According to the latest customs data, the import volume of zinc concentrate in April 2024 was 287,400 mt (in physical content), up 17.68% MoM (43,100 mt in physical content), down 10.22% YoY. The cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate from January to April was 1.1788 million mt (in physical content), down 23.62% YoY.

The top three supplier countries in April 2024 were Peru (60,900 mt, 21.20%), Australia (56,200 mt, 19.55%), and South Africa (37,800 mt, 13.15%). The import volumes from Peru, Australia, South Africa, Mongolia, and Oman increased significantly, while the inflows from Indonesia and the Dominican Republic decreased to varying degrees.

SMM believes the reasons for the MoM increase in zinc concentrate imports in April are as follows:

1. There were fewer production disturbances in overseas mines in April, and some mines affected in March recovered in April, bringing some incremental output;

2. In April, domestic zinc smelters faced a shortage of raw materials, and the continuous decline in domestic and overseas zinc concentrate TCs reflected the tight supply of ore, leading to strong demand and an increase in import volume;

3. Some smelters received cargoes under long-term orders, which also contributed to the increase in import volume. Therefore, although the import window remained closed in April, the goods whose prices had been previously locked in, together with strong demand for raw materials from smelters, resulted in more imports.

In May, the import window remained closed at the beginning of the month, but zinc prices continued to stay high, and the high content of minor metals made up for the losses. SMM expects the refined zinc output in May to increase MoM, and the raw material inventory days of smelters have dropped to historical lows. The strong demand for raw materials may continue to favour the inflow of overseas ores into the domestic market, and some long-term orders from smelters will continue to arrive at ports. The import volume of zinc concentrate in May may continue to recover.