SMM Forecast for China Silicon Metal Output in Q1 2023

SHANGHAI, Aug 5 (SMM) - Following a small rebound, SHFE and LME copper fell again this week, with SHFE copper down for three consecutive days, and LME copper down for four consecutive days.

LME and SHFE base metals closed mostly with gains as the US dollar index ended its short-term rebound and closed down by 0.55% yesterday. The Bank of England raised the interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, the largest increase in 27 years, and at the same time warned that a long-term recession was coming.

However, the production cut wills weakened with the estimated restoring profits following the fall in the prices of chrome ore and coke. Ferrochrome plants, especially those in north China, maintained high operating rates with cost advantage.

According to SMM research, sulphuric acid prices dropped slightly recently by more than 100 yuan/mt after staying stably high since mid-July, which is related to factors such as low operating rates of downstream chemical enterprise.

SHFE nickel fell overnight and continued to decline today. SHFE nickel once fell 3.27%, but the decline narrowed to 0.99% as of the closing of the day. As of 15:02, LME nickel fell by more than 1.46%.

The light rare earth market extended the weakness today, with prices of PrNd oxide and alloy falling further. Separation companies were not very enthusiastic in making offers. The mainstream prices of PrNd oxide stood at 770,000-780,000 yuan/mt.

From July 25, 2022, to July 31, the throughput of copper scrap in the East China Nonferrous Metals Market was 8,300 mt, down 1.72% WoW.

LME and SHFE base metals closed mostly with losses because following the previously poor US GDP data, the manufacturing PMI, ISM new orders index, and monthly rate of construction expenditure of the US in July, which were released on Monday, all declined.

SHFE tin rose sharply today by 6.13%, but the increase narrowed to 4.38% as of the closing of the day. LME tin once rose by 2.35% and the increase narrowed to 1.41% as of 15:28, less than SHFE tin. 

Stocks in the power battery recycling sector advanced rapidly after today's opening, with an increase of more than 4% at one point. Specially, Dcenti hit daily limit, Narada Power rose more than 17%, and other stocks such as Huayou Cobalt, CNGR, Guanghua Sci-tech, and Camel Group all climbed more than 6%.