Review of photovoltaic glass prices in 2023

Before Q3 2023, due to the poor performance of domestic demand and the release of new production capacity and production ramp-up on the supply side, there was an imbalance in glass supply and demand, and the price trend of domestic photovoltaic glass showed a decline. Since Q3, the price of glass raw materials has suddenly risen, and glass cost support has gradually strengthened. At the same time, the demand for module production has risen rapidly. Under the support from cost and demand, glass prices stopped falling and staged a large increase.

The price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass fell from 19.25 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the year to 17.0 yuan/square metre in the middle of the year, and that of 3.2mm coated glass dropped from 26.25 yuan/square metre to 25.15 yuan/square metre during the same period. Since 2023, as photovoltaic module production schedules decreased, the demand for photovoltaic glass has begun to weaken at the beginning of the year. The reduction in the purchase volume of module companies has brought a greater downward impact to glass prices. At the same time, the cost support brought by raw materials also began to weaken as natural gas prices returned to non-heating season levels, weakening glass costs. The inventory of glass companies continued to accumulate, causing glass prices to fall again.

The price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass rose from 17.0 yuan/square meter to 19.25 yuan/square metre at the end of Q3, and that of 3.2mm coated glass climbed from 25.15 yuan/square metre to 27.25 yuan/square metre during the same period. The biggest stimulus for the price increase is the rapid rise in the price of sodium carbonate, one of the raw materials for glass. The price rose from 2,200 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton in just one month. At the same time, since the third quarter, module production schedules have increased. The monthly output exceeded 50GW, and the cost and demand support were strong. The supply growth of glass companies has slowed down, and some markets have even experienced supply shortages, which supported the rise in glass prices.

In Q4 2023, domestic module demand was lower than expected. With module price cuts, due to the compression of profit margins, the willingness to produce modules began to decrease, and the willingness to purchase auxiliary materials such as glass decreased. The demand weakened significantly, and glass stocks continued to grow. The fourth quarter continued to rise. Although glass costs increased during the period due to the increase in sodium carbonate prices, actual demand pressure was greater and glass prices fell.

SMM expects that the subsequent price will still fall slightly. One of the reasons is that the recent profit level of module companies has continued to weaken, the willingness to reach full production was not strong. At the same time, due to the Chinese New Year holidays, module production schedules are expected to decline, weakening demand; sodium carbonate prices are expected to decline in the short term. Although natural gas prices still have support, comprehensive support weakens. Therefore, overall, the glass price is expected to fall.