SMM Metal Production Data for October 2025 Released

Overview of Base Metal Production in October 2025

Copper Cathode

In October, China's copper cathode production, as surveyed by SMM, decreased by 29,400 mt MoM, down 2.62% MoM, but increased 9.63% YoY. The cumulative increase was 11.96%.

Copper cathode production in October fell by 29,400 mt, slightly less than expected, for the following reasons. First, eight smelters underwent maintenance in October, involving a primary smelting capacity of 2.2 million mt; SMM estimates the impact on copper cathode production reached 54,900 mt. Among them, some smelters indicated that purchasing copper anode remained difficult, which amplified the impact on cathode production during the maintenance period. Second, copper prices hit a record high in October, widening the price difference between primary metal and scrap, which slightly eased the tight supply of copper anode. However, the specific implementation details of Document No. 770 remain unclear in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, leading to regional variations in the difficulty of procuring copper anode; some smelters reported that increased supply of copper anode and copper scrap contributed to higher production.

In summary, the operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in October was 81.65%, down 2.41 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the operating rate for large smelters was 83.61%, down 4.59 percentage points MoM; for medium-sized smelters it was 80.26%, up 1.34 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters it was 66.56%, up 6.67 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters primarily using copper concentrates was 85.4%, down 3.1 percentage points MoM; the operating rate for smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode was 63.3%, up 1.0 percentage points MoM.

Entering November, based on SMM's market communication, five smelters are scheduled for maintenance, involving a primary smelting capacity of 1.5 million mt, with an estimated impact of 48,000 mt. It is reported that some maintenance originally planned for October was postponed, meaning its impact will be more apparent in December. However, some enterprises began maintenance in October with a longer duration, and the impact will continue into November and December. Currently, high copper prices have widened the price difference between primary metal and scrap, which benefits the operation of smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode. However, as Document No. 770 remains unclear, this disruption still needs to be factored into the longer-term market outlook.

SMM expects copper cathode production in November to decrease by 4,000 mt MoM, down 0.37% MoM, but increase 8.21% YoY. The cumulative year-to-date increase is 11.62%. Looking ahead to December, production may see some recovery after the concentrated maintenance in October-November; however, record-high copper prices throughout the year have dampened some smelters' willingness to push for additional output by year-end, so December production is expected to see only a slight increase.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in October 2025 (31 days) increased 1.13% YoY and increased 3.52% MoM. The traditional peak season continued in October, and although the October peak season fell slightly short of expectations, the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded more than expected as downstream processing plants near the smelters resumed and ramped up operations. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminum rose 1.4 percentage points MoM to 77.7% this month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, China's aluminum ingot casting volume in September decreased 13.5% YoY and fell 2.6% MoM to around 834,000 mt.

Capacity changes: As of month-end October, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.84 million mt (SMM made revisions by eliminating some double-counted capacity, considering capacity replacement and old plant demolitions), while operating aluminum capacity was about 44.06 million mt, flat from the previous month.

Production forecast: Entering November 2025, winter environmental protection restrictions are expected to impact operations at some enterprises. However, considering that aluminum production cannot immediately drop to zero shortly after potline shutdowns, the production change is expected to be relatively small. Regarding the liquid aluminum ratio, some enterprises reported that end-user demand is expected to weaken next month, and the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to pull back, with the expectation strengthening particularly in the second half of November. Overall, the liquid aluminum ratio is forecast to drop 0.7 percentage points to 77.0%. Subsequent attention should be paid to processing enterprises' orders on hand and the sustainability of demand in sectors like automotive.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in October 2025 (31 days) increased 2.39% MoM and was up 6.79% YoY. By the end of October, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was approximately 110.32 million mt, while actual operating capacity decreased 0.92% MoM, with an operating rate of 83.09%.

Daily average alumina production dropped back slightly this month, mainly influenced by the following factors: In late October, some alumina refineries in north China faced certain production constraints due to routine maintenance of roasting furnaces and tight supply of domestic bauxite ore caused by the rainy season; simultaneously, production also declined as smelting loads decreased in south China. The monthly average alumina price in October approached the industry's average cost line, pushing some high-cost enterprises into losses. However, bound by long-term contract delivery obligations, operational pressure continued to mount, sporadically forcing some northern enterprises to implement production cuts. Overall, due to maintenance and production cuts at some alumina enterprises in October, the industry's overall operating rate dipped slightly compared to the previous month but remained at a relatively high level.

Next month's forecast: The alumina market is expected to continue in a surplus pattern in November. After entering November, the monthly average price is projected to trend downward under pressure and gradually approach the cost line, further narrowing profit margins compared to the previous month, and more enterprises are expected to adopt production cut and maintenance measures. As supply tightens, the current surplus situation is expected to ease somewhat. However, with rebalancing of supply and demand still requiring time, prices will overall remain under pressure. Additionally, enterprises in the north need to be vigilant about potential further production restrictions due to the start of the heating season on November 15 and annual carbon emission inspections. The operating capacity for the industry in November is expected to be around 88.98 million mt.

Overseas aluminum

According to SMM, total overseas aluminum production in September 2025 increased 2.6% YoY; the average monthly operating rate was 89.0%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM and up 0.8 percentage points YoY. As of the end of October, cumulative production for 2025 had risen 2.9% YoY.

On October 21, Century Aluminum Company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary NorA°urAil Grundartangi ehf temporarily halted one of the two potlines at the Grundartangi aluminum smelter in Iceland due to an electrical equipment failure. The second potline at the smelter continued to operate at full capacity. This shutdown reduced the smelter's production by approximately two-thirds, with no casualties reported during the incident.

On October 22, Alcoa stated in its earnings report that Q3 aluminum production increased 1% MoM to 579,000 mt, mainly due to the restart progress at the San Ciprián aluminum plant in Spain.

Looking ahead to November, the operating capacity of new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia is expected to gradually ramp up, and the restart of the San Ciprián aluminum plant is expected to advance further. The estimated operating rate for overseas aluminum in October is about 89.1%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM and up 0.8 percentage points YoY.

Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina

According to SMM, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in October 2025 grew 5.6% YoY; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.09%, up 0.02% MoM and up 0.94% YoY. By the end of October, cumulative production for 2025 had increased 3.98% YoY.

Overall, overseas alumina production remained stable this month, with only minor changes. By country, the increase this month mainly came from Indonesia: Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), a subsidiary of Nanshan Holdings, which commenced phase three (1 million mt/year) in June, steadily increased production and is expected to reach full capacity by year-end, after which phase four (1 million mt/year) will immediately commence. Meanwhile, according to the SMM survey, a Chinese-funded enterprise in Indonesia is progressing smoothly with its phase two 1 million mt construction, expected to be completed and operational by Q2 2026.

In Japan, Evonik Industries announced on October 24 that its first advanced vapor-phase alumina plant "Alu5" in Yokkaichi officially began operations. This product, developed specifically for ultra-thin coating technology, boasts superior performance and broad applicability, significantly enhancing the performance and durability of products in various fields such as EVs, consumer electronics, and sustainable powder coatings. However, its specific capacity has not been disclosed, and SMM will continue to monitor its commissioning progress.

In South America, Century Aluminum announced on October 29 that due to Hurricane Melissa, its Jamalco joint venture alumina refinery in Clarendon, Jamaica, suspended production on October 25, affecting approximately 214,800 mt of output. The announcement stated that the plant has resumed production and is expected to gradually restore output to normal levels over the coming weeks. SMM will continue to monitor the plant's production resumptions.

