The Vietnamese market will be fully opened to the US. SHFE tin prices are trading sideways at a high level [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 3, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) hovered at high levels during the night session, closing near 269,400 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.05% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Tesla (TSLA.O) reported global auto sales of 1.26 million units in Q2, down 13.5% YoY, as its vehicle sales continued to decline sharply amid the company's shift toward autonomous driving. (Bearish★) (2) CPCA: Preliminary estimates show China's passenger NEV wholesale sales reached 1.26 million units in June, up 29% YoY and 3% MoM, with cumulative January-June wholesale sales at 6.47 million units, up 38% YoY. (Bullish★) (3) Tariffs - ① Trump: A trade deal was reached with Vietnam, granting the US full market access; Vietnam will pay 20% tariffs to the US, with a 40% tariff imposed on any transshipped goods. ② Vietnamese state media: The US will significantly reduce tariffs on various Vietnamese products.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely to maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Orders for tin bars in east China declined post-installation rush, with operating rates at some producers dropping; Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and just-in-time procurement orders; Other sectors: Stable demand was seen in tinplate and chemical industries, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Downstream acceptance of high prices remained limited, with smelters holding back sales and end-users making just-in-time procurement only. Traders in east and south China reported orders dominated by small-scale restocking, with high prices deterring inventory buildup.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice, and clients should exercise caution in decision-making, avoiding reliance on it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]