early 2026. Considering that anti-dumping measures have been in place for many years and involve a wider range of products, the actual impact of anti-dumping on the involved varieties has already been reflected in previous years. However, due to the claim by Thai Cold Rolled Steel Sheet Public Company Limited, a domestic producer in Thailand, that Chinese exporters are circumventing anti-dumping duties, an anti-circumvention investigation has been initiated against China again. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total volume of the involved varieties exported from China to Thailand in the first five months of 2025 was 16,300 mt, accounting for 9.39% of China's total export volume of the involved varieties, which has a relatively large overall impact. In extreme cases, this may lead to a decrease of 81,500 mt in China's total export volume in 2026. Data shows that the top five countries in terms of China's export volume of the involved varieties are Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand, and Oman. Thailand ranks high, but compared to the high base of China's total steel exports, this value may be temporarily insignificant and will only affect domestic export varieties. The channel for exporting cold-rolled steel products to Thailand may be further obstructed.

Today, DCE iron ore futures weakened in the morning but surged significantly in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2509 closed at 722.5, up 1.69% for the day. Traders were actively selling their goods. Steel mills' wait-and-see sentiment intensified, with inquiry volumes decreasing compared to yesterday.

According to the SMM survey, as of July 1, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide, which mainly produce building materials, was 31.86%, up 0.48% MoM from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 34.31%, up 0.51% MoM; and the daily average production of building materials was 76,400 mt, up 1,100 mt MoM.

Today, DCE Iron Ore futures market was in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 708.5, down 1.32% for the day. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate. Steel mills mainly purchased as needed, with inquiries being average. The market transaction atmosphere was also average.

According to the SMM survey, the impact of construction steel maintenance declined slightly this week (6.28-7.4). Both last week and this week saw steel mills resume production of construction steel rolling lines, resulting in a maintenance impact of 1.2642 million mt for construction steel this week, a slight decrease of 4,700 mt WoW.

Today, DCE Iron Ore futures opened higher and moved downwards after a higher opening, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 715.5, up 0.21% for the day. Traders sold goods according to market conditions. At the beginning of the week, steel mills had a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with some purchasing as needed.

According to the SMM survey, as of June 30, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets, which mainly produce construction materials, was 13.86%, down 7.71 percentage points from the end of May and 7.07 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Analysis]June 13, 2025: The US Department of Commerce announced amendments to Annex 1 of Notice 10896, adding additional Section 232 steel-derived products, such as refrigerator-freezers, dryers, washing machines, dishwashers, stoves/ranges/ovens, kitchen food waste disposers, and welded wire shelving. These products were not previously subject to Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, but starting from June 23, 2025, a 50% tariff will be imposed on them.

Today, Dalian iron ore futures continued to rebound, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 716.5 yuan/mt, up 1.99% for the day. Traders were actively shipping goods. As the weekend approached, purchase willingness of steel mills weakened, but better sales of finished steel in the morning drove some demand growth.