The September-October Peak Season Is Coming to an End: Why Has This Year’s Galvanized Sheet Market Been So Mediocre?[SMM analysis]

SMM October 29 News:

As October draws to a close, this year’s September-October peak season is nearing its end. Overall, the traditional high-demand period has continued to underperform, with some companies reporting even weaker order performance compared to last year. Total consumption has fallen short of market expectations. Why is this the case？

Order side. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to September 2025, the floor space of new residential construction starts decreased by 18.9% YoY, while the floor space of completed residential buildings declined by 15.3% YoY. Demand related to the real estate sector continued to shrink this year. As temperatures cooled in September and October, domestic galvanized sheet orders saw a limited recovery. For home appliance sheets, stocking demand for some home appliances resurged in September and October ahead of the "Double 11" shopping festival, contributing to a portion of orders. Data from CAAM show that both automotive production and sales in China from January to September 2025 increased by more than 10% YoY, driving sustained growth in demand for automotive galvanized sheets. Additionally, according to SMM statistics, China’s galvanized coil capacity expanded by over 7 million mt in 2024, and capacity additions are expected to continue from 2025 to 2027. This ongoing capacity expansion has intensified market competition. As a result, although operating rates for galvanized sheets rose MoM in September and October this year, performance on a YoY basis remained unremarkable.

Price side. Domestic galvanized sheet prices continued to decline in September and October, further squeezing profits for galvanized sheet producers. Coupled with the market psychology of “rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn,” a wait-and-see sentiment toward purchasing and picking up galvanized sheets emerged, dampening order demand. Some producers opted to reduce output or slow down production line speeds in response.

Export side. The latest customs data show that galvanized sheet exports in September 2025 reached 1.2262 million mt, up 11.7% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to September 2025 totaled 10.44 million mt, up 9.87% YoY. According to SMM, the State Taxation Administration’s Announcement No. 17, "Announcement on Matters Related to Optimizing Enterprise Income Tax Prepayment Declarations," officially took effect on October 1. This policy is expected to rigorously crack down on the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms. In anticipation, some galvanized sheet producers rushed to meet shipping deadlines in August and September, leading to increased shipments. However, entering October, many overseas end-users adopted a wait-and-see approach pending further clarification on policy implementation. Overall market sentiment turned cautious, with some companies reporting a decline in export orders. Galvanized sheet exports in October are likely to decrease compared to September

Overall, domestic trade export orders increased MoM, driving up the operating rates of domestic galvanized sheet producers. However, domestic orders remained less profitable, export orders continued to face disruptions, and the peak season performance in September and October this year was mediocre. According to past patterns, as the weather turns colder, galvanized sheet orders may decline in the following months of November and December, and enterprises maintain a cautious outlook on the future market.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)