Analysis of China's Lead Product Imports, Exports, and Market Conditions in August 2025

According to customs data, China's refined lead exports in August 2025 totaled 2,752 mt, up 53.37% MoM and 1,417.05% YoY. Combined exports of refined lead and lead products from January to August reached 43,397 mt, up 40.97% YoY. On the import side, China imported 1,821 mt of refined lead and 13,380 mt of lead alloys in August. Total imports of refined lead and lead products in the first eight months amounted to 106,541 mt, down 26.12% YoY.

In August, the domestic lead ingot market experienced growth in both supply and demand. However, due to limitations in consumption and raw material supply, no significant lead ingot deficit emerged, providing limited support to lead prices and also hindering lead ingot imports. The SHFE lead 2511 contract fluctuated around 16,850 yuan/mt during the month, with a high of 16,995 yuan/mt, facing evident resistance at higher levels.

In early August, US non-farm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, well below the expected 110,000. Dissatisfied with the data, Trump dismissed the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, causing interest rate cut expectations to surge overnight. As the US dollar index plunged and weakened, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $2,019/mt. In late August, LME lead inventories surged by over 20,000 mt, significantly lowering the center of LME lead price movements.

From the perspective of the SHFE/LME lead price ratio, import conditions for lead ingots in August were relatively marginal. However, considering the domestic and overseas inventory structures, overseas inventories were substantially higher than domestic levels during the month, and a certain volume of imported crude lead continued to enter the domestic market.

The main source countries for imports of refined lead, lead alloys, lead plates, lead products, and other lead items in August were Malaysia, Japan, Laos, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia.

In September, the number of primary lead and secondary lead enterprises undergoing maintenance increased. The reduction in lead ingot supply led to inventory drawdowns, supporting an upward shift in the price center. However, the divergence in supply trends between lead concentrates (tightening further) and scrap (relatively loose), coupled with limited expectations for the peak consumption season, constrained the upside for lead prices. Nevertheless, the price increase still stimulated inflows of imported lead, and rising competition among suppliers pushed quoted premiums lower compared to August. For example, Japanese crude lead arrivals at Shanghai port were quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on a self pick-up basis in August, but by mid-to-late September, abundant imported lead supplies drove premiums down to discounts of 150-100 yuan/mt. In summary, SMM expects lead ingot imports in September to potentially increase compared to August.

Data Source Statement:

All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database models. This data is for reference only and does not constitute a decision-making recommendation.