SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment (Nov 1)

[9.21 Morning Meeting Notes] After the rate hike landed, US stocks rallied across the board, with a "bad news exhausted" rally unfolding. Overnight, the Dow rose 0.61%, the S&P 500 gained 1.14%, the Nasdaq advanced 1.69%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.14% (Arm up 8%, Intel up 7%, AMD/SanDisk up 6%); the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from 5.02% to 4.94%, and the US dollar index edged down to 100.22. After the market digested the hawkish dot plot, risk appetite recovered, and European stocks closed higher in tandem. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) retreated after a rapid rise in early trading, closing the morning session at 123,640 yuan/mt, up 0.62%. After the US Fed's rate hike landed, global risk appetite recovered, and macro pressure eased in stages; SHFE nickel's rebound momentum remained mild, and with nickel's own high inventory and weak demand pattern unchanged, in the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to trade in the range of 122,000-126,000 yuan/mt.

NBS data shows that China's sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) production in August was 7.984 million mt, down 308,000 mt from 7.676 million mt in July, a YoY decline of 15.5%. The cumulative production of sulphuric acid (100% equivalent) in 2026 was 68.141 million mt, a cumulative YoY decline of 4.6%.

In August 2026, China's total monthly sulphur imports were 272,323.414 mt in physical content, down 29.34% MoM and down 65.03% YoY, with the main import sources being the UAE, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines. China's total monthly sulphur exports were 48 mt in physical content, down 96.34% MoM and up 26.32% YoY, with the main export destinations being Indonesia and South Korea. China's total monthly sulphuric acid imports were 9,938.436 mt in physical content, up 831.85% MoM and up 1,051.37% YoY, with the main import sources being South Korea, Taiwan, China, Germany, and the US. China's total monthly sulphuric acid exports were 2,474.46 mt in physical content, up 153.47% MoM and down 99.43% YoY, with the main export destinations being Angola, Ghana, Cambodia, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Tanzania.