Looking ahead to November, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 5.89% YoY; the operating rate is projected to reach 82.85%, up 0.76% MoM and up 1.20% YoY.

Primary Lead

In October 2025, China's primary lead production experienced a slight decline, down 0.56 percentage points MoM but up 2.66 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Cumulative primary lead production from January to October 2025 increased by 8.04 percentage points YoY.

According to reports, based on the October production schedules of primary lead smelters, the resumption of operations after maintenance at medium and large enterprises in central and north China was expected to bring some incremental output. However, in reality, due to undersupply of lead concentrates, the pace of production resumptions at lead smelters in north China was slower than expected. Additionally, unexpected production cuts at smelters in southwest and central China dragged down the month's primary lead production, which even saw a slight decrease compared to expectations.

Entering November, many primary lead smelters are entering a period of concentrated recovery following maintenance. Enterprises in central, north, southwest, and northwest China are resuming or continuing to restore production, which is the primary source of expected incremental primary lead output this month. Although some primary lead smelters in east China plan equipment maintenance in early or late November, their capacity scale is relatively small and is not expected to impact the monthly production growth forecast. Furthermore, the issue of lead concentrate undersupply persists. The TC has been in a downward trend for six consecutive months with no signs of stopping, limiting smelters' ability to increase production. Notably, the import window for lead ingots opened in October, and refined lead also met import conditions. Some primary lead smelters purchased imported crude lead, which will, to some extent, alleviate the raw material supply shortage. Overall, SMM expects primary lead production in November to increase by over 2 percentage points MoM.

Secondary Lead

In October 2025, secondary lead production increased significantly, up 9.24% MoM and up 11.86% YoY; secondary refined lead production rose by 15.25% MoM and increased by 4.27% YoY.

In October, lead prices fluctuated upward, with SMM #1 lead hitting a near six-month high. Meanwhile, supply in the waste lead-acid battery market remained stable, and prices did not follow the upward trend significantly. With raw material costs stabilizing and lead prices rising, secondary lead smelting profits performed well. The early October period coincided with the National Day & Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with most secondary lead smelters scheduling production resumptions for mid-month. Several large smelters in east China and north China resumed production. As secondary refined lead supply showed no significant short-term loosening, coupled with new maintenance at primary lead smelters, lead prices continued to fluctuate at highs. Downstream battery producers were cautious about purchasing at high levels, with some large smelters halting lead ingot procurement. Lead prices weakened slightly in late October; during this period, a smelter in east China decided to halt production due to unstable operations over recent months, while a smelter in north China suspended operations for equipment maintenance.

Looking ahead to November, two smelters in east China and north-west China have been baking their furnaces for several days and are expected to officially begin feeding and resume production after November begins. Additionally, newly expanded capacity in north-east China will officially produce lead after coming online. These three enterprises will positively impact refined lead supply in November. The secondary lead industry is undergoing a transformation, with some producers shifting their raw material base from solely waste lead-acid batteries to "primarily lead concentrates, supplemented by waste batteries." Post-transformation, secondary refined lead production will decline, while primary lead production increases. Overall, the net change in secondary refined lead production in November is largely balanced, with the final increase likely under 20,000 mt.

Refined Zinc

SMM China's refined zinc production in October 2025 increased by over 17,000 mt MoM and approximately 21% YoY. Cumulative production from January to October rose by about 10% YoY, falling below expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in October saw a slight MoM increase. Entering October, production increases at domestic smelters were lower than expected, primarily due to prominent raw material issues. Production cuts were mainly concentrated in Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Hunan, while increases were primarily seen in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Hunan, Gansu, and Guangxi.

SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in November 2025 to decrease by 0.9% MoM but increase by nearly 20% YoY. Cumulative production from January to November 2025 is forecast to increase by over 10% YoY. The November production decline at smelters is attributed not only to routine maintenance cuts but mainly to rapidly falling TCs. Amid winter stockpiling, smelters face increased raw material inventory pressure, forcing some to reduce output. Additionally, some secondary zinc plants proactively cut or halted production due to high raw material prices, procurement difficulties, and resulting losses. Overall, reductions are concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Hunan, while maintenance resumptions in Gansu and Henan, plus new capacity coming online in Xinjiang and Ningxia, will contribute some increases.

Refined Tin

Based on SMM's data processed from market communication, China's refined tin production in October 2025 rebounded 53.09% MoM compared to the previous month, while showing a slight decrease of 4.25% YoY. The rebound in production was mainly driven by the conclusion of maintenance shutdowns at some enterprises. A detailed regional analysis is as follows:

According to General Administration of Customs data, China's physical imports of tin concentrates reached 8,714 mt in September 2025, declining significantly MoM. Imports of tin concentrates from countries such as the DRC fell, but the overall volume remained at a normal level, affected only by shipping schedules and other transportation factors. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar continued to rebound. With the approval of mining licenses, short-term supply showed signs of improvement. Imports of tin ore from other regions and countries remained at previous levels.

Yunnan region: The treatment charges (TCs) for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan remained low. Some domestic smelters underwent maintenance in September and resumed production in October, leading to a significant rebound in tin ingot production in Yunnan in October.

Jiangxi region:

Disruption in the scrap supply chain: Orders at downstream tin enterprises in east and south China were weaker than in previous periods. The tin scrap recycling system was under pressure, with the circulation of secondary materials in the market decreasing by over 30%. The undersupply of crude tin directly constrained any increase in refined production. Some smelters implemented minor production cuts this month, while others maintained normal output.

Other regions:

Tin ingot production saw a slight decline in October at some smelters due to Hani employees returning home for the New Year holiday. Concurrently, the prolonged tightness of dual materials kept the operating rates at most smelters consistently below 70% of planned capacity.

Based on SMM calculations, refined tin production in November is expected to rebound by 0.87% MoM. Driving factors: With the exclusion of holiday and maintenance impacts in November, most smelters can maintain normal production.

Refined Nickel

In October 2025, SMM's refined nickel production increased by 0.8% MoM and was up 17% YoY, with the cumulative growth rate reaching 30%. The average operating rate at domestic refined nickel enterprises was 64%. Due to tight supply of intermediate raw materials, some enterprises prioritized nickel sulphate production in October, leading to a decrease in refined nickel output. However, other enterprises maintained stable production schedules, resulting in an overall slight upward trend in refined nickel production. From a price perspective, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in October was 122,459 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt MoM. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel reached 2,400 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt MoM, while the premiums and discounts for major domestic electrodeposited nickel brands adjusted to a range of -200 to 100 yuan/mt, indicating weaker premiums and discounts. On the demand side, downstream demand for refined nickel decreased due to the National Day holiday, but towards month-end, increased enthusiasm for point-price purchases emerged as futures prices declined.

Looking ahead to November, new refined nickel projects in China are expected to commence operation. However, given the persistent shortage of cobalt resources, the MHP raw material market is anticipated to remain tight, and refined nickel production may decline by about 2% due to insufficient raw materials.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In October 2025, China's NPI production in physical terms increased by 5.90% MoM, while the metal content rose by 22.71% MoM. Both the physical volume and metal content of NPI increased in October. During the month, prices for stainless steel and high-grade NPI declined. On the cost side, prices for nickel ore and auxiliary materials rose, leading to high production costs for high-grade NPI. Concurrently, as high-grade NPI prices fell, profit margins continued to shrink, with losses deepening domestically and Indonesian high-grade NPI also nearing breakeven levels. However, stainless steel demand remained stable with some growth in October, and demand held steady. Additionally, the resumption of production by a major domestic enterprise contributed to an overall increase in output.

