【SMM Hot Rolled & Cold Rolled Production Schedule】—— Maintenance Decreased & Moderate Profits, April Hot Rolled Production Schedule Increased as Expected!

• SMM Cold Rolling Production Schedule: Cold Rolling Production at Steel Mills Slightly Increased in April

According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned production of cold-rolled commodity materials by 31 mainstream steel mills in April totaled 4.4535 million mt, an increase of 28,200 mt compared to the actual production in March, up 0.64%. On a daily average basis, April has one fewer day than March, with a daily planned production of 148,500 mt, up 4% MoM from the actual daily average production in March.

Table 1: Planned Production of Cold-Rolled Commodity Materials by 31 Mainstream Steel Mills

Data Source: SMM Steel

• SMM HRC Production Schedule: Impact of Maintenance Declines & Order Profitability Remains Moderate, April HRC Production Schedule Rises

According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned HRC commodity material production of 39 mainstream steel mills in April totaled 13.9629 million mt, an increase of 296,100 mt or 2.2% compared to the actual HRC commodity material production in March. On a daily average basis, with one fewer day in April than in March, the planned HRC commodity material production in April was 465,400 mt/day, an increase of 24,600 mt or 5.6% compared to the actual daily average HRC commodity material production in March.

This month, SMM continued to expand the production schedule sample. The planned HRC commodity material production of 52 mainstream steel mills after the sample expansion totaled 17.3129 million mt in April, with the daily average planned production increasing by 5.94% compared to the actual production in March. Recently, steel mills' production profits have been relatively substantial, and coupled with the strong support from manufacturing demand during the peak season in April, the enthusiasm for producing sheets & plates among steel mills remains moderate. Both cold and hot rolling production schedules increased this month.

Chart-1: Planned HRC Commodity Material Production of New Sample Steel Mills

Data Source: SMM Steel

By domestic and foreign trade:
Domestic trade: The production schedule for HRC in domestic trade in April was 12.7529 million mt, with a daily average of 425,100 mt, up 24,700 mt MoM from the actual daily average production in March, an increase of 6.2%. In April, downstream demand remained resilient. Although some steel mills reported increased pressure in taking orders for cold-rolled products, overall orders were nearly full. Additionally, the profitability of sheets & plates was moderate, and the resumption of production at several steel mills in North and South China after maintenance in March collectively drove the increase in the domestic trade production schedule for HRC in April.

According to the SMM survey, as of April 7, the average order backlog of sampled steel mills this month decreased by 1% MoM. The order-taking situation this month showed some divergence, with some mills reporting increased pressure in taking orders for cold-rolled products recently. SMM will continue to track the subsequent order-taking situation.

Foreign trade: The export plan for HRC in April was 1.21 million mt, down 44,000 mt from the actual exports in March, a decrease of 3.5% MoM. The export plan for HRC by domestic steel mills in April remained basically stable compared to March. Since February 2025, the tariff war has continued to escalate, significantly impacting export orders to regions such as Southeast Asia, which has affected order-taking for some steel mills in North China. Against this backdrop, many companies are actively seeking other market opportunities. Additionally, some large mills have been less affected by anti-dumping measures, resulting in no significant deterioration in the export plans of steel mills this month.

Chart-2: Export Plan Volume of Hot-Rolled Commercial Products from Mainstream Steel Mills in the Hot-Rolled Sample

Data Source: SMM Steel

Maintenance side, the impact from maintenance on hot rolling in April was temporarily 421,400 mt, down 767,200 mt MoM from the previous month. The currently announced maintenance mainly concentrated in steel mills in east China, north China, and the western region. SMM will continue to track the follow-up situation.

Summary: The daily average planned production of HRC by domestic steel mills in April increased MoM compared to the actual production in March, mainly due to the recovery of profits in sheets & plates and the resumption of production by previously idled steel mills. Looking ahead, HRC production in April rebounded MoM, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase starting this week. Demand side, recent orders from downstream industries such as automotive have slightly slowed down, but overall manufacturing demand remains strongly supported in the short term. Apparent demand in April is expected to peak and then fluctuate before pulling back, with inventory pressure likely to rise in the latter half of the month. Overall, with strong domestic demand support and no significant deterioration in exports, HRC prices are expected to remain supported in the short term. Considering the gradual manifestation of imbalances in the HRC industry, the price fluctuation center is expected to shift downward in April.