The impact of Guinea's rainy season gradually manifests, with China's imports of bauxite expected to decline in August

SMM News on July 22:
According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 18.116 million mt of bauxite in June 2025, up 3.44% MoM and 36.21% YoY. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 103.4 million mt, up 34% YoY.
(HS code: 26060000)

Regarding the mainstream import sources of bauxite:
In June, China imported 13.324 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, up 0.76% MoM and 40.64% YoY. The shipping time of Guinea's bauxite arriving in China in July was still before the rainy season in Guinea, and the impact of the mine licenses revocation incident was relatively small, keeping the shipping volume at a high level. Overall, the total volume of bauxite imported by China from Guinea in July is expected to maintain a significant YoY increase. In August, the impact of Guinea's rainy season is expected to begin to be reflected in China's domestic supply, coupled with the disturbance of the previous mine licenses revocation incident, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to decrease.
In June, China imported 3.017 million mt of bauxite from Australia, up 1.92% MoM and down 1.50% YoY. Since mid-June, the port departures of Australian bauxite have all exceeded 1 million mt, showing an increase compared to the previous period. It is expected that the bauxite imported by China from Australia in July-August will increase MoM. However, considering that some Australian bauxite is exported to regions other than China, the total volume of bauxite imported by China from Australia is expected to continue to maintain negative YoY growth.

Regarding the non-mainstream import sources of bauxite:
In June 2025, there were imports of bauxite from 12 countries including Turkey, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Guyana, and Laos, with a cumulative total of 1.775 million mt, up 132.4% YoY, accounting for 7.02% of the total imports. The total supply of non-mainstream bauxite has repeatedly hit a new high in the past five years, becoming an important supplement to China's domestic bauxite supply. However, so far, non-mainstream imported bauxite is still mainly used as a blend.

SMM Commentary:
In terms of supply, in July, the impact of Guinea's rainy season has not yet been apparent, and the total supply of imported bauxite is expected to remain at a high level. In terms of demand, there has been no significant change in the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical alumina, and it is expected to remain largely stable. Overall, the fundamental situation of bauxite is expected to maintain a surplus pattern, putting certain pressure on the prices of bauxite bulk cargoes. Currently, domestic bauxite inventory remains at a high level, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, putting top pressure on bauxite prices. However, as the impact of Guinea's rainy season gradually emerges, shipping has already decreased. In August, the impact of Guinea's rainy season is expected to be reflected in China's domestic bauxite supply, and bauxite imports are expected to decline, making it difficult for bauxite prices to fall sharply in the short term. Overall, the SMM CIF index for imported bauxite is expected to oscillate around $70-75/mt in the short term.