In H1 2024, copper anode imports hit a recent low, with monthly customs clearance volumes fluctuating significantly due to logistics impacts [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 67,000 mt of copper anode in June 2024, down 33.03% MoM and 27.76% YoY. H1 imports totalled 464,300 mt, down 16.47% YoY.

In June 2024, China imported 40,200 mt of copper anode from Zambia, accounting for 60.03% of the total, down 17.30% MoM but up 9.34% YoY. Imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo were 10,800 mt, accounting for 16.10%, down 42.10% MoM and 11.51% YoY. Imports from South Africa were 4,500 mt, accounting for 6.76%, down 11.23% MoM and 30.75% YoY.

In H1 2024, China's total copper anode imports were at a recent low, due to tight copper concentrate supplies and continued losses in the SHFE/LME copper price ratio. This aligns with market expectations at the end of 2023 for a relatively tight supply of blister copper this year (2024 CIF imported blister copper RC Benchmark was $116/mt, down $9/mt from $125/mt in 2023, also at a recent low). The significant drop in June copper anode imports was mainly affected by shipping schedules and customs clearance timing. Unstable logistics in Africa, a major source of imports, led to concentrated port arrivals, causing significant fluctuations in monthly customs clearance volumes from January to June.

Looking ahead to H2, the maintenance of copper anode smelters in the Democratic Republic of Congo in May-June may impact July imports. Overall, under the influence of tight copper concentrate supplies, the imports of copper anode are unlikely to see significant growth, and the annual imports are expected to remain at a recent low.