China Zinc/Lead Market Weekly Updates - 2025/6/20

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $55.27/dmt, with a 4.28% WoW increase.

The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-55/dmt, with a drop of $10/dmt .

Spot Market & Tender Updates

• A trading house quoted Bisha at USD 40/mt to a smelter, and Antamina at USD 45/mt for September delivery. The standard lot was 10,000 dmt, bulk shipment, but they did not come to a deal.

• A trading house offered to a smelter a high-copper zinc ore with quality similar to Antamina's ore at USD 60/mt (containerized), and a clean ore at USD 70/mt, but they also did not come to a deal.

• Ore from Gamsberg was transferred into domestic trade and was reportedly concluded at RMB 3,700/mt for a 10,000-ton lot, ex-warehouse at port.

• This week, no cargo was available in Lianyungang; in Fangchenggang, offers were quoted in USD with various brands stored in bonded zones.

• Last week’s tender results unveiled, New Century was ore concluded at over USD 40/mt for August/September shipments, 10,000 dmt; Dugald River ore concluded at a price in the ~USD 30/mt, under USD 40/mt, for August delivery, also 10,000 dmt.

• Market sources indicate that Ozernoye concentrate has been flowing steadily into China, with an estimated 30,000 dmt per month currently. Ozernoye is quoted at USD 60–70/mt, available in both container and bulk form. It typically requires blending with other concentrates such as Dugald River or Kipushi before feeding into the furnace.

• Kipushi concentrate specifications: Zn 46–52%, Pb 2–3%, S 26%, Cu 0.78%, Ag 50–60g/mt, all in containers. A previous deal was signed by a smelter with a trading house on Kipushi material, at USD 45/mt for 15,000 dmt, with monthly arrivals of around 1,000 dmt.

Global Mine & Smelter Insights

• On June 16, Australia’s Polymetals Resources Ltd announced that its Endeavor silver-zinc mine in Cobar, New South Wales, has achieved commercial production. Production of silver-lead concentrate and zinc concentrate has commenced, with stable plant operations and ongoing optimization of milling and flotation circuits. The company stated that zinc concentrate prepayment will be received in June, marking the first cash flow, with initial shipments scheduled for early July. Silver-lead concentrate deliveries will follow. High-grade silver ore from the upper levels is expected to be mined starting August. The mine is projected to ramp up to its planned capacity of 1.2 million tonnes per year by H2 2025. Endeavor was once a major silver-zinc mine in Australia, and its restart took nine months with effective cost control. If production runs smoothly, zinc in concentrate output could reach around 20,000 tonnes in 2025.

• On June 17, India’s largest refined zinc producer Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) approved a capacity expansion project to build a new 250,000-tonne-per-year integrated metal complex near its existing smelters, expected to be completed in 36 months, with cash flow returns starting in the fourth year. The company aims to increase total refined lead-zinc output from the current 1.02 million t/y to 2 million t/y over the next five years. The expansion also includes 30,000 t/y of silver-bearing materials processing capacity (e.g., anode slime). Silver is HZL’s second-largest business, with plans to increase refined silver capacity from 800 tonnes to 1,500 tonnes per year. HZL currently operates three smelters in Rajasthan: Chanderiya, Debari, and Dariba. Debari specializes in refined zinc, while the other two process both lead and zinc. Total current refined capacity is about 1.1 million t/y: 900 kt zinc and 200 kt lead annually.

• On June 20, Glencore announced that its Mount Isa copper smelter in Queensland, Australia, is no longer sustainable and is awaiting a response from federal and state governments regarding financial support requests. Back in October 2023, Glencore had already announced plans to shut down the Mount Isa copper mine and associated operations, as well as the Lady Loretta zinc mine located in the north, with closures expected in H2 2025. In its early 2025 Preliminary Results, Glencore noted that Lady Loretta is scheduled for closure around the end of 2025. The Mount Isa complex primarily includes two lead-zinc mines: George Fisher and Lady Loretta. Based on public data, George Fisher produced ~2.9 Mt of ore in 2019, and Lady Loretta ~1.5 Mt, meaning Lady Loretta contributes about 34% of Mount Isa’s total ore tonnage. Its closure could reduce Mount Isa’s lead-zinc concentrate output by roughly one-third. According to current technical reports, George Fisher is expected to remain operational at least until 2036. In 2024, Mount Isa produced 289 kt of zinc concentrate and 92 kt of lead concentrate. SMM estimates that production may decline in 2025 to around 240 kt of zinc concentrate and 80 kt of lead concentrate.

Weekly SMM Data

• As of this week, zinc concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports totaled 325 kt, down 10 kt from last week. Meanwhile, domestic social inventories across seven regions stood at 79.6 kt as of Thursday, up 1.5 kt week-on-week. The build-up was mainly driven by weakening downstream demand and slower off-take.

• Lead concentrate inventories at major ports totaled 7 kt, flat from last week. Domestic social inventories across seven regions stood at 54.7 kt as of Thursday, down 300 tonnes during the week but up 1.3 kt w/w. The SHFE 2506 lead contract entered delivery this week, prompting warehouse-to-market stock transfers by holders. Social inventories rose mid-week but reversed as goods re-entered the market post-delivery. Under a weak-supply, weak-demand structure, lead ingot inventories are expected to continue a slight decline.

• According to SMM data, overseas lead concentrate output in Q1 2025 totaled approximately 588 kt metal content, down 1.8% y/y and 6.1% q/q. Australia saw the largest decline, producing 91 kt, down 12 kt y/y and 22 kt q/q. The drop was attributed to wildfires in January and flooding in February–March. North America also declined by 7 kt y/y and 12 kt q/q, mainly due to lower ore grades and reduced milling in Mexico. Weather disruptions were the main factor behind the shortfall, though a modest recovery is expected in Q2.

• Official May customs data is released. According to customs data, China imported 491.5 kt of zinc concentrate in May, down 0.63% m/m but up 84.26% y/y. Refined zinc imports stood at 26.7 kt, down 5.36% m/m and 39.85% y/y. Cumulative refined zinc imports for Jan–May reached 155.9 kt.

• According to customs data, in May, China exported 168.68 tonnes of die-cast zinc alloy, down 86.84% m/m and 79.09% y/y. Imports totaled 4,285.04 tonnes, up 13.6% m/m and 21.62% y/y. Galvanized sheet exports reached 1.1143 million tonnes, down 115.7 kt or 13.62% m/m, but up 2.18% y/y.

Author: Yueang He, Zinc & Lead Analyst of SMM UK

Contact: yueanghe@smm.cn | +44 (0)7522 173725