Looking ahead, as the traditional off-season approaches, stainless steel demand is expected to see a slight decline in November. Moreover, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap continues to outweigh that of high-grade NPI. Demand side, demand for high-grade NPI is projected to decrease MoM in November. Supply side, against the backdrop of consecutive price drops and expanding losses, the operating rate of domestic high-grade NPI enterprises is anticipated to decline MoM. In particular, due to production cuts in the 200-series stainless steel, the reduction in low-grade NPI output is expected to widen. SMM forecasts that China's NPI production in physical terms will decrease by 3.72% MoM in November, with metal content down by 3.23% MoM.

Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In October 2025, Indonesian NPI production in physical terms increased by 7.35% MoM, while the metal content rose by 6.62% MoM. Entering October, stainless steel demand remained stable. Although high-grade NPI prices declined, some Indonesian smelters remained profitable, and production resumptions at several smelters drove an increase in output, resulting in higher both physical volume and metal content of Indonesian NPI.

Looking forward, certain production cuts are expected in the stainless steel sector in November, and production schedules at some Indonesian high-grade NPI smelters are marginally contracting. However, with new production lines scheduled to commence operation in November and output from enterprises that resumed production in October expected to stabilize, SMM forecasts that Indonesian NPI production in physical terms will see a slight decrease of 0.13% MoM in November 2025, while the metal content is projected to edge up by only 0.01% MoM.

Nickel Sulphate

According to an SMM survey, nickel sulphate production in October 2025 increased by approximately 6.66% MoM and was up about 26.14% YoY. Demand side, coinciding with the peak season for the power market, downstream raw material stocking demand increased in October, leading to higher procurement volumes of nickel salt. Supply side, some nickel salt enterprises completed production resumptions during the month, and integrated enterprises boosted their nickel sulphate stockpiling efforts due to growth in precursor orders, resulting in an increase in nickel salt supply in the market. Looking ahead to the November market, nickel sulphate raw material supply remains tight, but demand for nickel salts from downstream and integrated enterprises remains high. Coupled with some producers' plans to resume production, it is expected that the supply of nickel sulphate will continue to grow slightly. It is forecasted that by November, SMM's nickel sulphate production will increase by about 4.83% MoM and about 23.36% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In October 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate continued its growth trend on a MoM basis. From the raw material side, the prices of key raw materials, such as manganese ore and sulphuric acid, remained at high levels, leading to persistent cost pressure for manganese salt manufacturers. Additionally, the impact of environmental protection taxes and other policies further increased the cost of handling manganese slag. Despite significant cost pressures, on the supply side, overall production schedules for manganese salt producers this month were still relatively active, with operating rates rebounding. However, enterprises did not blindly increase output, keeping inventory at low levels. On the demand side, driven by multiple factors, the traditional "October peak season" stimulated gradual release of stockpiling demand in the market, directly boosting the execution scale of long-term contracts for high-purity manganese sulphate and significantly increasing market activity, which in turn helped to raise the monthly supply volume on a MoM basis. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in cobalt prices raised concerns among downstream players about further price increases, prompting some companies to engage in stockpiling, thereby enhancing procurement enthusiasm and increasing spot order volumes. Coupled with overseas markets beginning to stockpile for Christmas, there was an increase in inquiries and optimistic expectations in the export market, collectively supporting the growth in production for the month. Looking ahead to November 2025, as the traditional peak season ends and market stockpiling demand decreases, the industry may return to a calmer state, focusing on signing long-term contracts for next year. It is expected that the production of high-purity manganese sulphate will decline slightly.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide

In October 2025, the production of EMD showed a slight increase on a MoM basis. Specifically, the primary battery market entered its traditional peak demand period, with EMD producers focusing on ensuring timely delivery of existing orders. Combined with the gradual implementation of new orders, this situation directly boosted the production of carbon-zinc and alkaline-manganese batteries, providing solid support for the increase in EMD production. At the same time, overseas market demand also performed strongly, significantly boosting export orders for some primary battery manufacturers, continuously injecting momentum into the demand for EMD. In the field of MnO2 used for LMO battery, the competitive landscape in the downstream LMO market continued to intensify. To optimize cost structures, most LMO producers turned to using more cost-effective Mn3O4 as an alternative raw material. This trend made it difficult for the demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery to recover effectively, resulting in stable production levels with only a slight increase. Looking ahead to November 2025, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually concludes, market order volumes are expected to narrow to some extent. Overall, total EMD production in November 2025 is projected to show a slight downward trend.

Mn3O4

In October 2025, Mn3O4 production showed a slight increase MoM. Cost side, EMM prices rose significantly during the month, directly driving up quotations from Mn3O4 producers. Manganese sulphate also saw price increases due to robust market demand and strong cost support. With both raw materials becoming more expensive, cost support for Mn3O4 enterprises strengthened significantly, fostering a strong inclination to hold prices firm. Supply side, Mn3O4 producers generally maintained stable production schedules, mostly adhering to a "produce based on sales" model, with inventory consistently kept within safe levels. In October, as downstream orders gradually increased, producers slightly raised their planned production. Demand side exhibited structural characteristics, with battery-grade market demand being the main driver: LMO demand was relatively optimistic in October, directly boosting procurement of its raw material Mn3O4 slightly. The LMFP market also released some raw material procurement demand, with procurement scale further expanding driven by the traditional peak season. In contrast, the electronic-grade market still faced oversupply, leading producers to adopt a cautious approach towards production scheduling, resulting in relatively small production increases. Overall demand growth was mainly concentrated in the battery-grade market. Looking ahead to November 2025, as the traditional peak season gradually fades, downstream market order volumes are expected to narrow. Therefore, total Mn3O4 production in that month is projected to decrease slightly.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM statistics, high-carbon ferrochrome production in October 2025 increased by 28,200 mt MoM from September, up 3.55%, and was up 10.96% YoY. The main increase came from North China's Inner Mongolia region, where several high-carbon ferrochrome producers resumed operation of submerged arc furnaces during the month, leading to an actual production increase of 5.14% MoM. Additionally, producers in southern regions such as Sichuan and Guangxi utilized low electricity price advantages during the rainy season and implemented peak-shaving production, maintaining stable output. The September-October peak season exerted positive effects, with stainless steel production continuing to rebound, boosting procurement demand for raw material ferrochrome. In October, the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome rose again by 200 yuan to 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), aligning with mainstream market expectations and providing some boost to the ferrochrome market. With profit margins somewhat secured, most ferrochrome producers actively fulfilled long-term contract orders. According to reports, total ferrochrome production from major South African chrome enterprises in Q3 2025 was only 3,000 mt, down 99.81% QoQ and down 99.9% YoY. Meanwhile, China's ferrochrome imports in September totaled 223,800 mt, down 26.5% YoY. Consequently, production cuts and shutdowns at overseas ferrochrome facilities became the primary factor driving the increase in domestic ferrochrome output. The tight supply-demand balance prompted ferrochrome producers to maintain active production, with operating rates remaining at relatively high levels.

