SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment (Oct 31)

India's stainless steel longs export offers remained largely stable WoW in the assessment week, with trading activity subdued amid limited buyer interest. Elevated freight costs, tight scrap availability, and higher alloy costs continued to support sellers' price expectations. European buying interest remained muted amid uncertainty over CBAM implementation and quota-related developments. Indicative export offers held at USD2,350–2,380/t FOB India for 304 bright bars and USD4,320–4,350/t for 316 bright bars; BigMint assessments placed both at USD2,380/t and USD4,330/t FOB Nhava Sheva respectively, unchanged WoW. Domestically, the longs market held firm with 304 bright bars at INR 230,000/t (+INR 3,000/t WoW) and 316 at INR 398,000/t (+INR 7,000/t). The near-term export outlook remains stable, with gradual improvement possible as overseas buyers return from the holiday period, though weak UAE demand and elevated freight costs are expected to limit fresh bookings.

India's stainless steel finished market remained firm in the week, supported by steady domestic demand, firm scrap prices, and elevated input costs, though nickel price volatility and high freight rates kept buyers cautious. In flat products, 304 HR coil held steady at INR 222,000/t exw-Mumbai, while 316 HR coil rose INR 2,000/t WoW to INR 440,000/t. In longs, 304 black bars gained INR 1,000/t to INR 205,000/t and 316 black bars held at INR 370,000/t. Export offers for 304 bright bars stood at USD2,380/t FOB Nhava Sheva and 316 at USD4,330/t, both unchanged WoW. On raw materials, imported 304 scrap edged up USD10/t to USD1,560/t CFR Mundra while 316 scrap surged USD100/t to USD3,150/t; FeMo 60% eased INR 21,000/t to INR 4,336,000/t. Pre-Diwali restocking to gradually support buying activity in the coming weeks are expected.

Severe water shortages driven by El Niño conditions have disrupted HPAL wet-process lines and RKEF operations at Indonesia's PT IMIP, with NPI output expected to decline by approximately 50,000–70,000 tonnes over a half-month period. Indonesia's Tsingshan has also recently raised export quotes by USD30/ton, providing Taiwanese (PoC) upstream mills with new cost-side justification for upward October price adjustments, partially offsetting recent declines in nickel and NPI prices. Market participants expect major Taiwanese (PoC) stainless steel producers to release October price lists shortly. However, with global nickel inventories remaining elevated and downstream demand staying sluggish, the extent to which buyers will accept the anticipated increases remains to be seen.