Upstream limit new production capacity phosphate rock or accelerate price increase in line with international prices

The supply of phosphate rock is tight again and again. On April 7, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments jointly issued the "guidance on promoting the High-quality Development of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry during the 14th five-year Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "opinion"). The "opinion" clearly proposes to strictly control the new production capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries. At the same time, the opinion actively promotes the development of high-efficient mining and separation technology of medium and low-grade phosphate ores and efficient utilization of insoluble potassium resources, promotes the reduction, resource utilization and harmlessness of phosphogypsum, and steadily promotes the phosphorus chemical industry to "determine production by slag".

People in the phosphorus chemical industry said that since April, the price rise of phosphate ore has started due to supply constraints. After the introduction of the national policy on restricting the upstream production capacity of phosphate chemical industry, the large phosphate chemical enterprises that have stopped selling phosphate rock will tighten their phosphate rock resources even more. Under the condition that the demand of lithium iron phosphate battery and new energy vehicle industry remains strong, it is possible for the price of phosphate ore to rise in line with international standards in the future, while the price of phosphate chemical industry, especially downstream phosphate fertilizer, is expected to rise with the increase of phosphate rock price as a whole. But in the short term, the increase in phosphate rock price will bring cost pressure to the downstream industry.

The price increase of phosphate rock has been started.

Ren Hairong, an analyst at Longzhong Information Industry, said that since April, phosphate rock prices have risen as large enterprises in charge of phosphate rock resources have suspended the provision of phosphate rock to the outside world.

Longzhong information industry monitoring data show that at present, 28% of the ship plates in Liushugou, Hubei Province are quoted for 670 yuan / ton, 30% of the ship plates are quoted at 730 yuan / ton, 24% of the ship plates of Xingfa Group are quoted at 470 yuan / ton, and 28% of the ship plates are quoted at 650 yuan / ton. the price is at least 10% higher than the previous week.

After the introduction of relevant national policies, Ren Hairong expects phosphate rock to accelerate its rise and be in line with international prices in the future. "at present, the domestic phosphate rock price is relatively low, while the international phosphate rock price is relatively high. under the condition that the downstream demand continues to be strong, the upstream limit on new production capacity, the future import of phosphate ore will increase, and the price is expected to be in line with international standards." Ren Hairong said.

Customs data show that the current import CIF price of phosphate rock is much higher than the domestic phosphate rock price. The CIF price of high-purity phosphate rock in India has reached US $295,300 per ton, which has exceeded RMB 1900 per ton according to the exchange rate, while the FOB price of high-purity phosphate rock in Morocco, the main import source of China, has now reached US $235,245 per ton. coupled with the freight rate of at least 1600 yuan per ton of phosphate rock, it has increased by more than 40% compared with the end of last year. Compared with the imported phosphate rock price, the domestic phosphate rock price has a lot of room to increase.

Ren Hairong said that the current price gap between domestic and foreign phosphate rock is large, so domestic downstream enterprises choose domestic phosphate rock as the source of raw materials for their products. After the introduction of the national policy, phosphate rock may be expected to enter the fast lane of price increase. When the phosphate rock price is in line with the international price, the import volume of downstream enterprises will increase in order to meet the production demand.

The increase in the price of phosphate rock is undoubtedly a good thing for large enterprises with phosphate rock resources. It is understood that at present, most of the domestic phosphate rock resources are in the hands of large-scale phosphorus chemical enterprises. Yuntianhua (600096.SH) phosphate rock reserves are 900 million tons, phosphate mineral energy is 14.5 million tons / year; 600141.SH group phosphate ore reserves are about 1.2 billion tons, phosphate mineral energy is 5.3 million tons / year, and wet-process phosphoric acid is 700000 tons / year. Hubei Yihua phosphate ore reserves are 130 million tons, and phosphate minerals can be 300000 tons per year.

People from relevant enterprises said that according to the current development trend of lithium iron phosphate batteries and new energy vehicles, the future development of phosphorus chemical industry is "those who get phosphate rock get the world." In February this year, Enjie shares, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Huayou Holdings joined hands with Yuntianhua with a total investment of 51.7 billion yuan to build battery diaphragm, iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, copper foil and other supporting projects, while downstream listed enterprises pulled Yuntianhua to develop downstream new energy projects together, mainly valuing Yuntianhua's upstream phosphate rock resources.

Downstream for a short time or under pressure

The shortage of phosphate ore may bring some pressure to downstream enterprises in the short term.

Longzhong Information related industry price monitoring data show that in the past March, the average market price of Yellow phosphorus in Yunnan was 34864 yuan / ton, up 108.93% from the same period last year. The price of phosphoric acid is downward, and the average market price is 10500-10800 yuan / ton.

It is worth mentioning that although the overall price of yellow phosphorus rose in March, once the price is high, there will be a price game between the upstream and downstream. Ren Hairong said that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell first and then rose in March. after the yellow phosphorus price rose to a high in February, the downstream suspended procurement. After about two weeks of downward consolidation, the price was as low as 31500 yuan / ton. Downstream enterprises and traders made a bottom bid, spot supply became tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus rose again.

According to the reporter's understanding, at present, the overall operating rate of domestic yellow phosphorus enterprises is not high, of which the operating rate of Sichuan and Guizhou yellow phosphorus enterprises dropped by 6% and 17% respectively in March, while that of Guizhou yellow phosphorus enterprises was only 33%. In addition, the main downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus are concentrated in eastern China, which is seriously affected by the epidemic situation of COVID-19. The start-up of enterprises is affected, and the downstream demand is reduced. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus has dropped. If the phosphate rock increases rapidly and the yellow phosphorus enterprises are unable to digest the raw material cost, there may be a situation of scale overhaul, reduction and price insurance.

Phosphate fertilizer enterprises are another important downstream of phosphate ore. After the price increase of phosphate rock, the phosphate fertilizer industry is greatly affected. Some people related to phosphate fertilizer production enterprises said that at the current phosphate rock and sulfuric acid cost prices, phosphate fertilizer production is in a state of loss, especially diammonium phosphate, chemical fertilizer enterprises without low-price phosphate rock sources lose nearly 900 yuan per ton of production. However, under the premise of national guarantee of spring ploughing, phosphate fertilizer enterprises need to ensure the supply of phosphate fertilizer. If the price of phosphate rock rises sharply and is in line with international standards, then domestic phosphate fertilizer enterprises will certainly not be able to bear it, because each ton of phosphate fertilizer will consume about two tons of phosphate rock, plus other costs, phosphate fertilizer prices will at least double than at present before it is possible to maintain capital.

Ren Hairong said that if the phosphate ore is in line with international standards in the future, then the overall price of the entire phosphate chemical industry will rise with the rising prices of raw materials. After all, it is not realistic to require downstream enterprises to operate at a loss; but in the short term, for enterprises that do not master phosphate resources, the operating pressure will be greater. For lithium iron phosphate and new energy automobile industry, due to the current high profit margins, strong ability to digest raw materials, the impact should not be too great.