China's non-ferrous metal industry demonstrates great resilience in H1 2025

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released China's economic data for Q2 and H1. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic operation in H1 2025, with Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the NBS, providing an overview. In H1, China's non-ferrous metal industry maintained a steady and progressive momentum in terms of capacity utilization rate, mineral resource development and security, as well as industries closely related to non-ferrous metals. Amidst a complex and challenging environment, the non-ferrous metal industry resolutely implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, conscientiously applied the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhered to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and rose to challenges, demonstrating the resilience and strong momentum of the non-ferrous metal industry's development.

Steady Progress with Confidence in Development

According to NBS data, after preliminary calculation, China's GDP in H1 reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, up 5.3% YoY, maintaining stable economic operation. In H1, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 6.4% YoY, with the mining industry's added value increasing by 6.0% YoY. The production of "PV, lithium-ion battery and NEV" products grew rapidly, with NEV production increasing by 36.2% YoY. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 6.8% YoY, with the mining industry's added value increasing by 6.1% YoY. By industry, the added value of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 9.2% YoY. By product, NEV production reached 1.234 million units, up 18.8% YoY.

In H1, the NEV industry, closely related to the non-ferrous metal industry, maintained a high growth rate, effectively driving the demand for metals such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, highlighting the consumption capacity of emerging industries.

According to NBS data, in H1, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 40.32 million mt, up 2.9% YoY. In June, the production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.95 million mt, up 4.4% YoY. In H1, copper and aluminum prices and production continued to lead the non-ferrous metal industry, with copper prices fluctuating at highs and aluminum prices remaining firm. From the perspective of H1 operation, in addition to the steady growth of primary metal production, the development of secondary metals was also remarkable, with product output continuously rising. According to the Secondary Metals Branch of the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to June, China's total production of major secondary non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, lead, zinc) reached 9.98 million mt, up 4.55% YoY. Among them, secondary aluminum production reached 5.6 million mt, up 10.89% YoY. This year, non-ferrous metal production is expected to maintain or set a new historical high, injecting stronger confidence and resilience into the industry's development.

Policy Empowerment Drives Green Transformation of the Industry

In Q2, the capacity utilization rate of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry reached 77.7%, a decrease of 1.4% YoY, but higher than the national average industrial capacity utilization rate of 74%. In June, the prosperity index of China's non-ferrous metals industry stood at 35.0, a decrease of 1.8% compared to May. Despite the slight decline in relevant indices, the non-ferrous metals industry continued to operate in a mild and stable manner.

In recent years, the non-ferrous metals industry has accelerated its green, high-end, and intelligent development, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity, implementing upgrades and transformations, enhancing competitiveness, and achieving high-quality development that is green, low-carbon, and sustainable.

The demand for "new three" products (PV, lithium-ion battery and NEV) continues to expand, and the application scenarios of non-ferrous metals are becoming increasingly diverse. The 20th China International Aluminum Industry Exhibition, held recently, showcased a wide array of downstream products. Exhibitors at the event noted that the downstream market is vibrant, with continuous orders for enterprises, and that aluminum applications are rapidly expanding into various fields. Additionally, the production of secondary aluminum and green power aluminum continues to grow, becoming the "new favorites" in the market. More green aluminum is entering production and daily life, contributing green power to global carbon reduction efforts.

Meanwhile, China has introduced relevant policies to promote the development of the non-ferrous metals industry. This year, the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027), the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027), and the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027) were successively released, providing broad prospects for the application of non-ferrous metals in new energy and new materials, and also comprehensively enhancing the industry's competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities.

Strengthening Resource Security

Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience

In H1, the national fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 24,865.4 billion yuan, up 2.8% YoY. By sector, mining investment increased by 3.4%, and manufacturing investment grew by 7.5%. Among them, investment in non-ferrous metal smelting and pressing processing increased by 9.1%, metal products manufacturing by 11.1%, and automobile manufacturing by 22.2%.

Over the past two years, China has actively promoted the increase and production of mineral resources, adopting a dual approach of "going global" to acquire overseas resources and intensifying domestic development efforts, providing a "double insurance" for resource security. Data from the Ministry of Natural Resources show that in H1, investment in mineral exploration for important mineral species increased significantly, with remarkable results. Exploration investment in tin, bauxite, tungsten, and copper mines increased by over 50%, while there were also increases in lead-zinc, molybdenum, and gold mines.

The achievements of non-ferrous metal enterprises in "going global" continue to be consolidated. For example, Chalco's Boffa mine in Guinea maintained stable and high production, Zijin Mining successfully acquired the Akyem gold mine in Ghana and a large-scale operating gold mine in Kazakhstan, and CMOC acquired the Cangahua gold mine in Ecuador. In terms of copper resource acquisition, through a three-pronged approach of tapping potential, mergers and acquisitions, and exploration, the overseas equity copper mine reserves and production have continued to expand. For example, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, Luoyang Copper Processing, and Zhongtiaoshan Group have actively deployed copper-based new materials, cultivated new quality productive forces, enhanced raw material security capabilities and discourse power, and served energy transformation and manufacturing upgrading.

In the first half of the year (H1), the nonferrous metals industry demonstrated strong resilience, a sustained positive development trend, and solid progress in resource security and green transformation, further boosting confidence in the industry's development. The nonferrous metals industry should focus more on the goal of high-quality development, unwaveringly promote technological innovation and green low-carbon development, continuously enhance core competitiveness and risk-resilience capabilities, and provide a more solid foundation for the sustained, stable, and healthy development of China's economy.

Confidence lies in the present, and even more so in the future. Through the impressive achievements in the first half of the year, we see the immense potential of China's economy and the increasingly strong resilience of the nonferrous metals industry's industry chain. In the future, we will respond to the uncertainties of the changing situation with the certainty of our own development, unwaveringly manage our own affairs well, and make the nonferrous metals industry even more outstanding.