According to Biden's administrative plan, Pfizer will reduce the supply of vaccines; the United States refers to two consecutive days of the weekly line, with silver narrowly exceeding US $24; and Britain tightens travel restrictions to guard against downside risks to sterling.
[global overview]
Biden announces plans for ten days after taking office
Over the weekend, the Biden team unveiled 10-day plans to deal with four major crises in the United States, including the novel coronavirus epidemic, the economic downturn, climate change and racial discrimination. According to government officials, the first day of the executive order focused on mitigating the epidemic and its economic impact, including extending student loans to the end of January, and Biden will launch a "100-day mask challenge" requiring masks to be worn on federal real estate and transportation. Recently, Biden proposed $1.9 trillion in economic stimulus and $1400 in direct cash to citizens, plus $2000 in December.
The US banking sector achieved eye-catching results in the fourth quarter.
After four quarters of US banking, Morgan Chase and Huaqi Group achieved explosive results. Morgan Chase reported a 20% year-on-year increase in trading revenue, including a 32% increase in stock trading revenue. Huaqi Group's share trading revenue increased by 57% on the same basis. Fourth-quarter results are generally the weakest, but figures from the two banks beat expectations, paving the way for strong profits for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley next week.
Pfizer of the United States will reduce the supply of novel coronavirus vaccine to Europe.
It is reported that Pfizer of the United States will reduce the supply of vaccines to the whole of Europe. Pfizer has informed countries around the world that delivery of novel coronavirus vaccine will be reduced in the next three to four weeks because a factory in Belgium needs to be renovated. However, Pfizer said that the purpose of the plant renovation is to increase production capacity from mid-February, which will affect shipments temporarily in the short term, but increase novel coronavirus vaccine capacity in the long run. But many European countries say this is unacceptable because the credibility of the vaccination programme will be threatened.
[market Review]
The dollar index rose for the second week in a row. In the past week, although the data on initial jobless claims and non-farm reports released by the United States were not satisfactory, the dollar index recorded two consecutive weekly gains, up 0.76 percent. The president-elect of the United States announced a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package on Friday. Although Democratic control of both houses of Congress will reduce resistance to passing a bill, it still needs to win Republican support before a bill can be approved. We can focus on the follow-up news of the stimulus package.
Biden will be sworn in as president this week. In addition, we need to note that Biden will be sworn in at the Capitol on the morning of January 20. At present, the Biden transition team has announced its administrative plan for ten days after taking office. These executive orders will focus on solving epidemic, economic, climate, racial equality and other issues. Whether Biden can be sworn in smoothly is important to the market. The stock market did not react much to the congressional riots on January 6th because it was seen as an accident. But if events that are seen as isolated ferment further, it will trigger a shift in market sentiment to a defensive posture.
Gold came under a lot of pressure this morning. Next, let's take a look at gold. The rise of the dollar suppressed the rise in the price of gold. Gold came under heavy pressure this morning, falling below the 1810 mark to hit $1802.74 an ounce before rebounding.
Silver narrowly broke the $24 mark. The trend of silver is similar to that of gold. Silver, which fluctuated mainly around $25 last week, fell to $24.02 an ounce at one point this morning, nearly breaking the $24 mark.
Euro volatility weakens. On the non-US currency side, the euro fell more than 130 points against the dollar last week due to the strength of the dollar. In addition, the epidemic in Europe has also dragged down the euro. Data show that the number of novel coronavirus infection cases in Germany has exceeded 2 million. Against this backdrop, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the existing blockade could be extended until early April.
The pound gave up some of its gains. Let's take a look at the pound. Last week, the pound soared to 1.3711 against the dollar. The UK played down expectations of negative interest rates, greatly supporting the pound. However, the impact of the epidemic on the UK can not be ignored. In the context of the severe epidemic, Britain has stepped up blockade measures. In order to mitigate the economic impact of the third round of epidemic blockade, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak is planning an one-time benefit of £500to nearly 6 million people.
Us oil rose first and then fell. Finally, let's take a look at the oil market. In the past week, the United States rose first and then fell, and finally closed down. The global surge in COVID-19 cases and the relatively slow vaccination process have depressed oil prices. Falling US inventories and rising oil prices could also attract US drillers to resume production.
[risk early warning]
UK tightens travel restrictions to guard against downside risks to sterling
Analysts at FXSTREET pointed out that the UK's November GDP, reported last week, shrank by just 2.6 per cent, a better-than-expected 5.7 per cent contraction. However, industrial output fell 4.7 per cent year-on-year and the merchandise trade balance recorded a deficit of 16.012 billion pounds. In addition, Britain announced tighter travel restrictions on Friday. Technically, although the pound is still above several important support lines, the downside risk of the pound cannot be ignored.
Gold is facing strong selling pressure. Follow-up attention is 1800 US dollars.
