PV glass production increased as rising profits drove producers to ramp up production

Currently, the domestic prices for photovoltaic glass are increasing. The price for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is between 26.5 and 28 yuan/square meter, while for 2.0mm glass, it's between 18.5-20 yuan/square meter. These prices have risen by approximately 1.5 yuan/square meter MoM. This price surge is boosting profits for glass companies, leading some to increase production and capacity. Photovoltaic glass production continued to rise in August.

The current price increase of photovoltaic glass is mainly due to the rise in soda ash prices. Soda ash now costs over 3300 yuan/mt, a 43.47% increase MoM. This has quickly increased photovoltaic glass costs, leading to a price increase of more than 1 yuan/square meter. Meanwhile, scheduled production for PV modules in September remains high, despite a slight decline MoM. The domestic scheduled production for PV modules in September is 50.3GW, down 5.18% MoM, but still at a relatively high level.

Demand for PV module production has surged since the third quarter, currently leading the annual scheduled production. Last month's data shows that domestic PV module production in August was 53GW, a 14.04% MoM increase and a 130.7% YoY increase. The September scheduled production for PV modules over 50GW in September, indicating strong demand. Although the domestic installation rush hasn't started yet, the end-target for installation remains. Therefore, it's expected that scheduled PV module production may reach new highs in the future, potentially driving another increase in glass demand in the fourth quarter.

The production of photovoltaic glass this year is steadily increasing month by month, currently at around 2.1 million mt monthly. With the current PV module scheduled production, the supply and demand for photovoltaic glass are nearly balanced. While supply from leading manufacturers remains stable, some second-tier domestic companies are experiencing shortages, with occasional supply lapses in some areas.

SMM forecasts that photovoltaic glass prices may rise again in Q4. Winter is expected to drive natural gas prices up, supporting strong soda ash prices and exerting upward cost pressure. The Q4installation rush is also expected to drive PV module scheduled production to new highs, thereby supporting glass demand. From the supply side, domestic glass companies currently show little interest in starting new furnaces, creating a gap between new and planned capacities. New furnaces also require a three-month ramp-up period, possibly pressuring Q4 glass supply. Considering all these factors, the price of glass, bolstered by both supply-demand and cost factors, is expected to rise again.