Looking ahead to November, ferrochrome production is expected to hover at highs. On October 27, Tsingshan set its November high-carbon ferrochrome tender price at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous month, which helped stabilize the ferrochrome market to some extent. Additionally, on one hand, new ferrochrome capacity came online, with a high-carbon ferrochrome producer in Inner Mongolia starting production at two 48,000 kva submerged arc furnaces, which are expected to yield approximately 18,000 mt per month under normal operation. On the other hand, despite entering the transitional period between dry and rainy season in Sichuan and other regions, abundant water resources this year resulted in only a modest rise in electricity prices, allowing most ferrochrome producers to maintain normal operations without production cut plans, as production costs remained stable. Low imports further stimulated domestic producers to actively maintain output. However, as the industry gradually enters the off-season, stainless steel mills have planned production cuts, and weakening demand for ferrochrome may subsequently affect producers' production plans.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM data, China's stainless steel production in October 2025 increased by 1.47% MoM and 3.38% YoY. By series, 200-series output rose 2.25% MoM, 300-series output increased 0.58% MoM, and 400-series output grew 2.87% MoM.

In October, overall stainless steel production continued to rise, though the growth rate was relatively limited. Despite being in the September-October peak season, the sales cycle was shortened due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. Moreover, persistent production increases in previous months led to ample market supply, while downstream demand fell short of expectations. After mid-month, transactions remained sluggish, signaling an early arrival of the off-season. Some stainless steel mills resumed normal operations after completing scheduled maintenance. Additionally, good raw material inventories and production inertia contributed to the lack of significant adjustments in overall output during the month. However, amid pessimistic expectations, production enthusiasm among stainless steel mills has noticeably declined. By series, the increases in 300-series and 400-series output were relatively small, while the main growth came from the 200-series, which still maintained some production margins.

Looking ahead to November, stainless steel production is expected to experience a slight decline. With the end of the September-October peak season and the arrival of the year-end traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand for stainless steel has weakened noticeably. Prices continue to be in the doldrums, and influenced by market pessimism, stainless steel mills are seeing unfavorable forward order intake. Coupled with the ongoing situation where costs exceed selling prices, overall stainless steel production is likely to pull back. But as Sino-US trade tensions eased, stainless steel social inventory did not increase further and remained at a relatively low level for the year, with just-in-time procurement volume still supporting the basic demand for stainless steel. Although there have been recent reports that stainless steel mills will cut production of 200-series stainless steel over the next 2-3 months, expectations for actual production cuts in November are low, and there are no significant production cut plans for 300-series and 400-series stainless steel, resulting in a limited decrease in production.

EMM

In October 2025, EMM production showed a MoM increase. From the supply side, EMM plants focused on long-term contract deliveries, maintaining a stable production schedule with minor fluctuations. In October, driven by the traditional peak consumption season, some manganese plants increased their production enthusiasm, achieving a slight increase in output. Meanwhile, the spot price of EMM rose significantly during the month, expanding profit margins and further boosting the production willingness of manganese plants, providing additional support for production growth. From the demand side, market performance was slightly divergent: although the stainless steel market did not meet peak season expectations, it still saw some growth in October, driving a slight increase in EMM procurement demand; the special steel market has become the main consumption area for EMM, with optimistic growth rates; while the Mn3O4 market, lacking long-term contract support, turned to high-priced spot resource purchases to meet production needs, indirectly heating up market trading sentiment. Additionally, as overseas markets exited the summer break and approached Christmas, pre-holiday stockpiling demand gradually released, leading to a positive performance in the export market. Under the combined influence of multiple favorable factors, EMM production in October 2025 increased slightly. Looking ahead to November 2025, as market trading sentiment gradually returns to calm, enterprise stockpiling willingness weakens, and with current EMM prices at a high level, downstream enterprises are considering raw material alternatives, leading to a stronger wait-and-see sentiment. Therefore, it is expected that EMM production in November will decline slightly MoM.

SiMn alloy

In October 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production decreased slightly MoM from September, but increased YoY compared to October 2024.

In October, SiMn alloy production in both northern and southern regions declined to varying degrees. The main reasons were as follows: on one hand, the market's weak and volatile performance suppressed production willingness. In the futures market, the most-traded SiMn futures contract oscillated around 5,778 yuan/mt throughout the month, lacking effective momentum for price rise, and market sentiment was low. In the spot market, steel mill tender prices concentrated in the 5,800-5,850 yuan/mt range, which was below the expected profit line for many producers. The cautious trading atmosphere continued under the resonance of the futures and spot markets. In this situation, most factories only maintained the existing order production schedules, and some enterprises in the north and south without clear orders initiated blast furnace maintenance plans, leading to a reduction in monthly production. On the other hand, the boost effect of the peak consumption season was less than expected. On the supply side, China's SiMn alloy production saw significant growth for two consecutive months in August-September 2025, with market inventory gradually accumulating and supply-side pressure continuously being released; on the demand side, although October is traditionally the "September-October peak season," the tender procurement volume of SiMn by steel mills in that month pulled back, and the peak season demand boost effect was less than expected. In addition, there was a lack of positive support on the macro front. No clear favorable policies for the SiMn industry chain were released at the macroeconomic level in October, making it difficult to increase overall market activity for SiMn, failing to form a driving force for production growth.

Looking ahead to November 2025, SiMn alloy production is likely to continue a slight downward trend. On one hand, cost support will weaken. Entering November, the preferential electricity rates during the rainy season in Yunnan and other southern regions will end, leading to a significant rise in power costs for local SiMn enterprises, increasing overall cost expenditures. Some factories in Yunnan have already indicated they will adjust production plans based on cost changes, showing a willingness to cut production, and it is expected that output in the main southern production areas will see a phased decline; on the other hand, the traditional consumption off-season will exacerbate demand-side pressure. After entering November, the downstream steel industry will gradually enter the traditional consumption off-season, and steel mills will simultaneously reduce SiMn procurement volumes. Under the expectation of insufficient demand, SiMn producers will proactively lower operating rates to avoid inventory buildup, further pushing monthly production down slightly.

Silicon wafers

In October, various silicon wafer enterprises increased production slightly, with production up about 4.4% MoM. This month, there were noticeable fluctuations in silicon wafer prices, with all sizes of silicon wafers seeing price softening by month-end. Some low-price orders for 210R had already reached cash levels, while profitability for the other two sizes also declined compared to September. Entering November, upstream policy support for raw material prices will shift silicon wafers into a cost-based pricing logic, and silicon wafer enterprises may appropriately cut production in November-December, with an expected decrease in output for November.

Polysilicon

Actual polysilicon production in October increased slightly from September, up about 3% MoM. The main reason for the increase in polysilicon production in October was the resumption of production in some regions, along with the cancellation of some production cut plans this month, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. However, some regional production cuts due to the rainy and dry seasons offset part of the increase. In November, it is expected that polysilicon production will significantly decrease, mainly due to the impact of the dry season.

Silicon metal

According to SMM market communication, domestic silicon metal production in October 2025 increased by 31,400 mt, or 7.5% MoM, and decreased by 17,600 mt, or 4% YoY. From January to October 2025, the cumulative silicon metal production reached 3.4699 million mt, down 16.6% YoY.

October's silicon metal production largely met expectations, with monthly supply remaining at a high level for the year. However, production is expected to decline significantly in November as production cuts take effect in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season.

