Overnight, SHFE Aluminum and LME Aluminum Showed Mixed Changes; Weaker-than-Expected PPI Reinforces Expectations for Interest Rate Cut [SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing]

SMM September 11:

Futures side, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 20,780 yuan/mt in the previous trading day's night session, with a high of 20,840 yuan/mt, a low of 20,755 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,830 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous close. LME aluminum opened at $2,622.5/mt, with a high of $2,631.5/mt, a low of $2,618/mt, and closed at $2,622/mt, down 0.21% from the previous close.

Currently, the aluminum market's macro front shows a multi-dimensional bullish resonance pattern, providing strong support for aluminum prices. Internationally, US August PPI grew 2.6% YoY, expected to grow 3.3%; down 0.1% MoM, expected to grow 0.3%. The US August PPI fell for the first time in four months, strengthening expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut at next week's meeting, with the market almost fully pricing in three rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Domestically, the MIIT and five other departments jointly deployed a special campaign to rectify chaos in the automotive industry's online environment. Key issues targeted include: first, illegal profiteering; second, exaggerated and false advertising; third, malicious defamation and attacks. Fundamentals side, according to SMM statistics, as of September 11, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream domestic consumption areas stood at 625,000 mt, down 6,000 mt from Monday and down 1,000 mt WoW. Overall, the macro environment remains bullish; fundamentals side, downstream demand is marginally improving, the proportion of liquid aluminum is increasing, casting ingot volume is decreasing, but the aluminum ingot inventory turning point has not yet arrived, actual demand has not shown significant improvement, downstream enterprises have limited upward cost space, aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at 20,900-21,000 yuan/mt, but with interest rate cut expectations and peak season expectations still present, aluminum prices are expected to find some support below, and subsequent aluminum prices still need to wait for the realization of the peak consumption season. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]