China Zinc/Lead Market Weekly Updates - 2025/6/13

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $53/dmt, with a 5.26% WoW increase.

The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-45/dmt.

Spot Market & Tender Updates

• Multiple tenders were seen recently, including New Century, Dugald River, and Black Mountain Mine (BMM), each around 10kt of zinc concentrate. All three closed on Friday, and results are expected next week. New Century’s shipment is scheduled for August; BMM’s for late Q3.

• It is heard that the Bisha concentrate has been traded in the low $50s/dmt range for Q3 delivery, destined for both Fangcheng and Lianyungang ports, with volumes around 10kt for each port.

• Zinc concentrate from Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet ’s Broken Hill Operation (via Perilya) in Australia was sold at similar TC levels, roughly $50+/dmt, also for 10kt.

• Some zinc concentrate originated from South America for Q3 delivery were heard offered around $70/dmt, in container terms.

• Zinc concentrate from Ozernoye remains available in Manzhouli and Jinzhou ports in China, with zinc grades at ~41–42% and lead around 4–5%. Volumes are estimated at 10–20kt.

• Imported lead concentrate spot TCs are going nuts with some extreme quotes showing up. This week, market chatter suggested that Glencore reportedly offered terms as low as $-100/dmt, and even targeted $-130/dmt.

Global Mine & Smelter Insights

• Following the fatal accident at Antamina in April, the mine recovered quickly from it and got ready to resume normal operations within a relatively short timeframe. However, a series of post-incident investigations and related administrative processes were still expected to have some negative impact on the mine’s second-quarter production levels. In addition, with the mine targeting its 2026 production strategy to prioritize copper output, zinc concentrate production is expected to decline more significantly in Q4 2025. Although Antamina’s official 2025 production guidance remains at approximately 440 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, the actual output could fall short of this target. According to SMM, under a relatively optimistic scenario, shipments for the full year may only reach around 400 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate. Furthermore, from 2026 to 2029, Antamina is expected to almost completely shift its focus to copper concentrate production, with annual zinc in concentrate output potentially dropping below 25 ktonnes.

• There are unconfirmed market rumors suggesting that regarding the 60kt long-term contract between Red Dog and Nanfang Smelter in China, the proposed import duties cost arrangement turns out to be that 10% of the import duty is to be borne by the Chinese buyer, while the remaining 90% is reportedly absorbed by Teck. This structure—if true—would reflect a significant concession on Teck’s part to maintain Chinese offtake amid elevated tariffs. However, the terms have not been officially confirmed.

• The market recently suggests that Sibanye-Stillwater’s tailings reprocessing operation at the Century mine in Australia is about to cease production and close the pit around June 2026. According to a 2019 technical report, the operation was truly estimated to have a remaining mine life extending to mid-2026, assuming no new resources are added and no expansion in processing capacity. However this projection was just a technical estimate based on then-known tailings volumes and throughput capacity, and does not represent a formal or binding decision to cease operations by that time. As of December 31, 2024, Sibanye-Stillwater’s latest Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Report indicates that the TSF (Tailings Storage Facility) Surface Proved Reserves at the site remain at 18.7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the project’s ore throughput in 2024 was approximately 6.8 million tonnes, suggesting several more years of production is still potentially possible at current processing rates. Other nearby deposits, such as the Silver King deposit discovered in 1987, remain in the exploration stage and have not yet been incorporated into the mine plan. Therefore, while the mid-2026 estimate remains a relevant technical marker, the actual duration of operations will depend on ongoing resource evaluation, market conditions, and potential development of surrounding satellite deposits.

Weekly SMM Inventory Data

• As of this week, total zinc concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 335 ktonnes, down by 10,500 tonnes from the previous week. The modest drawdown reflects a steady offloading activity. Meanwhile, as of 12nd June, social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major domestic regions totaled 77.1 ktonnes, representing a weekly destock of around 4.6 ktonnes, and a WoW decrease of 2.2 ktonnes. The drawdown was primarily driven by restocking activity from downstream users taking advantage of lower zinc prices which trended downward over the course of the week.

• Total lead concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports totaled 7 ktonnes this week, down 3 ktonnes from the previous week, indicating that tightness in the domestic lead concentrate market remains unresolved. Low arrival volumes and persistent procurement pressure from smelters have kept concentrate availability constrained. As of 12nd June, social inventories of refined lead ingots across seven surveyed regions rose to 54.7 ktonnes, an increase of 1.3 ktonnes on the week, and up 800 tonnes from last week’s reading. The inventory build is largely attributed to solid output and active sales by primary lead smelters amid strengthening lead prices. Additionally, with the delivery date for the SHFE 2506 contract approaching, some holders shifted their lead ingots into registered warehouses, contributing to the accumulation of social inventory. However, the overall increase was relatively modest.

Author: Yueang He, Zinc & Lead Analyst of SMM UK

Contact: yueanghe@smm.cn | +44 (0)7522 173725