The increase in silicon metal production in October was primarily driven by contributions from Xinjiang, where monthly production rose by over 30,000 mt MoM. This was mainly due to the phased capacity ramp-up by a major enterprise in Xinjiang during September and October, along with production increases at several smaller facilities. Xinjiang accounted for approximately 52% of the national supply, while Yunnan and Sichuan contributed around 12% and 11%, respectively. In Yunnan and Sichuan, a small number of furnaces reduced production in October due to high production costs or poor furnace conditions, leading to a declining trend in regional operating rates. The operating rate in Inner Mongolia remained largely stable.

In November, supply-side variables for silicon metal will mainly manifest in Sichuan and Yunnan, where some silicon enterprises planned production cuts starting late October. Combined production in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to drop by over 50% in November. While there are slight expectations for production increases in northern regions, total national supply is projected to fall below 400,000 mt, a decrease of 12%.

PV Module

In October, PV module enterprises maintained expectations for production reductions, though the actual cuts were less than initially projected at the start of the month. End-use demand increased compared to September, and domestic module inventory levels declined. As a result, some manufacturers that had previously planned cuts postponed their schedules. Overall production decreased by 3.63% MoM from September. Recently, reduced overseas installations have led to weaker demand, and module exports are expected to decline. Domestically, some centralized projects have commenced, while distributed projects saw a limited reduction. End-users have begun making small, low-point purchases, leading to improved transaction volumes compared to September. Consequently, the decline in module production in November is expected to narrow. Looking at the November production schedule, operating rates are projected to decrease by 2.43% MoM from October.

Solar Cell

In October, the global solar cell production within SMM's sample was approximately 59 GW (down 1.0% MoM), with domestic production in China at about 58 GW (down 2.8% MoM). Overall, the solar cell market in October exhibited a trend of "total tightening with structural divergence." Demand was supported by overseas procurement driven by India's ALMM policy and domestic demand for high-efficiency cells from centralized projects. On the supply side, capacity began shifting towards TOPCon passivation technology and larger-format, high-efficiency products like 210N. Supported by costs and structural demand, the industry is entering a phase of "controlling volume to maintain prices and optimizing structure."

PV Film

In October, the total production schedule for the PV film industry decreased by 14.67% MoM. The main reason was a decrease in orders from film manufacturers, leading to a decline in overall operating rates. Film prices are expected to decrease in November, while order conditions may improve slightly, and overall film production is anticipated to increase modestly.

PV-grade EVA

PV-grade EVA production schedules fell 7% MoM in October. This was mainly due to sluggish market trading activity, with petrochemical plants gradually building inventory and shifting production to non-PV-grade materials, resulting in a decrease in PV-grade output. According to SMM, some petrochemical plants are expected to undergo maintenance in November, and PV-grade production is projected to decline.

PV Glass

Domestic PV glass production continued to increase in October, up 4.07% MoM from September. October had one more production day than September, and new furnaces commenced production while some idled furnaces resumed operations, leading to an increase in active capacity and higher output. SMM statistics show that newly added active capacity reached 2,000 mt/day during the month. In terms of November supply, due to fewer production days and reduced module production demand domestically, the risk of oversupply for glass has increased. Therefore, operating rates are expected to decline, and production is estimated to decrease by 2.43% MoM from October.

DMC

Domestic silicone DMC production remained basically stable MoM in October, up 4.9% YoY. Specifically, facilities that underwent maintenance or reduced loads earlier continued operating. Although some monomer facilities started load reduction and periodic maintenance plans, the involved capacity was relatively small, and October had one more calendar day than September, resulting in overall production being basically flat with September. Regarding future operating pace, as maintenance activities in east China and south-west China are gradually completed and production resumes, the overall industry operating rate is expected to increase accordingly. Therefore, domestic silicone DMC production in November is projected to increase by about 3.82% MoM from October. However, attention should still be paid to potential factors such as slower-than-expected progress in facility restarts, which could also impact related production.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, China's primary magnesium production increased 6.67% MoM in October 2025, and the operating rate rose to 70.44%.

Primary magnesium production increased 6.67% MoM in October, showing steady growth. The reasons for the growth are as follows: First, some primary magnesium smelters conducted annual equipment maintenance in September, and after completing the maintenance, they resumed production. These manufacturers operated normally in October, contributing to the growth in primary magnesium output. Second, primary magnesium smelters in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other provinces started production of furnaces and produced magnesium ingots in October, leading to a slight increase in primary magnesium production as a result. Third, due to the surge in demand for magnesium alloys, these producers, mostly integrated across the entire industry chain, have raised the operating rate of primary magnesium smelting to reduce reliance on externally purchased magnesium ingots.

Primary magnesium production is expected to continue growing in November. Newly resumed primary magnesium smelters in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces are now producing magnesium ingots. As production equipment is debugged in the new month, daily output is projected to increase slightly. Additionally, Xinjiang province has plans to boost production, indicating that primary magnesium output will likely maintain rapid growth in November.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy production in October 2025 increased by 19.49% MoM and 36.01% YoY, with cumulative growth up 10.78% YoY. The operating rate for magnesium alloy rose to 74.54% in October.

Magnesium alloy production grew rapidly in October, up 19.49% MoM. In September, magnesium alloy demand showed significant growth momentum, with widespread inventory inversions in the market. Most producers fell into scheduled production mode, and spot supply remained tight. Some alloy manufacturers proactively increased production to supplement magnesium ingot supply, leading to a notable rise in magnesium alloy output. Specifically, the growth in magnesium alloy demand spread from Anhui to Shanxi and Shaanxi. Magnesium alloy producers in these regions raised operating rates accordingly, with some in Shanxi reaching 100%. Producers in Shaanxi accelerated construction of magnesium alloy production lines, and some began output in early to mid-October, resulting in a slight increase in Shaanxi's magnesium alloy production.

In November, most producers still need to schedule production based on order sequences, with some orders extending to mid-to-late November. To alleviate the current tight supply, magnesium alloy producers in Anhui, Shanxi, and other provinces continue to operate at full capacity. Considering that primary magnesium producers in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions are releasing new capacity and are expected to produce magnesium alloy in November, overall alloy output is projected to show an upward trend.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in October 2025 increased by 4.04% MoM, and the operating rate rose to 43.96%.

Magnesium powder output saw a slight rise in October. Currently, some magnesium powder producers face dual pressure from domestic and external demand: the domestic consumer market remains sluggish, and procurement demand from steel enterprises has shrunk, so magnesium powder demand has not improved significantly. However, due to the gradual implementation of policies on forging customs clearance documents, foreign trade orders for some magnesium powder producers increased slightly, contributing to a modest growth in October output. As the traditional peak season ends, the market generally expects demand to weaken further, and the industry may face greater pressure for production cuts in November.

Titanium Dioxide

In October 2025, China's titanium dioxide market remained in the doldrums. According to SMM data, production in the month fell 2.40% MoM, while cumulative production in 2025 dropped 8.28% YoY.

At the beginning of October, although several enterprises successively issued second price adjustment notices, market response was mediocre. Domestic demand during the October peak season fell short of expectations, and actual transaction prices failed to achieve effective increases. In the latter part of the month, inquiries further decreased, and prices gradually came under pressure and declined. The drop in production this month was mainly affected by the accident-related production halt at a leading enterprise in September. Although there were small production increases in other regions, the overall trend remained downward.

In terms of inventory structure, small and medium-sized enterprises saw some inventory reduction, mainly focused on fulfilling September orders, while large enterprises still faced significant inventory pressure. On the external demand side, overseas orders in October were relatively stable, but price reductions were common, keeping export prices under pressure.

