Positive Market News Driving Pr-Nd Price Increase Amid Medium-to-Long Term Uncertainties【SMM Analysis】

Recent positive signals from the international economic market have significantly impacted the rare earth market, altering the expectations and behavioral patterns of market participants. Driven by these favorable developments, suppliers have quickly raised the quotations for Pr-Nd raw materials. As downstream enterprises had maintained a low-inventory strategy over the medium and long-term during the previous price decline cycle, they were forced to accelerate the pace of restocking after the shift in expectations, further driving up the price of Pr-Nd. Such policy-induced changes in psychological expectations often lead to price fluctuations more rapidly than actual supply-demand changes, particularly in the strategically significant rare earth market.

However, the impact of policies on different rare earth varieties shows a clear divergence. Although praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd), dysprosium, and terbium products are all closely related to NdFeB permanent magnet materials, the strong support from end-use demand such as NEVs has made Pr-Nd prices particularly outstanding amid an already tight supply. In contrast, medium-heavy rare earth oxides like dysprosium oxide, despite temporary support from large manufacturers' procurement, still experience a relatively sluggish overall market trading volume.

It is noteworthy that the current price rebound remains primarily driven by expectations. Although procurement inquiries from end-users have increased, actual transactions have not yet shown a significant increase. Policy adjustments have had a notable short-term stimulating effect on the market, but the medium and long-term price trend still depends on subsequent approvals of actual export licenses and the sustainability of end-use demand. In particular, as end-user enterprises begin formulating strategic plans for 2026, uncertainties arising from policy fluctuations are prompting the industry chain to reassess procurement strategies and inventory management models. Such structural adjustments will have a profound impact on the rare earth market.