The dollar index has risen for the second week in a row, with gold under pressure on the back of a rising dollar. FXSTREET analysts believe that after gold falls below $1820, it is possible to further test the $1800 mark. However, if gold can recover to the $1820 support level and hold that level, gold prices could reverse the bearish outlook.
The global demand for crude oil or the recovery of the oil market will remain strong.
Under the background of vaccine launch and anti-epidemic blockade, oil producers are facing the unprecedented challenge of balancing supply and demand. However, ANZ pointed out that global demand for crude oil will increase by at least 40-5 million barrels a day in mid-2021, which is enough to offset the supply pressure caused by OPEC's increase of 500000 barrels per month. Therefore, until the arrival of summer, the continued strengthening pattern of the oil market will not change fundamentally.
[focus on foresight]
At 00:00 on Tuesday, Yellen may stress that the market determines the exchange rate.
Early tomorrow morning, the U.S. Senate will hold a hearing on Yellen's nomination for Treasury Secretary. According to reports, people familiar with the matter said Ms Yellen was expected to renew her commitment to "market-determined exchange rates" at the meeting, making it clear that the US would not seek a weak dollar to gain a competitive advantage. In other words, it will be up to the market to determine the value of the dollar and other currencies. The market will adjust the exchange rate to reflect changes in economic performance and generally promote the adjustment of the global economy.
In addition, Ms Yellen will strive to use more accurate language to reflect the long-term US exchange rate policy over the past two decades. Analysts believe that this approach indicates that the language of US monetary policy will return to be more prudent.
Taken together, Ms Yellen will reiterate that the exchange rate is determined by the market and will make it clear that the US will not seek a devaluation of the dollar for the sake of competitive advantage. This may support the dollar index to some extent.
There is a good chance that the central bank will stand still at 23:00 on Wednesday.
This week is a super central bank week, and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decisions one after another. Let's take a look at what the Canadian central bank will do on Wednesday. Last month, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate, interest rate forward guidance and bond purchase plan of C $4 billion a week unchanged. Stressed that quantitative easing will continue until the economy begins to recover. In mid-December, Bank of Canada Governor McClham said that the downside risks to the economy are more serious and that more action is needed, possibly lowering the floor of effective interest rates, but the possibility of implementing negative interest rates is very low.
Taken together, we expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.25% and bond purchases unchanged, emphasizing downside risks to the economy and taking more measures if necessary. If the Bank of Canada is more worried about the economic downturn, the Canadian dollar is at risk of coming under pressure.
The Bank of Japan may raise its economic forecast at 11:00 on Thursday
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday morning. Last week, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Kuroda said that Japanese consumer prices fell temporarily and then gradually accelerated the pace of growth. Japan's economy is recovering, but the economic situation is still grim and will increase easing if necessary. Another source said that it is optimistic that the Japanese government's stimulus package will ease the impact of the epidemic on the economy, and the Bank of Japan may slightly revise its economic forecast for the next fiscal year. Based on this, we believe that the Bank of Japan will stand still while raising its economic growth forecast, emphasizing more easing when necessary.
It's hard for the ECB to make a big move at 20:45 on Thursday.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday night. Fearing the rapid spread of the variant virus, European governments announced last week that they would strengthen and extend the anti-epidemic blockade, and vaccination is not expected to have a significant effect until the middle and late spring. This has raised concerns about whether the European economy can recover effectively, but ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the uncertainty of the epidemic had fallen, the economy would rebound and that Europe had all the tools needed to overcome the crisis. She said that as long as the restrictions were lifted by the end of March, the ECB's forecast for an economic rebound this year would remain valid.
At present, it is widely expected that the ECB will leave the three key interest rates unchanged and will not continue to increase its quantitative easing program for the time being. However, given the severe public health situation, the ECB may consider adjusting its monthly anti-epidemic bond purchase program in the future.
In addition, data worth watching this week are:
17:00IEA released its monthly crude oil market report on Tuesday.
Wednesday 15:00 UK December CPI monthly rate:-0.10%.
At 18:00 on Wednesday, the euro area's December CPI monthly rate: previous 0.3%, forecast 0.3%.
Wednesday 21:30 Canada December CPI monthly rate: previous value 0.1%.
Bank of England Governor Pele spoke at 01:00 Thursday.
API crude oil stocks for the week from 05: 30 to January 15: previous value-5.821 million barrels.
The governor of the Bank of Japan, Toshihiko Kuroda, held a press conference at 14: 30 on Thursday.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde held a press conference at 21:30 on Thursday.
The number of initial jobless claims in the week from Thursday 21: 30 to January 16 in the United States: the previous value was 965000.
Friday 07: 30 Japan December core CPI annual rate: previous value-0.9%, forecast value-1.1%.
![[SMM Macro Analysis] Jackson Hole Signals Hawkish Fed, Boosting September Rate Hike Expectations](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
