SMM Analysis on China November High-carbon Ferrochrome Production and December Forecast

According to SMM data, the national production of high-carbon ferrochrome further declined to 707,600 mt in November 2024, down 41,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 5.54%; up 36,700 mt YoY, an increase of 5.54%. Among them, the production in Inner Mongolia was 530,000 mt, up 16,000 mt MoM, an increase of 3.11%. In November, the bidding prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by mainstream stainless steel mills continued to fall, exacerbating the losses for ferrochrome manufacturers and significantly reducing their production willingness. Sichuan officially entered the dry season, leading to a noticeable increase in production cuts or shutdowns among ferrochrome manufacturers in the region; other manufacturers in south China also experienced concentrated production cuts due to cost pressures. However, large ferrochrome manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, due to lower costs and relatively small losses, maintained production to sustain cash flow and comply with power agreements. As a result, the overall national ferrochrome production only slightly declined.

The national production of high-carbon ferrochrome in December is expected to be 595,000 mt, a decrease compared to November. Recently, the procurement prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by mainstream stainless steel mills have significantly dropped, coupled with high costs of imported raw materials, leading to increased losses for ferrochrome manufacturers. Additionally, the supply surplus in the ferrochrome market has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm downstream, causing difficulties in sales for ferrochrome manufacturers, with some already halting production outside of long-term contracts. Facing expanding losses, the ferrochrome market holds a pessimistic outlook for the future, and it will be challenging to digest the surplus inventory in the short term. Even in Inner Mongolia, where costs are relatively low, there have been frequent reports of production cuts. It is expected that due to cost and sales pressures, ferrochrome production will further decline.