Looking ahead to November, the titanium dioxide market will still rely on support from overseas orders. However, against the backdrop of high domestic inventories and no significant contraction in production, market expectations remain pessimistic.

Sponge Titanium

In October 2025, China's sponge titanium production remained generally stable. According to SMM statistics, production in the month increased 2.18% MoM, while cumulative production rose 3.03% YoY.

The slight rebound in production this month was mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at some enterprises that had previously planned but did not actually implement production cuts. In terms of demand structure, the high-end sponge titanium market performed well, but orders in the civilian sector contracted. Notably, some manufacturers sold at low prices in late October, leading to a decline in overall market prices.

In the long term, against the backdrop of continuous expansion of sponge titanium capacity and insufficient follow-through in actual demand, prices still face some downward pressure.

Light Rare Earths

In October, production of Pr-Nd oxide decreased significantly MoM. This was mainly due to the previous shutdown of some raw ore separation enterprises, coupled with a decrease in the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises. In particular, many leading scrap recycling enterprises conducted equipment maintenance in October, leading to a noticeable reduction in Pr-Nd oxide production. This situation is expected to improve in November, hence a slight rebound in Pr-Nd oxide production is forecast for November.

In October, production of Pr-Nd alloy saw a slight contraction, down 1.47% MoM. The main reasons were the continued weakness in Pr-Nd alloy prices and weak downstream procurement demand, leading to losses for Pr-Nd alloy producers. Metal enterprises in Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan implemented production cuts, resulting in a slight reduction in Pr-Nd alloy production. Looking ahead to November, downstream procurement demand is expected to recover, and the profitability of Pr-Nd alloy is projected to improve, encouraging stable production among metal enterprises. Pr-Nd alloy output in November is anticipated to remain steady.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In October, the output of medium-heavy rare earth oxides declined significantly on a MoM basis. Some raw ore separation enterprises suspended production during the month, while several scrap recycling enterprises simultaneously carried out equipment maintenance, leading to temporary shutdowns. The combined impact of these two factors resulted in a noticeable reduction in the market supply of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. However, rare earth market demand remained sluggish during the same period. This inverse movement in the supply-demand relationship prevented the anticipated supply shortage from materializing. Instead, mounting inventory pressure prompted suppliers to proactively lower their offers for medium-heavy rare earth oxides, creating a unique market situation characterized by reduced supply alongside falling prices.

NdFeB

In October 2025, China's NdFeB magnetic material production decreased by approximately 5% MoM. This contraction was driven by a combination of factors including falling prices, fewer effective working days, adjustments to export policies, and changes in external news sentiment towards month-end. At the beginning of the month, raw material prices such as Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy showed a clear downward trend, fostering strong bearish market sentiment. This led to pronounced wait-and-see sentiment among motor and end-user customers, resulting in weak new orders for magnetic material enterprises. Furthermore, the National Day holiday reduced the number of actual working days, and the export control policy announced on October 9 further dampened market confidence, leading to overall low trading activity for magnetic materials. Entering the final week of the month, news of an agreement between China and the U.S. on rare earth issues boosted market confidence. End-user inquiries and order placements became more active, prompting mid- and lower-tier enterprises to increase their operating rates. However, as top-tier enterprises' orders were already relatively saturated for the month, their output was slightly affected by the reduced working days. The increased operating rates among small and medium-sized enterprises, due to their relatively small scale, were insufficient to fully offset the aforementioned negative factors, resulting in an overall MoM decline in production for the month.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, domestic molybdenum concentrate production maintained a growth trend in October 2025, increasing by 11.3% MoM and 13.9% YoY. Total molybdenum concentrate production from January to October 2025 increased by 3.6% YoY.

In October, most domestic mines maintained stable operations, with only some small mines in regions such as Shaanxi undergoing maintenance and production cuts, having a relatively small overall impact on production. By province, molybdenum concentrate output saw slight increases in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang, primarily due to previous capacity expansions and production resumptions at some mines, leading to higher output compared to September. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose first and then fell in October. In early October, mainstream mines collectively entered the market to sell, but later, driven by weak demand, prices pulled back, mines' willingness to sell decreased, and invisible inventory in the industry increased.

Entering November, domestic downstream molybdenum demand entered the off-season, coupled with disruptions from low-priced overseas molybdenum oxide and molybdenum concentrate, the molybdenum concentrate market is unlikely to see significant upward momentum. Operating rates in the molybdenum concentrate industry are expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to potential changes in mine operations in north China as winter approaches.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM data, domestic ferromolybdenum production in October 2025 decreased by 11.2% MoM and 14.2% YoY. Total ferromolybdenum production from January to October 2025 increased by 6% YoY.

In October, due to significant losses in the domestic ferromolybdenum industry and weak demand from downstream steel mills, operating rates at domestic ferromolybdenum enterprises generally declined. Most enterprises focused on delivering based on previous orders, with poor willingness to take new orders, leading to a reduction in production schedules. By province, operating rates in Liaoning, a major ferromolybdenum production region, decreased noticeably in October. The operating rate for ferromolybdenum in Liaoning Province was about 44% in October, down 4 percentage points MoM, ranking among the largest declines. In contrast, mainstream ferromolybdenum plants in Henan and Shaanxi mostly have their own molybdenum ore resources, resulting in relatively stable operations, with overall provincial operating rate fluctuations being relatively small. SMM data shows the domestic ferromolybdenum industry operating rate was about 49% in October, down 6 percentage points MoM, marking the lowest rate of the year. Cost-wise, domestic ferromolybdenum plants generally incurred losses in October. According to SMM data, the monthly average price for domestic 45% molybdenum concentrate in October was about 4,379.7 yuan/mtu, the average cost for 60% ferromolybdenum was about 282,000 yuan/mt, while the industry's average ferromolybdenum price was about 276,700 yuan/mt, resulting in an average industry loss of 5,100 yuan/mt for the month.

Entering November, expectations for weaker demand from domestic downstream steel mills strengthened. With declining pending delivery orders for ferromolybdenum enterprises, it is difficult to support higher industry operating rates. Additionally, strong sentiment among molybdenum concentrate market miners to hold back sales makes a significant pullback in molybdenum concentrate prices unlikely, hindering profit recovery in the molybdenum concentrate industry and suppressing operating rates. SMM expects domestic ferromolybdenum production to remain low in November.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, domestic Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) production increased slightly MoM but decreased by about 13.3% YoY in October 2025. The operating rate in the APT industry was about 70.1% in October, up 0.8 percentage points MoM.

In October, supported by continuously declining industry inventory, both prices and profits in the APT market increased, leading to some recovery in industry operating rates. During the month, mainstream domestic APT producers mostly maintained stable production, with significant long-term contract delivery volumes, and some enterprises increased production to fulfill previous orders. However, small and medium-sized smelters maintained low capacity utilization rates due to high raw material procurement costs and weak bargaining power, with idle industry capacity mainly concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises. During the month, the tightening of environmental protection policies and strengthened resource controls continued to take effect. Major production areas such as southern Jiangxi and southern Hunan further raised energy consumption and emission control standards for smelters, resulting in low operating rates. In late October, the domestic tungsten concentrate market experienced another rapid price surge, making it difficult for APT enterprises to restock, which may impact future operations. As of now, domestic 65% black tungsten concentrate closed at 297,500 yuan/mt, while the real-time cost of APT reached 431,000 yuan/mt. Industry sentiment showed a strong fear of high prices, with a noticeable decline in both restocking and willingness to sell.

