SMM Data Analysis: Sluggish Market amid Weak Demand Led to a Limited Increase in Nickel Ore Imports

SHANGHAI, Aug 22 (SMM) - According to customs data, China's imports of nickel ore totalled 4.3711 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed) in July 2022, up 1.4% MoM and down 15.7% YoY. The MoM increase in the imports was limited, and the supply of nickel ore in the spot market was tight as well. In addition, the total import of nickel ore from January to July 2022 amounted to only 19.51 million mt, far less than the estimate at the beginning of the year. Among the nickel ore imports in July, 3.8533 million mt of laterite nickel ore were imported from the Philippines, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month, and a decrease of 19.3% year-on-year. The import volume of nickel ore from the Philippines was limited mainly because downstream stainless steel plants and NPI plants reduced the production due to losses amid a sluggish domestic market, resulting in shrinking demand for nickel ore. At the same time, plants would rather accept low prices and even lowered the prices of low-grade nickel ore to near its costs. As a result, mines were also less reluctant to ship. In addition, the imports of Indonesia NPI not only squeezed the market share of domestic NPI, but also exerted greater pressure on the imports of the Philippine nickel ore. In July, the volume of laterite nickel ore imported from New Caledonia was relatively stable and stood at 240,600 mt, down 5.4% from the previous month. The import volume of sulphide ore was about 325,000 mt, a month-on-month decrease of 32.5% and a year-on-year decline of 74.7%. SMM expects that the increase in the import volume of laterite nickel ore will still be limited in the short term. Although the stockpiling in the Philippines will start soon with the rainy season approaching, the sluggish downstream demand for NPI and stainless steel will prevent the demand for nickel ore from growing significantly. Therefore the supply and demand of nickel ore are expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming rainy season.