PrNd Prices Firm on Supply Gap and Low Inventories, Boosting Bullish Sentiment【SMM Analysis】

SMM December 1: Currently, the price range for Pr-Nd oxide is 595,000-598,000 yuan/mt. Although some suppliers have raised their offers to over 600,000 yuan/mt, inquiries from metal enterprises remain concentrated around 595,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price of Pr-Nd alloy fluctuates between 725,000-735,000 yuan/mt, with most major producers quoting near 735,000 yuan/mt, while magnetic material enterprises tend to purchase at 715,000-720,000 yuan/mt. Notably, compared to earlier levels, the price of Pr-Nd oxide has increased by 30,000 yuan/mt, and that of Pr-Nd alloy has risen by 36,500 yuan/mt. The main driver behind the price movement of Pr-Nd products is concern over undersupply of the oxide.

Affected by China's rare earth production policy, market expectations for a reduction in Pr-Nd oxide supply in December have increased, triggering panic sentiment in the market, which in turn has prompted suppliers to raise their offers, accelerating the upward trend in Pr-Nd oxide prices.

Although recycled Pr-Nd oxide can partially alleviate the supply-demand imbalance, the overall supply of Pr-Nd oxide still faces a significant gap due to the insufficient supply. Additionally, downstream demand remains stable, and coupled with relatively low inventory levels at magnetic material enterprises, multiple large magnetic material enterprises have collectively tendered for Pr-Nd alloy procurement since last week, further intensifying market procurement demand and thereby providing solid support for Pr-Nd market prices.

Additionally, orders for metal enterprises are currently relatively saturated, with some top-tier enterprises having delivery schedules extending into January, indicating a relatively small willingness among metal enterprises to reduce prices for sales in the short term. Supported by oxide costs, Pr-Nd alloy prices have held up quite well. In December, influenced by both supply tightness and stable demand, prices of Pr-Nd-related products are expected to continue holding up well. However, as production activities at raw ore separation enterprises return to normal in January, the supply of Pr-Nd oxide is likely to rebound, which may exert some downward pressure on Pr-Nd product prices.