Entering November, domestic tungsten concentrate supply may see some increase driven by production resumptions at some mines. However, downstream end-use sectors such as cemented carbide are expected to face demand weakness due to high prices. APT enterprises, constrained by high costs and anticipated demand contraction, are unlikely to achieve significant operational increases. Industry operating rates are projected to remain around 70% in November.

Silver

China's silver production in October 2025 fell approximately 3.55% MoM from September. On the reduction side, lead-zinc smelters in Jiangxi and Qinghai slightly reduced silver ingot output due to equipment maintenance; a smelter in Shandong experienced a significant production decline due to workshop shutdowns for inventory counting; and a copper smelter in Inner Mongolia saw reduced output as its precious metals workshop underwent maintenance. On the increase side, the completion of autumn maintenance at lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Henan led to a slight rise in silver ingot production in October. Entering November, a smelter in Yunnan is expected to lower its output, while lead-zinc smelters in Guangxi, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia cited reasons such as ore grade for potential production cuts. A lead smelter in Inner Mongolia that previously underwent maintenance is expected to fully resume production in November, likely bringing a slight output increase. Although there is potential for production resumption in Shandong, specific plans have not yet been announced.

Silver Nitrate

China's silver nitrate production fell sharply by about 20% MoM in October 2025, as multiple enterprises reduced output or halted production during the National Day holiday and did not ramp up production after the holiday. Additionally, due to a liquidity crunch in silver ingots in October, raw material premiums surged but could not be smoothly passed through, leading some silver nitrate producers to proactively cut production to avoid losses. Entering November, sluggish end-use consumption orders and the failure of domestic silver ingot premiums to return to normal levels have led some silver nitrate enterprises to refrain from restoring full production. Therefore, SMM estimates that silver nitrate output in November may see a slight increase due to post-holiday recovery but is unlikely to return to pre-holiday operating levels.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) in October 2025 increased by approximately 22.86% MoM compared to the previous month. In detail, among the 33 surveyed entities currently assessed by SMM, 12 manufacturers have suspended production, a decrease of 3 from last month; 20 manufacturers are in a state of reduced production, an increase of 3 from last month; and 1 manufacturer's output is basically normal, unchanged from last month. In terms of antimony ingot production, after falling below 4,000 mt in September, it rebounded above 4,000 mt in October. Although there was a rebound, many market participants believe this is a normal phenomenon, as the current national production remains at historically low levels, with around 4,000 mt still far from normal production levels. The market's raw material supply is still relatively tight and concentrated, leaving many manufacturers without sufficient materials. Market participants indicate that the national antimony ingot production in November 2025 may not change much compared to October, with the possibility of maintaining stability or experiencing a slight decline.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessment of national antimony ingot (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, and antimony cathode, etc.) production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveys a total of 33 antimony ingot producers across eight provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, China's primary grade sodium pyroantimonate production in October 2025 will decrease by about 12.24% MoM. After a significant rebound in September, the production of primary grade sodium pyroantimonate in October saw another substantial decline, leading many market participants to lament that the expected peak demand season in October did not materialize. Some manufacturers stated that the production decline at the beginning of Q4 is closely related to the reduction in orders. Market participants noted that recent rumors and policy requirements regarding production rectification in the PV glass sector, such as accelerating the exit of outdated capacity, may have impacted sodium pyroantimonate orders to some extent. In terms of detailed data, among SMM's 13 surveyed entities, 4 manufacturers were in a state of suspension or debugging in October, with only 1 sodium pyroantimonate manufacturer showing a certain level of production growth, while 3 manufacturers experienced a decline in production. As a result, the overall production of primary grade sodium pyroantimonate in China in October decreased significantly. Market participants expect that the national sodium pyroantimonate production in November 2025 is unlikely to continue declining compared to October. With the approach of year-end, it remains uncertain whether the market can emerge from the off-season, and the likelihood of production remaining stable is higher.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing its assessment of national sodium pyroantimonate production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveys a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers across six provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM assessment, China's refined bismuth production in October 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 10.5% MoM compared to September. In recent months, bismuth production had been on a downward trend, with the first rebound occurring in August, followed by a significant decrease again in September. Entering Q4 in October, bismuth production rebounded once more. Market participants indicated that such fluctuations in production correspond to the current volatility in bismuth prices, reflecting a stalemate in market fundamentals. However, some market participants also noted that the approximately 10% increase in October production is relatively small, overall bismuth raw material remains tight, and production may normalize at a low level. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 24 survey subjects, two producers resumed production in October after halts, leading to a noticeable output increase, while one producer's sudden shutdown caused a significant drop. Output from the remaining producers fluctuated slightly with little overall change. Many market participants expect that the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide will remain difficult to alleviate in November, production is likely to continue being constrained, refined bismuth output is expected to stabilize, and the possibility of another significant rise is low.

Note: SMM has been publishing its assessed national refined bismuth production since October 2022. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, the survey covers 24 refined bismuth producers across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a capacity coverage rate over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In October 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued its growth trend, increasing 6% MoM and surging 55% YoY. Supported by better-than-expected demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, domestic lithium carbonate smelters maintained high production enthusiasm, with the overall operating rate remaining high.

By raw material type: Spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources all contributed to the increase.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 2% MoM. Leading lithium chemical plants maintained very high production levels. Non-integrated enterprises also sustained high output bolstered by demand. Additionally, output from spodumene sources maintained growth momentum supplemented by incremental production from ramping-up individual lines. Currently, spodumene-derived lithium carbonate output accounts for over 60% of the total.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 10% MoM. The increase mainly came from enterprises previously constrained by raw materials actively purchasing and raising their operating rates. Output from other enterprises remained generally stable.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 16% MoM. Output increased significantly due to production ramp-up of new lines, while other enterprises maintained stable production.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in October rose 10% MoM, primarily benefiting from the continuously favorable demand in the lithium carbonate market, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises. However, the overall production scale remained limited.

Currently, the lithium carbonate market still faces uncertainty regarding mine policies in the Jiangxi region. Nevertheless, supported by sustained positive downstream demand, domestic lithium carbonate output in November is expected to maintain October's production level, roughly flat MoM.

Demand side, the power market saw rapid simultaneous growth in commercial and passenger NEVs; the ESS market experienced robust supply and demand, with supply remaining tight. Battery cell and cathode material production schedules continued to improve in November, and lithium carbonate is expected to see significant destocking in November.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM statistics, domestic lithium hydroxide production continued its growth trend in October, up 6% MoM.

Smelting side, due to relatively significant demand growth for ternary cathode materials this month, leading to increased pick-up orders from ternary material plants, smelters maintained their production-on-demand pace, resulting in a slight production increase. Additionally, new production lines at some large smelters commenced operations and gradually ramped up, with their ramp-up process also contributing to the overall supply increase. This led to a 7% MoM increase on the smelting side. Causticisation side, most operating enterprises maintained their original production pace, with output remaining stable MoM.

Looking ahead to November: Individual new production lines on the smelting side will continue their slight ramp-up, while production schedules on the causticisation side are basically stable. Overall lithium hydroxide production in November is expected to see a slight increase, roughly flat YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In October 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production increased 2.17% MoM and 19.62% YoY.

In terms of raw material sources, after long-term production adjustments, the proportion of raw materials has stabilized. In October, the proportion of cobalt intermediate products was about 59%, MHP material about 18%, and recycled material about 23%.

