Iron Ore Inventories across 10 Major Chinese Ports Held Stable, Pellets Saw Most Significant Inventory Accumulation

Since September, many regions have introduced housing consumption support measures, launching policies such as home purchase subsidies tailored to local conditions to help stabilize the real estate market. Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that since September, real estate policies introduced across regions have worked from both the supply and demand sides, strengthening growth control. At the same time, various support measures have shifted from broad-based incentives to targeted incentives and directed support, precisely aligning with demand for talent and improvement-oriented housing. In the short term, housing consumption support policies introduced across regions help activate market liquidity. In Li Yujia's view, trade-in subsidies and lower credit thresholds directly open up the replacement chain between second-hand homes and new homes, and are expected to drive a phased rebound in trading volume in core cities during the September-October peak season.

The Milan Court of Appeal has rejected the request to suspend the shutdown of the hot-end facilities at the former ILVA steelworks in Taranto, leaving October 28 as the deadline for closure. September 16 marks a key operational point for initiating the shutdown process. The shutdown is expected to have a significant impact on both the domestic Italian and wider EU steel markets, with market participants expecting prices to increase as supply availability tightens. A senior Indian steel exporter said the reduction in Italian production would be bullish for regional prices, with the impact likely to extend beyond Italy into the broader European market. The loss of hot-end production could also increase demand for imported slabs for conversion into HRC, as mills look to replace part of the lost steel supply. Higher slab import requirements and increased conversion activity could consequently become an important feature of the Italian market as the shutdown progresses. For Indian exporters, however, the impact on volumes is expected to be minimal in the near term. EU quota constraints continue to limit the ability of Indian mills to increase shipments substantially even if European supply tightens. The more relevant impact for Indian sellers would therefore be through firmer Italian and EU steel prices, rather than a significant increase in export tonnage. Market opinion remains firmly bullish on Italian and EU prices following the shutdown, while imported slab demand and conversion into HRC are expected to increase as the market looks to compensate for reduced domestic production.

[Indonesia] Following a rise in HRC prices of approximately 5 USD/metric ton on Monday, prices are now considered stable and have not changed at all, remaining at around 525–530 USD/metric ton FOB. This is due to a complete lack of demand—as demand remains very sluggish—and possibly because delivery times are still quite long (around December), so prices have remained the same. Furthermore, there are currently no or very few orders coming in. Buyers may attempt to negotiate lower prices, but they remain in a wait-and-see mode, while HRC mills have not taken any action yet. If there is no movement at all—particularly on the demand side—prices will remain stable and unchanged for at least this week.