Demand side, ternary cathode precursor production continued its growth trend in October. Some enterprises increased their cobalt sulphate procurement volume to complete their annual stockpiling plans ahead of schedule.

Supply side, enterprise supply diverged this month. Although some integrated enterprises implemented production cuts, the overall industry supply still saw a slight increase, driven by the resumption of production at some MHP-based cobalt sulphate enterprises and increased production from recycling enterprises due to rapidly rising cobalt sulphate prices.

Moving into November, downstream demand is expected to remain relatively stable. Coupled with favorable cobalt sulphate profit margins, some enterprises intend to further increase production. SMM cobalt sulphate production in November is forecast to increase by approximately 2.04% MoM.

Co3O4

In October 2025, Co3O4 production decreased 7% MoM but increased 26% YoY. The significant decline in output was mainly due to production line adjustments at a top-tier enterprise. Consequently, despite robust demand from downstream cathode materials, Co3O4 supply was primarily focused on ensuring production, leading to an overall tightening of market supply in October. Looking ahead to November, driven by further expansion in end-use demand, Co3O4 production is expected to rebound, with an estimated MoM increase of about 3%. Overall, the cobalt-based materials market maintains relatively high prosperity, supported by robust demand from consumer electronics.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In October 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production continued its growth trend, up 4.92% MoM and 18.59% YoY. The industry's average operating rate further increased to 49.13%. In terms of product structure, the market share of 6-series precursors continued to expand, accounting for 46.16%; the shares of other series were correspondingly squeezed, with the 5-series, 8-series, and 9-series accounting for 13.38%, 27.60%, and 10.41%, respectively. Influenced by the phase-out of some NEV subsidy policies next year, a noticeable front-loading of orders occurred in the current market, and demand is expected to persist until year-end. Additionally, strengthened expectations of rising raw material prices, combined with the early delivery of overseas orders prompted by the release of precursor export control policies, jointly drove further supply growth this month. The small power and consumer markets performed steadily overall. Precursor producers generally faced significant raw material cost pressures this month, with shipments from some small and medium-sized producers being affected. Looking ahead to November, precursor demand is expected to remain at a high level. However, as the market was already at a high level in October, November's production schedule is basically flat, with an estimated slight decrease of 0.11% MoM but still a 20.40% increase YoY.

Ternary Cathode Material

In October 2025, domestic ternary cathode material production achieved substantial growth, up 11.58% MoM and 43.08% YoY. The industry's overall operating rate continued to rebound to 55%. Regarding product structure, driven by robust demand in the domestic power market, the share of 6-series materials further increased to 44.00%. Although 5-series materials faced cost pressures, demand for the 5-series from the power segment also performed well this month, with its share slightly increasing to 14.81%. The shares of high-nickel materials were correspondingly squeezed, with the 8-series and 9-series accounting for 25.75% and 13.38%, respectively. In the power market, propelled by expectations of subsidy phase-outs next year and sentiment regarding rising raw material prices, Q4 demand performed strongly, and the high prosperity is expected to continue until the end of the year. Demand in the small power and consumer markets has been relatively mediocre recently. Overall, market demand in November is expected to continue improving, with production schedules projected to rise slightly, up 1.37% MoM and 39.76% YoY.

Iron Phosphate

In October, domestic iron phosphate production increased by 6.35% MoM and 59% YoY. The supply side of iron phosphate continued the growth trend from the previous month, primarily driven by robust overall demand from downstream LFP enterprises. Leading LFP manufacturers saw significant order growth, with some integrated producers already achieving full production of iron phosphate, collectively boosting demand for self-produced iron phosphate and keeping the externally purchased iron phosphate market relatively active. Additionally, due to strong demand this month, some iron phosphate producers restarted idle production lines to meet order growth. Cost side, in October, industrial-grade MAP and phosphoric acid prices edged up slightly due to raw material price influences; ferrous sulphate prices continued rising due to supply constraints, putting iron phosphate producers under heavy cost pressure. The average industry cost for iron phosphate is expected to increase in November. Coupled with tight supply-demand relationships in the market, iron phosphate prices are projected to rise modestly in November. Production-wise, iron phosphate output is expected to continue increasing in November, up approximately 3% MoM.

LFP

In October, China's LFP material production increased by approximately 10.5% MoM and 51% YoY, with an industry operating rate of about 74.4%. On the supply side, LFP manufacturers maintained high production enthusiasm this month, supported by robust downstream demand. Output increased across material producers, with strong order volumes for both NEV and ESS applications. Some leading material producers operated at full or even over capacity, with growing demand for high-compaction density LFP and high-quality LFP materials. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers exhibited strong overall demand, particularly leading players, which saw significant demand growth driven by battery swapping networks for pure electric heavy-duty trucks. Boosted by the traditional auto sales peak season "September-October peak season," demand from second- and third-tier battery cell manufacturers also improved. Furthermore, the ESS sector performed well this month; according to the latest survey, no ESS battery cell manufacturers have shown signs of reducing output, indicating high industry prosperity. Looking ahead to November, industry demand remains strong, and LFP production is expected to maintain positive growth.

LCO

In October 2025, the LCO market continued its steady growth, with monthly production up 4% MoM and significantly up 75% YoY. The growth was mainly driven by sustained support from the traditional peak season for consumer electronics on end-use demand, as well as strategic stockpiling by downstream enterprises in anticipation of tighter cobalt raw material supply and rising prices expected in 2026. Given the consensus among end-users regarding upcoming tight raw material supply, LCO production in November is projected to maintain an upward trend, with a MoM increase of approximately 3%. Currently, downstream battery enterprises have a full order book, and the overall operating rate of the industry remains high.

LMO

In October 2025, the production of LMO continued to rise slightly MoM, with the pace remaining on an upward trend. From the raw material side, the price of lithium carbonate rose notably in mid-to-late October, and EMM, the primary raw material for Mn3O4, also increased in price after the National Day holiday, thereby driving a slight rise in the price of Mn3O4. This significantly strengthened the cost support for LMO, prompting enterprises to raise their quotes to safeguard profit margins. From the supply side, enterprises maintained a stable pace of shipments, adhering mostly to a produce-based-on-sales model, without actively increasing inventory and being cautious in raw material procurement. Driven by the traditional peak consumption season in October, planned production rose slightly in line with the trend. From the demand side, the traditional "October peak season" for consumption boosted orders for downstream battery cell manufacturers, and coupled with the rising prices of LMO, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality among battery cell manufacturers became prominent, with some enterprises considering stockpiling. The market trading atmosphere slightly recovered, while the ternary materials market and the LCO market performed ideally, further driving a recovery in demand for LMO. Overall, the LMO market in October was dominated by favorable factors, with enterprises increasing their production schedules. It is expected that in November, as the downstream stocking cycle ends and market enthusiasm cools, the industry will return to a level of just-in-time procurement only, and the production schedule for LMO will also return to normal levels synchronously and show a slight decline.

*Survey Methodology

The SMM production survey is conducted regularly on a monthly basis by professional analysts through methods such as telephone and on-site surveys, tracking Chinese metal producers to produce the China Metal Production Report.

During the survey process, the basic coverage ratio of the sample is ensured and continuously expanded; at the same time, details such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring that each sub-item data is equally representative.

The report is released monthly at month-end through official channels such as the Shanghai Metals Market official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.